German and EU Elections

I have this personal theory about psephology. (Election Prediction Outcome).

When a country / set of countries does well economically for a sustained period, the centre-right parties do well.

When that country , due to some reason, is doing bad on an economic front, the people would vote centre-left.

This is because, rising unemployment and other issues would lead the people to make a change towards a system that would provide them witha "safety bracket".

So, take a look at the German and EU Elections.

Because Europe is relatively doing good compared to other countries,

in Germany the centre-right CDU/CSU party led by Merkel won.

Same happened in the case of the European Union. The elections were won by the right of centre European People's Party (EPP).

In case of the U.S., drastic economic downturn caused the Democrats to overturn the Republicans. People were looking for "safety brackets" with respect to jobs.

India is the most complicated , and here, IMHO, the rural economy not deteriorating caused the centrist Congress party to win.

Our Deltas are Sinking

I was aghast at seeing the Ganges' water level at a recent visit to the Botanical Gardens. The flood waters were barely 2 feet from the railings.

Anyway.....Yet another factor why there is more flooding - due to lesser replenishment of sediments, the Deltas are sinking.

The various Dams that have been built across the Ganges and its tributaries come into mind. Ganges - well, the Tehri Dam. As to its tributaries, so many...starting from the Yamuna, Kosi and even the Tista.


Looking at a News Source : BBC . Reporting by R. Black

"Damming and diverting rivers means that much less sediment now reaches many delta areas, while extraction of gas and groundwater also lowers the land.
Rivers affected include the Colorado, Nile, Pearl, Rhone and Yangtze.
About half a billion people live in these regions, the researchers note in the journal Nature Geoscience.
They calculate that 85% of major deltas have seen severe flooding in recent years, and that the area of land vulnerable to flooding will increase by about 50% in the next 40 years as land sinks and climate change causes sea levels to rise"

The recently concluded Japanese Elections

The Democratic Party having come to power signals quite a change in Fiscal Policy, I would presume.

So often we forget that after all Japan still is the world's 2nd largest economy.

With strategically placed very healthy amount of Forex, Bullion, Reserves.

A harmless vortex, but..

Take a look at a longitudinal vortex appearing really harmless at about 10 degrees north and 90 degrees east. South of Andaman Nicobar.

I would say it is rather harmless.

But such complex is Nature to predict.

Given a warm stretch of water in the Bay of Bengal where it can derive its energy + the already vortex formation (which is in another Sat Image of Kalpana-1 showing wind directions) + no barriers of opposing low prssure troughs....who knows, even this harmless vortex might bring in considerable rain.

Life Will find a Way - that Famous Quote

Time and Time again I console myself with that famous quote from Jurassic Park - "Life Will find a Way".

At least one thing is CERTAIN - that increasingly Planet Earth is moving towards a more chaotic future courtesy the following -

• Over Population. Type in Human Biomass and you'll come up with some amazing facts and figures.
• Global Warming
• Effects of Global Warming - Hurricanes, Severe Drought, Sudden Floods, Desertification, Drop in Water Table level, Transgression of Seas,
• Global Conflict
• Reduction in Biodiversity
• Pandemics like H1N1, H5N1

But still, I believe in that phrase - "Life will find a Way".

So, here I quote from a certain Dr. Deb Brown -
"My 96-year-old grandmother is a vibrant, sharp-minded woman who spent most of her life gardening in her large backyard in Massachusetts, and her significant contributions to the American Hosta Society have earned her over 2,500 results if you Google her name.
Many spiritual Teachings tell us that we can learn all we need to know just from observing nature. So I asked my grandmother several years ago what she learned from a lifetime of gardening. She thoughtfully considered the question for a moment and then responded with a twinkle in her eye, “Life will find a way. The crocus will come up through the snow. The grass will grow between the cracks in the sidewalk. The plant that you think is dying will suddenly thrive. Life will find a way.”
I’ve thought of her words many times over the years, particularly when times are so dark that I can’t turn on the T.V. or the radio without hearing about death, conflict, and destruction. I breathe, and I remind myself that life will find a way."

And folks, incidentally, from now on, my Original Analysis / Original Writing / My Take will be appearing in Blue.

And I'm thinking of putting all my Blogs into this one only. Save 2 or 3 specialized ones.

Bengal Flood Prediction Comes True

I will continue to issue warnings regarding Flood Advisories, H1N1 & Bird Flu Cautions, Potential Tidal Surges, Drought Situations, Transgression of Seas & Mitigation Methods, other Global Warming Related Severe Side Effects, etc. so that the Government can take proper steps. I know that the Government faces a tough task having to rely on various media channels.

Do Note my Flood Advisory made on September 5. And do read in details the observations made. Of course, sliding the Kalpana 1 Satellite Dynamic pics Timer from the default 95 to 1000 milliseconds I noticed the DRAMATIC VORTEX FORMATION.

I rely heavily on the Indian Meteorological Department's website for the case of India. The Site's real good.

Do check out the following news :

Villagers were caught unawares after the DVC released water from the Maithon and Panchet dams, following heavy rainfall in Jharkhand and parts of Bihar.
The rising water levels are causing floods in different areas of Burdwan, Bankura, Hooghly, Howrah and East and West Medinipur Districts.
Consequently, over 200,000 people have been rendered homeless in about 150 villages.
“Water rose suddenly yesterday at around 9 in the night. Our homes have been inundated. We are forced to spend the day on the river dam, which is higher” said Runa Doloi, a resident of Singpur village.
Among the worst affected villages are Singhpur, Ramchak, Chawli, Mansukha, Khansbar, Ranichak, Ramchandrapur which have been submerged by the floods.
Over the past forty-eight hours 100 thousand cusecs"

Good reporting was also done in a local News Channel named Channel 10. I found they gave very up-to-date prompt reports.

IT'S A CHAIN-REACTION.

• Low pressure increases storm surge.
• Add the tidal surge.
• The strong vortex was going to suck up a lot of water and there was going to be heavy rainfall in Gangetic West Bengal.
• The sub-cyclonic formation was of enough width to carry it forward and deposit rain in the upper catchment areas.
• The reservoirs have to release water.
• The water raises the water-level at the lower Ganga Plains tributaries flowing into Hooghly, as well as those draining thru' the Sunderbans.
• The water due to moderate rain in Burdwan, Bankura, Hooghly, Howrah and probably even Midnapur and 24 Parganas next cannot go out due to the risen up water level.

Making Money from Gold , Silver Easier than Stocks

Above are snapshots of 2 softwares from the same company.

One, as you can see is buying and selling of stocks. Other is Gold.
As is evident, it's far easier buying/selling/place alert/put hold on Gold and Silver Buying.
Also, I heard, a few people have made a fortune from selling off their Gold held in Certificates.

But, yet we hesitate in Bullion and go for Stocks.

Is this another example of the "mass psychology" effect ?
The trading is probably governed by a long-standing tradition, as well as our ego.

Flood Advisory for the Bengal Coast

I did the following as a Project to see that a vortex formation of a Low-Pressure (Cyclonic) Disturbance was clearly there from 4th September 1 a.m. (01:00 IST).
I found this vortex growing steadily from 01:00 IST 4 September 2009.

Courtesy the Kalpana Satellite Pics.

Well, go to the Indian Meteorological Department Site:
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/img/sanew.htm

Here you have the dynamic satellite pics from the Kalpana-1

Satellite , Asia Mercator Projection. It's an ANIMATION. With sliced Sat Pics.

Make the Pause at 1000 Milliseconds. (the default is set at 95). Fill in 1000 to observe the Vortex Formation clearly.

Now observe closely.

You'll SEE the vortex formation.

It has the potential of a moderately heavy cyclone.

Now add the constant drizzling rain in the upper catchment area adding to the Hoogly and distributaries' water volume.

Also add 4 more Factors:

1. The Full Moon Tide Effect. 4 September was Full Moon.
2. Storm Surge Effect due to low pressure.
3. The Funnel shaped Bay of Bengal, resulting in the combined Full Moon Tide Effect & Lo-Pressure Surge Effect. Obviously experts must have made measurements with
Reynold's Number and what not in the different sub-channels.
4. The embankments that may be in bad shape.

One has to keep watch on potentially devastating floods

Innovative Telecom Scheme by a Major Player

Do take a good look at the INNOVATIVE schemes launched by a major Telecom Giant in India.

Source - Times of India Group:

"NEW DELHI: Telecom major Tata Indicom on Tuesday launched a 'pay per call' plan for its pre-paid subscribers, in which subscribers will have to
pay fixed charge on a per-call basis both for local and STD usage, regardless of the call duration.

"Our pre-paid subscribers will pay a fixed charge of Re 1 per local call and Rs 3 for STD calls for unlimited duration, said MD of Tata Teleservices Anil Sardana while launching the new tariff system. Tata Indicom operates CDMA-based mobile services in the country and has a customer base of 40 million subscribers.

The new tariff system, which will intensify the rate war, is valid on all calls made by Tata Indicom subscribers to "any mobile phone or landline connection on any network", said a statement issued by Tata. The new offer has also cut SMS charges to 50 paise per SMS for both local and national messages. "

My take -

This scheme will immediately draw a huge subscriber base towards the Tata Group.

My analysis is that younger people talk for hours on the phone, especially teenagers, young adults and women. So, now, with India having a HUGE YOUNG POPULATION, this is a very smart move. A huge chunk of the population will want to pay just Re. 1 for , say, 20 minutes of call.

A Gallup poll/statistical analysis will definitely reveal the actual figures for the URBAN areas.

Very smart business move.

Of course, I think, the other telecom giants also will see the wisdom and start similar schemes.

My Hurricane Bill Predictions - Part 6

As of 8 pm EDT, Hurricane Bill has weakened to a Category 1. Current max. sustained wind speed 85 mph. Expected to pass offshore of New England.

A Category 1 Hurricane has the following damaging potential - "Some damage to building structures could occur, primarily to unanchored mobile homes (mainly pre-1994 construction). Some damage is likely to poorly constructed signs. Loose outdoor items will become projectiles, causing additional damage."

Internal assessment of Hurricane Bill (National Hurricane Center) reveals -

"BILL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT WITH COLD WATERS AHEAD...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. BILL SHOULD BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AFTER THE CENTER PASSES NEAR OR OVER NEWFOUNDLAND.
......
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS."

So, my take is Hurricane Bill would be primarily WEAKENED DUE TO COLDER WATERS that it is touching.

But one has to keep in mind the damaging potential of a Category 1 Hurricane when it strikes the NEW ENGLAND AREA.

I should feel safe within a very consolidated structure at an altitude that would be beyond reach of the combined rip tide + storm surge effect.

Hurricane Bill Predictions - part 5

It seems Hurricane Bill poses much lesser risk now. Mainly because it will
TRAVERSE THE OPEN SEAS, far away from landmass. Though it will generate big
swells, rip tides and heavy rain.

But I'd like to point that many parameters makes anybody amongst us very
difficult to predict a Hurricane's exact trajectory and magnitude. But one
amongst these many parameters is the behaviour of the "lesser creatures".

Which way is are the Turtles and other Marine Animals headed ? It has been
shown time and time again that the lesser creatures have a sixth sense.

I studied this phenomenon in past 2 occassions - during Hurricane Katrina's hit
(which I could predict was going to be disastrous) and the Boxer's Day
Tsunami of 2004.

Countless examples of the animals escaping the tsunamis of south of
Banda Aceh, Sri Lanka & Tamil Nadu during the tsunami.

Check out the following article snippet:

"As Hurricane Bill spun north-northwest at about 20 mph Friday with maximum
sustained winds of 105 mph, Bree Varda, a loggerhead sea turtle, paddled due
south at a maximum sustained speed fast enough to put her in third place in a
10-turtle marathon"

"Bree Varda seems to be getting out of Dodge. She swam well west of Hurricane
Bill on Thursday, the last time she surfaced long enough for trackers to get
a satellite signal. She had covered about 314 miles in 19 days and was
heading south toward Grand Bahama. She trailed in the race behind two
leatherback turtles, a much larger species."

My take :

The turtles would instinctively go to the calmest water. So, their trajectory
might be perpendicular to the path of maximum damage of the Hurricane.

Though, being a wildlife enthusiast, I am against radio-collaring an animal
if it comes to any harm.

My Hurricane Bill Forecasting - part 4

Hurricane Bill strengthened upto Category 4 as correctly predicted by me. Do see last 4 postings.

Now, here are 2 things, according to my analysis, that are going to save hundreds of lives :

1. Trajectory Change. This may make a dramatic effect in weakening Hurricane Bill from Category 4 to Category 1, saving hundreds of lives.

2. Distance from landmass. Notice that the projected path with its area of influence will be outside Bermuda. Thus the effect on Bermuda may be that of a Tropical Storm or Category 1. Given the huge expanse of the
Atlantic.

Do see the following pic:

But, there is still a chance that it might wobble if there are UNEVEN ISOBARIC PATCHES.

Also, one has to remember that this is a Hurricane that is see-sawing between Category 3 and Category 4.

So, going by the adage -"Better safe and sorry" one has to watch for stretches of unusually warm water that might fall if the Hurricane deviates from the projected trajectory.

My Hurricane Bill Forecasting - part 3

My forecasting is PROVING CORRECT (Do see my earlier 3 postings), as Hurricane Bill, feeding on the warm waters,is now strengthening from Category 3 to Category 4.

If isobaric data were available, I could have given a real good forecasting as to which way Hurricane Bill would be moving. You see, if the Hurricane, changes course towards a warmer, moister stretch of water, it has the possibility of gaining strength to a Category 4.

Though I hope, it veers away from any landmass.

Check out source from Associated Press:

MIAMI (AP) _ Bermuda issued a tropical storm warning Thursday as Hurricane Bill regained some of its muscle, while dangerous waves and riptides were likely along most of the eastern U.S. coast over the weekend.
The Category 3 storm's top winds increased to 125 mph (201 kph), and forecasters warned it could return to Category 4 strength by Friday as it feeds on warm Atlantic waters. The stronger designation comes from winds that exceed 130 mph (209 kph).
"It's moving over waters of 84, 85 degrees Fahrenheit (about 29 Celsius), which could provide some fuel to it. We still think it could restrengthen back into a Category 4. The environmental conditions appear to be right," said Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center."

Meanwhile, here in India also, the Cyclone Season is coming up. This coupled with inundated flood waters due to rainfall in the upper catchment areas, can be disastrous.

After carefully studying NOAA websites, and even BBC, CNN 's reporting I am amazed at the way the developed countries go by the motto - "Better safe than sorry" and has developed levels of advisories.

My Hurricane Bill Forecasting is Correct

I predicted yesterday that given the huge stretch of unusually warm water Hurricane Bill will be Category 3 or even higher.

See the reasons please.

My forecasting has come correct as revealed in the following . Source: bloomberg.com:

"By Brian K. Sullivan

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Bill, already deemed a major storm, intensified over the Atlantic today and is forecast to plow toward Canada after passing between
Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.

Bill packed maximum sustained winds of 135 miles (217 kilometers) per hour, up from 125 mph earlier today, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at about 11 a.m. Miami time. That makes Bill a Category 4 hurricane on the five- step Saffir-Simpson scale of intensity, where a Category 3 storm, with winds of at least 111 mph, is considered major.

A weather front moving east across the U.S. will probably keep Bill away from the country’s eastern seaboard, said Jim Rouiller, a senior energy meteorologist at Planalytics Inc. in Wayne, Pennsylvania.

“This is a very dangerous Category 4,” Rouiller said by telephone. “The East Coast is lucky.”


It's good news that no major coase is threatened till now. But, it seems it is veering off towards the Canadian Coast.

Predictive Strength of Hurricane Bill

Well, the Hurricane season for the American Continent
started late, but check out the following :

source: noaa.gov
"The planet’s ocean surface temperature was the warmest on record for July, breaking the previous high mark established in 1998 according to an analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. The combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for July 2009 ranked fifth-warmest since world-wide records began in 1880."

Also, check out this source from Wall Street Journal :

"Citing warm ocean water and light wind shear, Dennis Feltgen, a National Hurricane Center spokesman, said Bill was "in a very good environment to continue to strengthen.""

My take:

This means that even if a future Hurricane passes through the warmer waters, it will have the source that would provide the core engine to BOOST UP THE STRENGTH of a hurricane.

Meanwhile, looking at the Atlantic map, it seems that tropical storm Claudette (weakened) near the Florida panhandle is in a different path from Hurricane Bill, and will have no effect with respect to Bill.

Now, check out Tropical Storm Ana, which has made landfall over Puerto Rico. Hence, it has weakened.

But if you have a Low-High-Low alternate isobaric regional patches, (which I don't have currently) that means, there is a medium probability that Hurricane Bill will move over the vast warm water stretches, and gather strength.

My prediction is it'll definitely be Category 3, or even more, but the direction it'll take is the most important.

One should not ARTIFICALLY BOOST markets

It just doesn't work in the long run. That's what I learnt from the GURUS of Market Economy - be it Warren Buffet , Alan Greenspan, George Soros or Benjamin Franklin.

As a matter of fact, artificial boosting of the market by injecting funds/capital inflows might HURT THE MARKET IN THE LONG RUN. Because, after all, you're borrowing it from somewhere.

So, as the following report goes, one needs to be cautious till about 2010 - middle, GLOBALLY.

Read this stuff. from Associated Press

"

By TIM PARADIS, AP Business Writer Tim Paradis, Ap Business Writer – 32 mins ago

NEW YORK – Investors are finding out what everybody else already knew: The consumer isn't going to spend the economy into recovery.

Major U.S. stocks indexes tumbled by the biggest amount in six weeks Monday as investors grew worried that they have been too quick to bet on an economic rebound during the market's five-month rally. Overseas markets plunged and investors' demand for safe-haven investments sent the dollar and Treasury prices shooting higher.

The Dow Jones industrial average skidded 186 points and the major indexes fell at least 2 percent. The Nasdaq composite index was hardest hit, falling 2.8 percent, but it also had the biggest advance as Wall Street rallied this year.

A shudder in China's main stock market touched off a wave of selling that spread to Europe and then the U.S. A drop in quarterly profits at home improvement retailer Lowe's Cos. added to worries that an improvement in the economy is far off.

Joe Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading LLC, said the selling was warranted.

"The economics obviously don't support where we've been," he said.

The slide on Wall Street was steep but felt more controlled than the plunges of the past year because stocks ended just off of their worst levels and because analysts have been calling for a retreat after the Dow and Standard & Poor's 500 index raced up 15 percent in only five weeks.

The Shanghai stock market tumbled 5.8 percent Monday as investors worried that stocks had risen too quickly and that the Chinese government would tighten bank lending policies. Investors outside China have been hoping that strengthening there would spill over to other economies.

Worries grew when Lowe's said consumers are putting off big purchases. That's troubling because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.

Some investors used to seeing a quick bounce-back in stocks have underestimated how difficult the recovery could be, even though many analysts have warned that it could take well into 2010 for the economy to regain strength. And some traders seem to be in the same mind-set as three years ago, willing to take big chances even when there was little economic or corporate evidence to justify a huge advance.

Now, with consumers facing high unemployment, weak home prices and mounds of debt, investors are worrying that they had grown too optimistic even though the stock market tends to improve before the economy after a recession."

Meanwhile, I've decided to totally cutoff Election Outcome Predictions and concentrate on the following AREAS for Predictive Analyses. I'd feel real good with a small 2-3 team of statisticians/sociologists/economists :

• Disaster Early Warning System ( I'll tell you about how I knew it was a Tsunami on Dec 26, 2004 within 30 minutes. And how I could figure out Hurricane Katrina was going to be a Major Disaster. I'm following the latest Hurricane Bill, BTW - given the fact it has a lot of water to cover from which it can suck in its "life blood" though I don't have access to data like surface water temperature (averaged) plus macro atmospheric dynamics. or say forecasting how dangerous a "bhora kotal" adding on a cyclone can be. )
• Disaster Management (say, how to rectify the "bunds" in the Sunderbans or the dykes in the Netherlands)
  
• Global Warming After-Effects (say glacier retreat and effects on the ecology/human aspect)
• H1N1, H5N1 and other Pandemic Predictions with respect to Magnitude. (For example, what are the risk factors for escalation of a pandemic)
• Alternative Medicines. For example, for the above Pandemics.
  
• I.T. and other technology trend analysis.
  
• Macro-Economic Projections.
  

And some other non-controversial stuff. But one has to do these things in a relaxed manner.

Indo - US Environmental "Green Deal"

Source: Times of India

"Environment minister Jairam Ramesh asserted that New Delhi was "simply not in a position" to accept any legally binding emission reductions and made it clear that India was not running away from responsibilities on the issue.

The minister's comments came at a joint press conference with US secretary of State Hillary Clinton after she toured the ITC Green Building here which showcases environment-friendly practices in India.

The US wants India to agree to limit its carbon emissions ahead of the signing of a new UN climate treaty in Copenhagen in December.

Giving a suggestion in this regard, Clinton pointed out that India's green house gas pollution was projected to grow by about 50 per cent between now and 2030 and the country was vulnerable to climate change."

My take :

This is great dialogue. Mrs. Hillary Clinton is 100% right in stating that Green House Gas Pollution may grow 50% by 2030. Of course, she is looking at the Global Scenario, the immense Green House Emission problem caused by the BRIC countries. She does have a point.

Now, I read in the detailed Times of India News that in lieu of reducing the Green House Gas pollution, Dr. Jairam Ramesh has offered to increase the forest cover. Now, increase of forest cover would automatically suck in/recycle the Green House Gases. This is a wonderful idea that Global Environmentalists/ Wildlife enthusiasts would agree upon.

What better way to counter GreenHouse Emission than by Nature itself ? Though, we have seen time and time again, that this is a very complicated issue - choosing the right flora, and introduction of the right fauna into the afforested areas.

Case in point - Australia.

However, once the afforestation sets in either through prevention of tree/shrub clearing OR planting new saplings, I'm sure, with India's biodiversity, the newly introduced (either artificially or naturally) species will do greatly

Some Interesting Global Snippets...

Back after a long period.

Some Global Snippets of Reality :

• Team Obama's amazing Flexibility and Open Government Initiative is truely historic. Feedback from anybody can be filtered, analysed and positive steps can be taken.

• My outcome prediction for 38 out of 42 seats for the state of West Bengal came correct. That's an accuracy of 90.47 %. I spent a lot of time on this particular matter, and was myself astounded by my success. Beat all the Media & Surveys.

• Europeaan Union's Elections..makes me think - had I access to the Data 5 months back - would have been interesting trying to figure out predictive analysis. I guess India lacks the maturity to hear the Truth, but the EU doesn't. Jus' kidding ;-)

• Silver 'n' Gold. My prediction made 1.5 years back are holding steady.

• Global Economy at the same time is slowly recovering. Thanks to the long-term vision and unity between the North American, EU and Pacific Rim countries. As also co-operation from the BRIC, Mid-East and other parts of the World.

• Great Initiative by Obama's Team as also EU and other countries in understanding the problems of the Islamic Bloc and negotiating with the Mid-East countries. Truly historic from a Geopolitical sense.

Sectors that should beat a real heavy Recession

Let me first begin by making an off-tangential remark. Market visionaries or techno-financial gurus from whom I have learnt certain things basically share certain traits - they're invariably introverted, shy and hesitant to share their wisdom acquired. Examples, cutting across countries and all barriers are - Warren Buffet (currently the world's richest), George Soros, B. Franklin, Dr. Manmohan Singh, Rakesh Jhunjunwala,Arun Jaitley, Dr. Amartya Sen. Another thing to note is that quite a few of these people sometimes chose not to make a lot of money, examples being Dr. M.Singh, B. Franklin (whom Warren Buffet follows) amongst others.

Now, here's a real fast analysis of sectors that should beat a real heavy recession. (Note that I am assuming a real heavy one). The rationale behind is also synopsised :

1. Healthcare and Medical. Reason is a long-drawn Recession would invariably make quite a large segment of the population sick from the prolonged stress and intra and inter-contry strifes.

2. Petroleum. Though there are recent downturns..it stands that the Global Petroleum reservoirs' supply/demand would encourage companies to maximise profit. This is an unfortunate truth.

3. Agro-based. Since this is a new sector, and a reduced venture capital influx to Industries, in general would encourage shift of capital to this sector.

4. Fertilisers. Since this is dependent on Agriculture.

5. Pharmaceuticals. Since this is dependent on Med.

6. Bullion-based. As well as certain Metals. Reason being people investing in them as a hedge against inflation.

7. Certain Finance sectors. This is because people will tend to park their money back into safer instruments. But I guess one should exercise caution as quite a few might fail. So, in this particular Sector, I guess one should be highly cautious of stocks.

Sectors that should not lose out are - Core Engineering, Petrochem, certain segments of Infrastructure, etc..

Global Economic Recovery Strategies ..part 2

As there are forums and conferences going on in Davos and other places on tackling the Global Economic Meltdown..
Certain points for pondering :

• Much research has to be done on Strategic Partnerships vis a vis Countries. The European Union has had a head-start only due to analysis of such data.
• Economic partners should be such that they are not much skewed in one
  direction. That is, one country should not be dependent on a single
  country vis a vis Imports, or even Exports.
• Big Companies will struggle to keep afloat. So, they have to sub-contract at a cheaper price Projects / Consultancy Work to smaller companies. I see lot of small companies who have the necessary overall
  idea about Global Macro-Economics profitting.
• Trade and other Deficits. It is unbelievable how such simple things could have been overlooked, even a schoolkid can do the basic maths. I guess we need Economic "Ankit Fadia" s (the legendary cyber-security expert)..the entire Macro-Economic Model that the Capitalist Bloc of
  Countries is TOO MUCH REGIMENTED.

Disclaimer : If you've received this in your e-mail, it's part of my auto-forwarding list..which I sometimes forget revising in a hurry.

Global Economic Recovery thoughts...

Seems like the cryptic message (last posting) is havinbg some effect....
Anyway, coming back to ground reality regarding this Global Economic Meltdown...some points to ponder :

• How come most "expert" business / finance portals show the STOCK INDICES on a LINEAR SCALE ?
• Why not a SCALE based on %WISE...or logarithmic ?
• Anyone made a QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS of the COMPARATIVE SUCCESS within the last 10 years of the 4 MAJOR CAPITALIST BELTS : the U.S. - Canada belt, the EU (European belt), the Pacific Rim Belt and the Developing Countries' belt ?

Points to ponder indeed...........

Indian Mainstream Media Can't make Correct Psephological Analysis..part 1

Take the Mayavati ("behenji") FACTOR !

Assembly Elections of the Indian States of Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Delhi , Rajasthan are out..
20+ ODD NEWS CHANNELS MISSED OUT on the Mayavati Factor ! Urban, sophisticated, journalism school elite man these channels...BUT THEY CAN'T FATHOM THE WIDTH & DEPTH OF THE MAYAVATI FACTOR.

Like they couldn't fathom in 2004 Lok Sabha Elections..But my prediction came 5 short of the NDA figure (there was a Prize Winning Contest by a leading News channel also)..

I did DETAILED PSEPHOLOGICAL CALCULATIONS..But I also factored in the discussions I had with 7+ people aboard a Sleeper Class 3010 Down Doon Express I was travelling, Dehra Dun - Howrah April 2004 THROUGH THE HINDI "HEART OF INDIA"..and I came near the Truth, Vinod Dua ee-style - Rural India was "not shining"..1 of the 7 only ventured into the share markets, but - "Market se to hum bhi thora kamaya..par hamara chota mota Textile Business ka bara baj giya"..revelation indeed.

This HINDI "HEART OF INDIA" HAS TO BE UNDERSTOOD TO UNDERSTAND INDIA !!! Shame on us that a few Westerners can even make better ANALYSIS..from the time of Jim Corbett.

This HINDI "HEART OF INDIA" accounts for 65% of the Lok Sabha 543 seats. Geographically almost 50% of India..the rest of India is DIVIDED..Do the calculations..

The Dalits, the "ati pichchal jati" , the minorities of India, even the poor Brahmins..residing in villages where there is no electricity (Read the Census of India 2001 >> I think 40-60% still don't have electricity)..are VOTING QUITE CONSIDERABLY FOR MAYAVATI..not in great numbers yet..

But a quiet non-violent revolution is going on in the HEART OF INDIA.
Look at the seats which are being picked up by the BSP...where it had NO PRESCENCE beforehand !

U.P. (Lok Sabha 80 seats) - BSP is the single largest party..sweeping the last Assembly elections.
But these elctions throw up a SURPRISE !

BSP is picking up seats in Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Rajasthan , Chattisgarh..very few. But there was no prescence of the BSP in these remote areas. In previous elections it picked seats in other states, also.

But what does it SAY ?
The stunning GEOGRAPHICAL SIZE INTO WHICH THE BSP HAS PENETRATED...

My prediction is :
Ram Vilas Paswan played the 'kingmaker' of Bihar in the last Bihar ka Assembly elections with even a few seats.

Mayavati is NOW IN A POSITION to play the 'kingmaker' in the NEXT LOK SABHA ELECTIONS..She is cutting into the votebank of the BJP & Congress. Hence both are losing seats. Primarily into the votebank of the BJP.
The BJP stunned everybody by its meteoric rise way back in 1999..now it may be the BSP. It may even get 50-60 seats out of 543. Greater impact is it will erode seats of BJP & Congress due to the "Swing Factor" + Anti-Incumbency Factor.

The party which allies with BSP..pre-electoral adjustments made correctly will heap RICH DIVIDENDS.

Post-Obama projections...OMG I'll be terribly unpopular

Change was needed. There was no doubt about that. But..may I ask a few questions at the RISK OF BEING HIGHLY UNPOPULAR:

• EXPERIENCE. Was it that hard to find someone as experienced , or half as experienced as Gen Colin Powell ?
  
• Obama will have to rely HEAVILY on Advisors..Good to see some Google people being inducted into their ranks -)
• The Global Economic Meltdown..the trillions of $ of deficits of many countries..Anybody has ANY IDEA as to the UNITED ELITE TEAM that has to be formed to save the Economy ??? Warren Buffet's a real good choice, yeah..But didn't somebody say.."The Buck Stops here" -) Advisors can give advice..but to sort out the relevant and make a DECISION..that's what counts
  
• Defense Policies..Zbrenewski (heck, I'll have to check on the spelling) is an excellent foreign policy advisor. Though I do not agree totally with his hardliner policies. But what about the conflict / DISUNITY amongst the team ? I liked Zbrenewski ;-) he gave a HARD TIME to the BBC anchorman hosting Hard Talk..for a change. Heh..heh
• The reaction from the EU has been not that vigorous..which makes me thinking. They seem to be MORE IN TOUCH WITH THE ECONOMIC REALITIES than the HYPE stuff in the U.S. of A.
• The U.S. of A. that I saw in the 1988-94 Era..was a very CONFUSED , disoriented one. Now I do not have any objection with the stuff they used to watch on T.V...but I was aghast at THEIR KNOWLEDGE of World Affairs..as opposed to the VETERANS (people in their 60's say)..I hope Obama chooses some of the veterans..
• Most importantly, COME AT AN UNITED POLICY..be it Foriegn Poilicy, Global Security Issues, Economic Policies..
  

Non-Disclaimer to my ex-Professors / Economists / others on auto forward list: Your comments / feedback are most welcome on this blog. No need to e-mail me. Your writing directly on this blog will be a GLOBAL DEBATE we most need. FEEL FREE......

ECONOMIC NOSTRADAMUS...It is a bit painful to see the Future

Yeah..folks. But the TRUTH that is unfolding has to be told. It is a combination of
GEOPOLITICAL FACTORS, MARKET TRENDS....and WAR.

The TRUTH, as I see it is...my dear Friends :

THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC MELTDOWN WILL CONTINUE. People ignored stalwarts like George Soros, Warren Buffet..You all want to hear the TRUTH...don't you ?

THE DEFICIT...GLOBAL, NATIONWISE,STATEWISE..shall have to be DECREASED. There will be many casualties..Financial Institutions will collapse.

Individually, loan-takers will suffer. SACRIFICES HAVE TO BE MADE..LOANS HAVE TO BE RECOVERED, AND WILL BE RECOVERED BY BANKS.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC MELTDOWN WILL HAVE MANY GEOPOLITICAL UPSETS :

• Obama has a greater chance of becoming President of the U.S. Yes, the tables have turned. But...to turn around the U.S. Economy will be a task greater than that what Roosevelt (WW2) faced.
• Russia > Putin or his protege will turn stronger. Russia will grow strong. Look Westwards.
• India > NDA will come to power. Some Indian States will see greater turmoil if issues are handled by people who DO NOT UNDERSTAND THE GLOBAL SCENARIO.
• Japan will grow stronger. Will start building its military.
• China will start facing confusion and economic slowdown, and possibly disaster. Sorry, but you cannot change what is coming.
• Mid East countries, rich in Oil..will grow stronger. And start calling the shots. Strategic oil trade partnerships will decide a lot of which countries will propsper amongst the Non Aligned Countries.
• European Union will grow stronger. A great merger /sub-merger of nations will start to happen.
• Financial mergers on a STRATEGIC SCALE. Globally speaking.
• WAR. There is quite a possibilty that we will see World War 3. Sorry if I sound shocking, but that's Reality..
  

Think about World War 2 ..Did it have a specific date ? ? we all like to put a date...But,
When did it really start ? Food for thought indeed.

Sorry...but that's what I see in the Future - ESCALATION OF CONFLICTS..

I discovered my PERSONALITY TYPE, BTW - the ORACLE..
I wasn't exactly pleased, to be quite frank..being the ORACLE can be bit painful, you
see....IT IS NOT EASY TO "SEE" A GREAT WAR COMING...BUT THAT WILL BE THE REALITY YOU WILL ALL FACE..

Disclaimer : I keep changing my auto-forwarding list so often....sometimes in a hurry
forget revising the names...hope this doesn't reach the wrong person....hope you go through ALL my blogs 'n' enjoy the new look

"Industrial Capitalism" versus "Financial Capitalism"

Clearly, "Industrial Capitalism" is the backbone...that creates infrastructure, creates employment. Most importantly, it creates a "chain reaction" to create more industries.

Also, innovative and creative spirit has to be there behind this brand of capitalism.

Any economy that is making a transition from a "socialist model" should benefit mostly from the clean, efficient, planned implementation of this brand of capitalism.

"Financial capitalism" is speculative....recent developments showing the collapse of many stalwarts have led to panic. But still, it is necessary as the tool for raising/pumping in money into the industry.

Let us take 3 hypothetical industries : RAMO, SAMO and TAMO.

RAMO is on a high...
TAMO stocks are currently low...

Now, a shrewd investor, seeing TAMO's potential would buy it...Quite a few would...

This would result in much needed influx of capital into TAMO....which can increase productivity.

But the problem with "Financial Capitalism" is the fast-buck approach that has led to the collapse of the giants...sub-prime lending being amongst them....

Global Economic Meltdown...steps to rectify it

I had a talk with one of my friends, a top-notch banking official...who pointed out a very significant fact : the relative insularity of the Indian nationalized banks, and more importantly, the Indian economy. He was right in saying that "sudden mindless liberalization" has led in the past...to the collapse of some S.Asian economies. Indonesia is an example.

Yes, Indian markets are protected due to this factor..but there are other severe risks we run..like scarcity of oil production, rapid percentage of population growth (especially the younger generation that would be consuming at a higher rate)....but that is later. Ki Bolish re...boshe discuss korte hobe toder 3 jon'er saathe. Ar Gabon'er contact'tao dish to...(jader kache auto-forward korlam)

The Global Economic Meltdown is inevitable , unless these steps are taken :

1. Alternative Energy Sources are found. A huge chunk of money has to go into the R & D of this.
2. We all talk about individuals should learn to conserve oil...but in real life..ask yourself the question - how many do ? And can you check it ? So what must be done is a strict check should be put on the oil companies..their startegic mergers and demergers..so that the gasoline price comes down.
   
3. Sub-prime lending to dubious companies is not stopped.
4. Loan recovery has to be stringent.
   
5. Loans are given to publicize a bank. Let this publicity be curtailed. A person in need of loan is tempted by the glitzy advertisements...nowadays every second person I know has taken a humongous amount of loan...
6. A country's loan !!! How could the U.S. ignore stalwarts like Warren Buffet, Soros...their warnings..I wonder ?
7. War Economy will continue..it is inevitable..as far my prediction goes..so one should follow Japan's genius Macro-Economic Strategy of Forex and Bullion Reserve.
   

Brilliant pieces of writing....

I'm referring to Mr. Sankarshan Thakur's article in a Calcutta-based newspaper "The Telegraph"...

where he talks of a new horrifying phenomenon in India , aptly named Mobocracy.

Arre..oi office'e kotodin jaoa hoi nai..

I met Mr. Thakur once..I was on the opposite side of the table. Just exchanged a few words with him. He was real, real busy...while most of the others in the Office were gossiping. Your covering of the Kargil War was the best. Though I think Ms. Barkha Dutt gave you run for your money, huh ? Drass, Batalik or which sector ..I've forgotten. Tiger Hill'ka strategic capture I remember..

LOC' ka theory wrong hai..ji. Apun ka aisa hi lagta hai.

telegraph'e dui jon Pothik..arre Dada mone acche..junior tumi'o to gurudev. gondogol hoye jai. Aro kara kara jeno aache ?

Identity crisis hoye jacche mairi...

Statesman'eo jaoa hoi nai..koto kal..arre I.T. 'ke thik bhabe kaaje lagate parle hoye jeto.

Asian Age'e ar TOI 'te jeno kara kara ?

Ganashakti ar Bangla kagoj 'guloi jete hobe mone hochche..Eto jhamela..life heaven kore dilo property dispute.

Some facts that are pointers to the future....

Quoting Sheela Bhatt in New York City (source > rediff) :

"Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh will be meeting the Republican nominee for US presidency, Senator John McCain , on September 24 in New York. Significantly, Dr Singh will not be meeting the Democratic nominee for the President's post, Senator Barack Obama"

.........Acc to my calculations....next U.S. Prez would be John Mc Cain due to factors pointed out earlier....60% sure...

this is only further confirmation/ pointer.....

Disclaimer : I keep changing my auto-forwarding list so often....sometimes in a hurry forget revising the names...hope this doesn't reach the wrong person

Global Economic Meltdown ...how I saw it coming...and steps that can be taken

I have this nasty habit of striking up a conversation with bankers, banking professionals inside the banks.

Starting from juniors, the freshers to the top- the Branch Head, maybe.

I do it just FOR AN INTELLECTUAL EXERCISE - to understand where our / global economy is heading.

It always follows the same pattern : first the freshers start....they try to "sell" me a scheme..this scheme - it's good for you..on the "long run"...I always LISTEN. I'm a good listener, one of the best.

After 5-10 minutes, I start contradicting them.....start pointing out the flaws.

It's then that the horrifying facts come up....
MAINLY I HAVE GATHERED THESE FACTS FROM THE TOPMOST BRANCH MANAGERS..etcetera...I will always keep their identity secret.

The horrifying facts of

• THE CRUDE OIL PRICES FORCING THE BANKS TO LEND FAR,FAR,FAR ABOVE THEIR CREDIT LIMIT TO THE OIL COMPANIES....
• HOW INTEREST PRICES CANNOT BE RAISED..."THE BANKS MIGHT FAIL...if we don't raise the interest prices !!!" - one top-notch Banking Official said. I understand. But who will convey the complex message to the masses ?
  
• THE SUB-PRIME LENDING THAT THE BANKS DO....IT'S DIFFICULT TO UNDERSTAND A PERSON/COMPANY'S PAYING-BACK CAPABILITY
• THE NPA's (%-wise)
  
• HOW INFLATED THE STOCK MARKETS ARE...I ask them and get strange answers - the SCHEME/FUND/STOCKS THEY THEMSELVES WERE TRYING TO SELL...they DON'T HAVE IT IN THEIR PORTFOLIO ! THEIR OWN PERSONAL INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO !!

And so on and on......

But I believe there are some ways out of the GLOBAL ECONOMIC MELTDOWN.....THE WORST IS YET TO COME...ALL SAY...there will be UPSWINGS....but THE WORST IS YET TO COME....

Obviously . all those high-paid MBA's have failed...they are brilliant students...but THEY COULDN'T THINK OUT OF THE BOX !!!

That's why we are having this ECONOMIC SHAKE-UP....

...it's just the TIP OF THE ICEBERG...believe me....

Disclaimer : I keep changing my auto-forwarding list so often....sometimes in a hurry forget revising the names...hope this doesn't reach the wrong person....hope you go through all my blogs 'n' enjoy the new look

On the World's Cheapest Car and some Global Economic Predictions...

Tata Motors, producing the world's cheapest "revolutionary car"...harbinger of a paradigm shift...will come through. The dubious nature of the agitators first thoroughly confused the entire Indian industrial thinktank. It has now angered the whole Global Economic thinktank. One should read the global news....
The supply chain management of the vendors on a downstream level, dependent on this car is threatened. On a local to international level. THIS IS BECAUSE ALL THE VENDORS WERE RELYING ON HIGH VOLUME SALES WITH MINIMAL MARGINS. Small investors/vendors, who had invested on Tata Motors heavily, some even with their life's savings, are now jeopardized !
My prediction is...ultimately, the world's cheapest car will smoothly sail through, though this company has suffered huge financial losses due to the mindless disrupters.

U.S. Economy will be on a downswing. We all saw legendary Investment Giants suffer, starting with the collapse of Lehmann Brothers. Losses suffered by Morgan Stanley, AIG, Goldman Sachs and others.

However, my prediction is the next U.S. president will be John McCain...due to the Vice-Prez choice Ms. Palin factor + his own track record as a legendary war hero + being not partial towards any lobby.

GOP (Republican Party) coming to power + falling U.S. Economy = GREATER OUTSOURCING OPPORTUNITIES for countries like India. U.S. MNC's HAVE TO OUTSOURCE to stay afloat. One might even see some Eastern States of India steal the limelight by bagging "huge orders" if they contact the correct people, who knows ? Probably on the ITES and KPO sector.

Japan has a "trick up its sleeve". It had the world's largest Gold and $/Euro Reserve. Since the 2 parameters have an inverse ration...I predict, this country will start economic recovery. Very clever strategy, not to speak of their strategic overseas real estate holdings.

Chinese economy will start a downswing...this is my prediction (though only 1% would agree with me)...due to it's being too much controlled by very few people.

Russian economy will do good since it has had strategic partnerships vis a vis OPEC countries + other deals.

European economy will flourish the most....this is purely due to the internal trading between the EU countries. And the wonderful unity that one sees between separate countries. Unbelievable. One has to study the Euro currency versus all other major currencies....some say the "Oracle of Omaha" W.Buffet has traded all his currencies to bank on the Euro !

On Globalization and Ratan Tata...a Most Misunderstood Man

First some Reality Check points :

• Globalization is Reality. It means greater challenges thrown to Emerging Markets.
• Tatas were the FIRST Global Indian Industrialists.
• Global Markets are intensively INTERLINKED. The FAILURE of Tata's pet projects would have devastating effects on the Global Economy.
• Failure of projects would mean a CASCADING EFFECT...the entire Supply Chain of vendors are affected. On a local, national to international level.

Let me quote Mr. Ratan Tata On risk:" Risk is a necessary part of business philosophy. You can be risk-averse and take no risks, in which case you will have a certain trajectory in terms of your growth. Or you can, while being prudent,take greater risk in order to grow faster."

What can I say ? He had a Dream : The World's cheapest Car...a Rupee 1 Lac Car ...US$ 2,200 ...A Car for the Common Man. A person riding a mobike can afford that Car. Through easy monthly installments, of course.

BUT HIS DREAM WAS MISUNDERSTOOD...
Dream to be transformed to Reality means implementation. But right now, we see
DISRUPTIVE activities WITH A CERTAIN OBJECTIVE standing in the way of his dream.

The Tatas have always also shown their philanthropic aspect also...

Global Economy has benefitted from his previous projects...be it the Steel Industry, I.T. Consultancy, Internet infrastructure, All his Projects were aimed at INFRASTRUCTURE building of a country.

The Wall Street Journal quotes today: "The escalating conflict is the starkest sign
yet of how rapid industrialisation is clashing with skepticism towards
modernisation and the reach of big business into rural India."

Rural Economy would have benefitted, with the Supply Chain and the cascading effect of ancilliary units.

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS ALARMED at such activities.

Disclaimer : I keep changing my auto-forwarding list...one can read all my blogs ..my lightning strike video on greenblueplanet and others

Cell Phone Fixation in India and Broadband scenario

We Indians seem to follow a "mass psychology" trend.....one example is the very low percentage of broadband users compared to the cell phone...which almost every kid 'round the block has...and educates me a thing or two about....

Found this article ..Quoting from Source : The Financial Express written by the Corporate Bureau :

"India may have emerged as the fastest growing telecom market in the world, however, in terms of Internet access and broadband numbers, the country has some major catching up to do. With almost close-to-zero broadband penetration, India is far behind most economies of the Asia-Pacific region. On the other hand, the region is the world's largest broadband market with a 39% share globally."

My take : The Asian Tigers, especially the Pacific Rim countries....show tremendous growth ! This will lead to further boost in their economy.

"While some Asia-Pacific economies are world leaders in information and communication technologies (ICT) where broadband access is ultra-high speedy, affordable and close to ubiquitous, in most of the region's poorer countries, Internet access is limited and low-speed according to ITU's Asia-Pacific Telecommunication and ICT Indicators report.

India and China make up for a quarter of the world's total mobile subscribers with over 600 and 280 million mobile cellular subscribers, respectively. However, India still has to debut in mobile broadband. Same is the case with China, which recently overtook the US with 253 million Internet users (according to China Internet Network Information Center)."

? : What's Ms. Rebecca MacKinnon's number - about the 253 million ? the "Great Firewall"...does it allow 253 mn? check out her blog in Rconversation...go find it...very interesting stuff in there

"The Asia Pacific region as a whole is home to almost half the world's fixed telephone subscribers. It has 42% of the world's Internet users, and with 1.4 billion mobile cellular subscribers, it also has the largest mobile phone market. In terms of ICTs, the report pegs Asia-Pacific as a region of superlatives with the region being the leader in broadband numbers too. However, there is a wide chasm between the economies of the region when it comes to Internet access especially in terms of speed.

In some of the rich economies of the region, one in four persons is a broadband subscriber while in most of the region's low and lower-middle income economies, high-speed Internet access is limited to urban areas at best, typically expensive, and often not available at all. India numbers too paint a sorry picture. The country has close to 50 million Internet users while its number of broadband users is abysmally low at 4.5 million"

? : 4.5 million......that is really pathetic. I guess people spend more on cellphone and accesories than on their broadband....I don't blame the broadband operators...

"Compare that with countries like Hong Kong (China) and Japan, and operators there have launched one-Gigabits per second (Gbps) broadband and triple-play services aimed at the residential market which include Internet telephony and television. These high-income economies are also leaders in terms of third generation (3G) mobile cellular deployment.

But, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. With the recent change in government policies on 3G and Internet telephony things have started looking up for the country. While 3G is expected to roll-out by next year, the decks have also been cleared for Internet telephony."

My take : As long as rural communites don't realize the advantages of the Net vis a vis trading, information exchange of rural economy related matters.....%age of broadband penetration may still be low...I think some people took entrepreneurial steps in that direction in rural India.

Innovative Technology

Was just trying out the Google Map Maker....

Seems like I.T. is heading for a PARADIGM SHIFT from Programming to :

Viewing the Global Information as a

NETWORKED, CREATIVE RDBMS (Relational Database Management System)

Techno Finance Gurus of India

It's a sad thing we forget our own people who contributed so much to the Growth of the current Indian Economy. But, good to so...their work lasts on the Net. Scouring the Net brings us lot of info about their pioneering work.

This was done on a Techno Financial Front.....by many :

• Dewang Mehta .....without whom I wouldn't have been able to write this blog, perhaps. He was the pioneer who was campaigning for BROADBAND HI-SPEED INTERNET as top priority for India. His slogan was ...India needs "Roti, kapda aur Broadband" ....nobody believed him when he started campaigning. Hats off to you...Late Mr. D. Mehta. He died early....what he could have given to this country had he been alive today.
• Sam Pitroda....he ushered in Modern day Telecommunications....Interesting to see those tech-savvy(?) teenagers to 40 year-olds, even...brandishing their myriad gadgets...unable to remember him. A lot of people opposed him....saying personal computers were bad for the Indian economy !
  
• Dr. Manmohan Singh....he was never a politician. India has forgotten that he saved Indian Economy from the brink of Total Bankruptcy. Now, many people have different opinions about him. But I'm sure History will write the right words about him 100 years from now.

All these people were not politicians... used by them..but were instrumental in powering India to what it is TODAY.

These visionaries were what I'd call :

Techno Financial Gurus of India

The Russian Threat...Ukraine factor....frightening

I am really surprised at how and why the West was caught napping.

I heard a TV news broadcaster in a reputed channel saying that Ukraine may be at threat. Now, that is very,very,very serious.

Georgia has a population of I guess....7-8 million and area-wise 27,000 square miles.
But Ukraine's population is 52 million ! Area 233,000 square miles !

Ukraine had a split mandate as far as I can recollect vis a vis its relation with Russia.

The Russian tanks stormed rapidly into Georgia, though how they crossed the Caucases I dunno...some passes maybe. But they should have been heavily guarded.

My hunch is it's a fight for Oil or Strategic Positioning. Or that Georgia wants to join NATO so Russians move into Southern Ossetia.

But what about Ukraine ?

• I heard the Black Sea Fleet is mobilized. That's a very large sub-unit of the Russian Navy. An amphibious assault from the South into Ukraine via the Black Sea Coast.
• Combined with the Russian cocktail of Tank + Armored Vehicle + Infantry attack (one should study the Cold War history & WW2 to see how effective it is, IMHO...numero uno) will be.....

DISASTROUS....to say the least.

BTW, I'm just a neutral blogger examining the possibilities.....
But, one interesting thing is : If one can keep one's mind totally neutral.....it's difficult, believe me, and inputs the various parameters....one could have seen this coming.

Though I don't think Ukraine is currently at risk.

PREDICTION COMING TRUE vis a vis Rise of Russia

Do see my posting on 3rd June, '08....and some others roundabout that time, I guess.

Russian forces have crossed into Georgia, Southern Ossetia. IMHO, Russians are the masters of the game when it comes to Ground Offensive combo of Tanks + Armored Vehicles + Infantry + Artillery ....and more.

Almost "Shock and Awe" or Blitzkrieg...call it whatever you may.

The capital of Southern Ossetia has fallen. Casualties 1500...officially.

The country of Georgia is under threat itself.

What is it for ? Oil, natural resources...one may never know. But as a layman, one can only guess.

Who's next ? Ukraine, Belarus, Latvia, Estonia. I don't think Ukraine, because it's quite formidable.

But this is SCARY....the Masters of Retreat and Attack, of Strategy & Tactics ...have applied their Logistics with respect to Ground Frontal Offensive and gobbled up a part of Georgia !

Is it ready ???? The European Missile Defense Shield....I mean.

OIL SCARCITY Cause...a Lesser Known Fact..and How to Make Money

We, as consumers of Oil, are worried about the end-prices of the gasoline/petrol.

But here's a lesser known chilling factor ..... LESSER & LESSER OIL RESERVES THAT CAN BE PROFITABLY UTILIZED ARE BEING DISCOVERED !

Check out the bar graph from hubbertpeak.com (Dr. Campbell's, I believe?) :

My take : We are on borrowed time vis a vis crude oil....it's all past discoveries. (gray shaded bars)

White shaded bars are future discoveries that have yet to be extracted.....we know the reservoirs there based on S.P., Resistivity, gamma and other geophysical logs. But, it's still to be run to production.

But, since it is only natural human psychology to only think in terms of 5 to 10 years, at the max., lot of specialists think it's over........

THE GLOBAL OIL CRISIS HAS JUST STARTED....yeah, it will be eased, just like crude oil's dropping $/barrel -wise ....but it's just a temporary respite 'cuz a few OPEC countries, led by the Saudis are revving up the oil production.

But within 5 years......DEMAND WILL FAR OUTREACH SUPPLY.

But, here's a silver lining behind every cloud :

Petro-stocks/funds, etc will be SWINGING WILDLY, one can make money buying & selling on a short-term basis.
IF THEY KNOW THE RESERVOIR POTENTIAL THE COMPANY HAS BOUGHT ;-)

Historic Blunder made with regard to a Deal

Currently, I've gotten into this habit of talking in riddles, so here goes :

No...I'm not opposing the deal itself. As it might be of strategic interest vis a vis India's N.E. 15,000 feet + A.P. border areas taking into account certain strategic placements of certain...
probably adding more 50 would have made a difference.

But what has ANGERED 95% of neutral Indians is the way in which it was achieved. And which has been revealed clearly by the media, for after all we are a democracy.
Which raises doubts as to does this foreign power wants us to totally remain within their control and hence a weak country? How much right do we really have to exercise our own free will in case there A.P. is threatened, not just the regular infiltrations that are occurring every day.

The same foreign policy mistake has been done by this foreign power vis a vis the following countries which it did not trust :

• Japan......a stronger Japan would have meant a bulwark against China & N. Korea.
• France, Germany & other European countries.....which would have served as a bulwark against an Eastern Socialist country that is now rapidly growing in power. There would have been no need of a Missile Defense Shield at all.
• A few of its southern neighbours.....now some real totalitarian regimes seem to be cropping up real fast.

" A bogeyman thought of a thousand times becomes the truth"...adapted from somebody else's quote.

Hope that doesn't become the case with this country now grappling with an Oil Crisis...

...or lack of intelligent foreign policy makers, shall I say.

OIL PRICE ESCALATION AMID CONFLICTS IN OIL RESERVE ZONES

Last posting, pointed out that 62% of Oil Reserves fall within SEVERE CONFLICT ZONES.

Now, juxtapose that with the "Hubbert Peak for World Oil" a theory propounded in the 1950s by Dr. M. King Hubbert is a Theory now widely accepted last few principles being :
1.Oil Production rises to a peak which can never be surpassed;
2. Once the peak has been passed, production declines until the resource is depleted.

I believe, we are extremely near the peak.

Of course, there WILL BE TEMPORARY SPURTS IN OIL PRODUCTION WITH DISCOVERY / PROFITABLE EXTRACTION OF OIL FROM RESERVES....

Note : Canada & other countries do have large oil reserves, but they are NOT PROFITABLY EXTRACTABLE.

Check out this graph from source : hubbertpeak.com




Note that negative figures mean NO OIL can be PROFITABLY EXTRACTED.
Positive figures = show number of years that oil can be PROFITABLY EXTRACTED.

Well, the graph, that's by Dr. Campbell, a geologist, shows an even grimer picture, doesn't it ?

I'd say, even 90% of the WORLD'S OIL RESERVES WHICH CAN BE PROFITABLY EXTRACTED FALLS WITHIN SEVERE CONFLICT ZONES.

Conflict zones where the majority of people are fluent with Avtomat Kalashnikova 47 & its variants , as also Katyushka ( Russian sense o' humour, I say) rockets...as say a Bengali is with fluently juggling deals with "real estate developers"....or a Marwari kid with day trading...or a young kibbutznik to infiltrate behind the opposite lines.

I say, this portends a SEVERE CRISIS !

....unless macro-managed, THE ESCALATIONS WILL RISE.

RESULTING IN STEEPER CRUDE OIL PRICES , "OIL SHOCK" and of course, the resultant CHAIN-REACTIONS >>> inflation, economy collapse for a few countries ( 10% at least).

This is because, when demand even for a temporary very short period exceeds supply, the market PANICS.

Message for all the auto e-mail receivers : BTW, I keep on changing / adding my auto
email postings as per my blogs, do it in a hurry. I got some 100+ on my list of all hues
and colors... including the White House, some senators to even quite a few socialists.
For example, my apologies if this reaches Feroz, and he gets annoyed for some reason...do e-mail me to let know which blogs auto-posting you would like to receive or not receive. For example, Feroz, you might want to receive getricheasily.blogspot.com but not this, do let me know. Cool, man, Take it easy....

OIL SCARCITY & GEOPOLITICAL CONSEQUENCES

I was scouring the Net for almost an hour to find an image like this....maybe I was searching in the wrong places, because it doesn't generally take this much time.

Source of this image : Oil and Gas Journal...found it on the Net.



Any way, a picture tells a thousand words, as they say.

A careful analysis of this pic tells a chilling story :

• In this globe of almost 200+ nations, the top 20 countries hold 95% of the world's oil.
• Corollary : If, even 10 of them form a strategic partnership, they can hold the whole world AT RANSOM. Very chilling, indeed.
• SEVERE CONFLICT ZONES hold 62 % of the world's oil !!! I did the maths...add up Saudi Arabia + Kuwait + Iraq + Iran + UAE + Qatar + Libya + Nigeria (do check the news, please) =799 billion barrels. THAT IS = (799/1292) x 100 = 62 %. (Maybe I dropped 1 or 2 billionbarrels somewhere, go find it...am not responsible for the consequences ;-)
• Corollary : 62% in 8 countries that are SEVERE CONFLICT ZONES where nobody is winning. This means from "mass psychology" - intensification of conflict. This will INCREASE OIL PRICES like anything.
• Europe holds almost no oil ! Though the European Union's GDP is now about 2 to even 3 times that of the richest nation, U.S.A. I project their moneypower + unity might helpthem, this based on some calculations I did which are still inside my head -)
• U.S. consumes 25% of the world's oil. But they hold just 2% of the world's oil. But I notice their population is increasing at a fast rate, thanks to rapid rate of immigrationand population growth. I think the country is headed for a big problem. Well quitefrankly, I don't have an answer for their problems. And even if I did, shouldn't I be paid $$million$$ for that ;-)
• The projected #2 and #3 greatest oil-consuming nations in the years to come, that is India and China have insufficient oil vis a vis their demands. Severe inflation will hit these 2. Though there may be temporary let ups.
  

But, in these uncertain times, only a handful of people who can gauge the WILD UPS AND DOWNS of the market will MAKE A HUGE AMOUNT OF MONEY. (no peace of mind for them,though).

This is fact, dunno if it's good or bad. I'm just a neutral analyst, BTW.