Severe Weather Predictions for Bengal for next 5 months

Based on certain parameters, most of which are attributable to Global Warming, one can predict severe Floods, post-Flood problems, Tidal Surges and Cyclones :

1. This whole summer, as also the weather uptil now, has seen a SUSTAINED LONG TIME of higher than normal temperatures over the whole of Bay of Bengal. I am quite sure it is beyond the realm of weather satellites to cover this whole humongous water stretch. Now, what happens due to this whole mass of WARM water body ? It acts as an ENGINE . An ENGINE for CYCLONES to SUPERCYCLONES, as well as sudden FLOODS due to local INTENSE DEPRESSIONS.
   
2. SEVERE FLOODS , caused due to many factors coming together, like heavy rainfall in upper catchment areas + elevated river bed due to silting + many other factors , which I will talk about later. These will flood extensive areas of sub-Gangetic West Bengal as also other states.
3. TIDAL SURGES , like the bhora kotals to others, would add to the FLOODS AND/OR CYCLONIC RAINFALL EFFECT, to overcome the bundhs and embankments and cause FLOODING.
4. SUPERCYCLONES, like AILA of the past year. Statistically speaking, it is highly probable that at least one of such INTENSITY would hit sub-Gangetic Bengal. There is also a medium to high probability that 2 such SUPERCYCLONES could hit sub-Gangetic Bengal. The MULTIPLE EFFECTS, of course, are left to one's imagination.

As in the past year, of course, such SEVERE WEATHER WARNING would be for next 4 to 5 months.

Some conclusions I've reached

While looking at Global Events ( be it Geopolitics, Current Affairs, Psephology, Defense Analysis, Global Warming, Environmental Crises) most of us always predict the Future from 2 completely polarized, opposite angles:

1. Scientific / Tech Angle. This is , as in modern times, highly specialized. To be quite precise, super-specialized. Whole Governments/Countries depend on this method only.

2. Religion.

Now, could there be a Middle Way to take into account all Religions.....comprising the empirical knowledge/analyses that were after all developed through thousands of years

AND

a Generalized Scientific/Tech approach based on mathematical calculations that really do not require much more than a pocket calculator ?

If you are skeptical, let me give you some examples -

In Business, the richest people made money, say from the stock market and other speculative means, using not much sophisticated Maths. Of course, they spent hours making those calculations.

In Technology, such as I.T., the richest people made money following an uncanny trend to guess in which direction technology would go. Example - Bill Gates figuring out Windows being the future and grabbing the license for DOS from IBM, and then picking up the WIMPs template from Apple.

In War, the greatest generals did not pass out from Colleges. Examples - Napoleon, Stalin, Hitler, Mao, George Washington and so many others. And none of them were specialized and had formal war training. It was the Strategy that mattered.

Environmental Issues...Al Gore made startling revelations that surpassed many specialized scientists.