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Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Global Economic Meltdown...steps to rectify it



I had a talk with one of my friends, a top-notch banking official...who pointed out a very significant fact : the relative insularity of the Indian nationalized banks, and more importantly, the Indian economy. He was right in saying that "sudden mindless liberalization" has led in the past...to the collapse of some S.Asian economies. Indonesia is an example.

Yes, Indian markets are protected due to this factor..but there are other severe risks we run..like scarcity of oil production, rapid percentage of population growth (especially the younger generation that would be consuming at a higher rate)....but that is later. Ki Bolish re...boshe discuss korte hobe toder 3 jon'er saathe. Ar Gabon'er contact'tao dish to...(jader kache auto-forward korlam)

The Global Economic Meltdown is inevitable , unless these steps are taken :

  1. Alternative Energy Sources are found. A huge chunk of money has to go into the R & D of this.
  2. We all talk about individuals should learn to conserve oil...but in real life..ask yourself the question - how many do ? And can you check it ? So what must be done is a strict check should be put on the oil companies..their startegic mergers and demergers..so that the gasoline price comes down.
  3. Sub-prime lending to dubious companies is not stopped.
  4. Loan recovery has to be stringent.
  5. Loans are given to publicize a bank. Let this publicity be curtailed. A person in need of loan is tempted by the glitzy advertisements...nowadays every second person I know has taken a humongous amount of loan...
  6. A country's loan !!! How could the U.S. ignore stalwarts like Warren Buffet, Soros...their warnings..I wonder ?
  7. War Economy will continue..it is inevitable..as far my prediction goes..so one should follow Japan's genius Macro-Economic Strategy of Forex and Bullion Reserve.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Brilliant pieces of writing....

I'm referring to Mr. Sankarshan Thakur's article in a Calcutta-based newspaper "The Telegraph"...

where he talks of a new horrifying phenomenon in India , aptly named Mobocracy.

Arre..oi office'e kotodin jaoa hoi nai..

I met Mr. Thakur once..I was on the opposite side of the table. Just exchanged a few words with him. He was real, real busy...while most of the others in the Office were gossiping. Your covering of the Kargil War was the best. Though I think Ms. Barkha Dutt gave you run for your money, huh ? Drass, Batalik or which sector ..I've forgotten. Tiger Hill'ka strategic capture I remember..

LOC' ka theory wrong hai..ji. Apun ka aisa hi lagta hai.

telegraph'e dui jon Pothik..arre Dada mone acche..junior tumi'o to gurudev. gondogol hoye jai. Aro kara kara jeno aache ?

Identity crisis hoye jacche mairi...

Statesman'eo jaoa hoi nai..koto kal..arre I.T. 'ke thik bhabe kaaje lagate parle hoye jeto.

Asian Age'e ar TOI 'te jeno kara kara ?

Ganashakti ar Bangla kagoj 'guloi jete hobe mone hochche..Eto jhamela..life heaven kore dilo property dispute.

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Some facts that are pointers to the future....

Quoting Sheela Bhatt in New York City (source > rediff) :

"Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh will be meeting the Republican nominee for US presidency, Senator John McCain , on September 24 in New York. Significantly, Dr Singh will not be meeting the Democratic nominee for the President's post, Senator Barack Obama"

.........Acc to my calculations....next U.S. Prez would be John Mc Cain due to factors pointed out earlier....60% sure...

this is only further confirmation/ pointer.....

Disclaimer : I keep changing my auto-forwarding list so often....sometimes in a hurry forget revising the names...hope this doesn't reach the wrong person

Global Economic Meltdown ...how I saw it coming...and steps that can be taken



I have this nasty habit of striking up a conversation with bankers, banking professionals inside the banks.

Starting from juniors, the freshers to the top- the Branch Head, maybe.

I do it just FOR AN INTELLECTUAL EXERCISE - to understand where our / global economy is heading.

It always follows the same pattern : first the freshers start....they try to "sell" me a scheme..this scheme - it's good for you..on the "long run"...I always LISTEN. I'm a good listener, one of the best.

After 5-10 minutes, I start contradicting them.....start pointing out the flaws.

It's then that the horrifying facts come up....
MAINLY I HAVE GATHERED THESE FACTS FROM THE TOPMOST BRANCH MANAGERS..etcetera...I will always keep their identity secret.

The horrifying facts of
  • THE CRUDE OIL PRICES FORCING THE BANKS TO LEND FAR,FAR,FAR ABOVE THEIR CREDIT LIMIT TO THE OIL COMPANIES....
  • HOW INTEREST PRICES CANNOT BE RAISED..."THE BANKS MIGHT FAIL...if we don't raise the interest prices !!!" - one top-notch Banking Official said. I understand. But who will convey the complex message to the masses ?
  • THE SUB-PRIME LENDING THAT THE BANKS DO....IT'S DIFFICULT TO UNDERSTAND A PERSON/COMPANY'S PAYING-BACK CAPABILITY
  • THE NPA's (%-wise)
  • HOW INFLATED THE STOCK MARKETS ARE...I ask them and get strange answers - the SCHEME/FUND/STOCKS THEY THEMSELVES WERE TRYING TO SELL...they DON'T HAVE IT IN THEIR PORTFOLIO ! THEIR OWN PERSONAL INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO !!

And so on and on......


But I believe there are some ways out of the GLOBAL ECONOMIC MELTDOWN.....THE WORST IS YET TO COME...ALL SAY...there will be UPSWINGS....but THE WORST IS YET TO COME....

Obviously . all those high-paid MBA's have failed...they are brilliant students...but THEY COULDN'T THINK OUT OF THE BOX !!!

That's why we are having this ECONOMIC SHAKE-UP....

...it's just the TIP OF THE ICEBERG...believe me....

Disclaimer : I keep changing my auto-forwarding list so often....sometimes in a hurry forget revising the names...hope this doesn't reach the wrong person....hope you go through all my blogs 'n' enjoy the new look

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

On the World's Cheapest Car and some Global Economic Predictions...

Tata Motors, producing the world's cheapest "revolutionary car"...harbinger of a paradigm shift...will come through. The dubious nature of the agitators first thoroughly confused the entire Indian industrial thinktank. It has now angered the whole Global Economic thinktank. One should read the global news....
The supply chain management of the vendors on a downstream level, dependent on this car is threatened. On a local to international level. THIS IS BECAUSE ALL THE VENDORS WERE RELYING ON HIGH VOLUME SALES WITH MINIMAL MARGINS. Small investors/vendors, who had invested on Tata Motors heavily, some even with their life's savings, are now jeopardized !
My prediction is...ultimately, the world's cheapest car will smoothly sail through, though this company has suffered huge financial losses due to the mindless disrupters.

U.S. Economy will be on a downswing. We all saw legendary Investment Giants suffer, starting with the collapse of Lehmann Brothers. Losses suffered by Morgan Stanley, AIG, Goldman Sachs and others.

However, my prediction is the next U.S. president will be John McCain...due to the Vice-Prez choice Ms. Palin factor + his own track record as a legendary war hero + being not partial towards any lobby.

GOP (Republican Party) coming to power + falling U.S. Economy = GREATER OUTSOURCING OPPORTUNITIES for countries like India. U.S. MNC's HAVE TO OUTSOURCE to stay afloat. One might even see some Eastern States of India steal the limelight by bagging "huge orders" if they contact the correct people, who knows ? Probably on the ITES and KPO sector.

Japan has a "trick up its sleeve". It had the world's largest Gold and $/Euro Reserve. Since the 2 parameters have an inverse ration...I predict, this country will start economic recovery. Very clever strategy, not to speak of their strategic overseas real estate holdings.

Chinese economy will start a downswing...this is my prediction (though only 1% would agree with me)...due to it's being too much controlled by very few people.

Russian economy will do good since it has had strategic partnerships vis a vis OPEC countries + other deals.

European economy will flourish the most....this is purely due to the internal trading between the EU countries. And the wonderful unity that one sees between separate countries. Unbelievable. One has to study the Euro currency versus all other major currencies....some say the "Oracle of Omaha" W.Buffet has traded all his currencies to bank on the Euro
!

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

On Globalization and Ratan Tata...a Most Misunderstood Man

First some Reality Check points :

  • Globalization is Reality. It means greater challenges thrown to Emerging Markets.
  • Tatas were the FIRST Global Indian Industrialists.
  • Global Markets are intensively INTERLINKED. The FAILURE of Tata's pet projects would have devastating effects on the Global Economy.
  • Failure of projects would mean a CASCADING EFFECT...the entire Supply Chain of vendors are affected. On a local, national to international level.

Let me quote Mr. Ratan Tata On risk:" Risk is a necessary part of business philosophy. You can be risk-averse and take no risks, in which case you will have a certain trajectory in terms of your growth. Or you can, while being prudent,take greater risk in order to grow faster."

What can I say ? He had a Dream : The World's cheapest Car...a Rupee 1 Lac Car ...US$ 2,200 ...A Car for the Common Man. A person riding a mobike can afford that Car. Through easy monthly installments, of course.

BUT HIS DREAM WAS MISUNDERSTOOD...
Dream to be transformed to Reality means implementation. But right now, we see
DISRUPTIVE activities WITH A CERTAIN OBJECTIVE standing in the way of his dream.

The Tatas have always also shown their philanthropic aspect also...

Global Economy has benefitted from his previous projects...be it the Steel Industry, I.T. Consultancy, Internet infrastructure, All his Projects were aimed at INFRASTRUCTURE building of a country.

The Wall Street Journal quotes today: "The escalating conflict is the starkest sign
yet of how rapid industrialisation is clashing with skepticism towards
modernisation and the reach of big business into rural India."

Rural Economy would have benefitted, with the Supply Chain and the cascading effect of ancilliary units.

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS ALARMED at such activities.

Disclaimer : I keep changing my auto-forwarding list...one can read all my blogs ..my lightning strike video on greenblueplanet
and others

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Cell Phone Fixation in India and Broadband scenario

We Indians seem to follow a "mass psychology" trend.....one example is the very low percentage of broadband users compared to the cell phone...which almost every kid 'round the block has...and educates me a thing or two about....

Found this article ..Quoting from Source : The Financial Express written by the Corporate Bureau :

"
India may have emerged as the fastest growing telecom market in the world, however, in terms of Internet access and broadband numbers, the country has some major catching up to do. With almost close-to-zero broadband penetration, India is far behind most economies of the Asia-Pacific region. On the other hand, the region is the world's largest broadband market with a 39% share globally."

My take : The Asian Tigers, especially the Pacific Rim countries....show tremendous growth ! This will lead to further boost in their economy.

"While some Asia-Pacific economies are world leaders in information and communication technologies (ICT) where broadband access is ultra-high speedy, affordable and close to ubiquitous, in most of the region's poorer countries, Internet access is limited and low-speed according to ITU's Asia-Pacific Telecommunication and ICT Indicators report.

India and China make up for a quarter of the world's total mobile subscribers with over 600 and 280 million mobile cellular subscribers, respectively. However, India still has to debut in mobile broadband. Same is the case with China, which recently overtook the US with 253 million Internet users (according to China Internet Network Information Center)."

? : What's Ms. Rebecca MacKinnon's number - about the 253 million ? the "Great Firewall"...does it allow 253 mn? check out her blog in Rconversation...go find it...very interesting stuff in there

"The Asia Pacific region as a whole is home to almost half the world's fixed telephone subscribers. It has 42% of the world's Internet users, and with 1.4 billion mobile cellular subscribers, it also has the largest mobile phone market. In terms of ICTs, the report pegs Asia-Pacific as a region of superlatives with the region being the leader in broadband numbers too. However, there is a wide chasm between the economies of the region when it comes to Internet access especially in terms of speed.

In some of the rich economies of the region, one in four persons is a broadband subscriber while in most of the region's low and lower-middle income economies, high-speed Internet access is limited to urban areas at best, typically expensive, and often not available at all. India numbers too paint a sorry picture. The country has close to 50 million Internet users while its number of broadband users is abysmally low at 4.5 million"

? : 4.5 million......that is really pathetic. I guess people spend more on cellphone and accesories than on their broadband....I don't blame the broadband operators...

"Compare that with countries like Hong Kong (China) and Japan, and operators there have launched one-Gigabits per second (Gbps) broadband and triple-play services aimed at the residential market which include Internet telephony and television. These high-income economies are also leaders in terms of third generation (3G) mobile cellular deployment.

But, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. With the recent change in government policies on 3G and Internet telephony things have started looking up for the country. While 3G is expected to roll-out by next year, the decks have also been cleared for Internet telephony."

My take : As long as rural communites don't realize the advantages of the Net vis a vis trading, information exchange of rural economy related matters.....%age of broadband penetration may still be low...I think some people took entrepreneurial steps in that direction in rural India.

http://chitika.com/publishers.php?refid=debajyoti