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Saturday, May 2, 2009

Sectors that should beat a real heavy Recession

Let me first begin by making an off-tangential remark. Market visionaries or techno-financial gurus from whom I have learnt certain things basically share certain traits - they're invariably introverted, shy and hesitant to share their wisdom acquired. Examples, cutting across countries and all barriers are - Warren Buffet (currently the world's richest), George Soros, B. Franklin, Dr. Manmohan Singh, Rakesh Jhunjunwala,Arun Jaitley, Dr. Amartya Sen. Another thing to note is that quite a few of these people sometimes chose not to make a lot of money, examples being Dr. M.Singh, B. Franklin (whom Warren Buffet follows) amongst others.

Now, here's a real fast analysis of sectors that should beat a real heavy recession. (Note that I am assuming a real heavy one). The rationale behind is also synopsised :

1. Healthcare and Medical. Reason is a long-drawn Recession would invariably make quite a large segment of the population sick from the prolonged stress and intra and inter-contry strifes.

2. Petroleum. Though there are recent downturns..it stands that the Global Petroleum reservoirs' supply/demand would encourage companies to maximise profit. This is an unfortunate truth.

3. Agro-based. Since this is a new sector, and a reduced venture capital influx to Industries, in general would encourage shift of capital to this sector.

4. Fertilisers. Since this is dependent on Agriculture.

5. Pharmaceuticals. Since this is dependent on Med.

6. Bullion-based. As well as certain Metals. Reason being people investing in them as a hedge against inflation.

7. Certain Finance sectors. This is because people will tend to park their money back into safer instruments. But I guess one should exercise caution as quite a few might fail. So, in this particular Sector, I guess one should be highly cautious of stocks.

Sectors that should not lose out are - Core Engineering, Petrochem, certain segments of Infrastructure, etc..
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