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Sunday, July 4, 2010

Severe Weather Predictions for Bengal for next 5 months

Based on certain parameters, most of which are attributable to Global Warming, one can predict severe Floods, post-Flood problems, Tidal Surges and Cyclones :

  1. This whole summer, as also the weather uptil now, has seen a SUSTAINED LONG TIME of higher than normal temperatures over the whole of Bay of Bengal. I am quite sure it is beyond the realm of weather satellites to cover this whole humongous water stretch. Now, what happens due to this whole mass of WARM water body ? It acts as an ENGINE . An ENGINE for CYCLONES to SUPERCYCLONES, as well as sudden FLOODS due to local INTENSE DEPRESSIONS.
  2. SEVERE FLOODS , caused due to many factors coming together, like heavy rainfall in upper catchment areas + elevated river bed due to silting + many other factors , which I will talk about later. These will flood extensive areas of sub-Gangetic West Bengal as also other states.
  3. TIDAL SURGES , like the bhora kotals to others, would add to the FLOODS AND/OR CYCLONIC RAINFALL EFFECT, to overcome the bundhs and embankments and cause FLOODING.
  4. SUPERCYCLONES, like AILA of the past year. Statistically speaking, it is highly probable that at least one of such INTENSITY would hit sub-Gangetic Bengal. There is also a medium to high probability that 2 such SUPERCYCLONES could hit sub-Gangetic Bengal. The MULTIPLE EFFECTS, of course, are left to one's imagination.
As in the past year, of course, such SEVERE WEATHER WARNING would be for next 4 to 5 months.

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