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Saturday, August 22, 2009

My Hurricane Bill Predictions - Part 6

As of 8 pm EDT, Hurricane Bill has weakened to a Category 1. Current max. sustained wind speed 85 mph. Expected to pass offshore of New England.

A Category 1 Hurricane has the following damaging potential - "Some damage to building structures could occur, primarily to unanchored mobile homes (mainly pre-1994 construction). Some damage is likely to poorly constructed signs. Loose outdoor items will become projectiles, causing additional damage."

Internal assessment of Hurricane Bill (National Hurricane Center) reveals -

"BILL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT WITH COLD WATERS AHEAD...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. BILL SHOULD BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AFTER THE CENTER PASSES NEAR OR OVER NEWFOUNDLAND.
......
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS."

So, my take is Hurricane Bill would be primarily WEAKENED DUE TO COLDER WATERS that it is touching.

But one has to keep in mind the damaging potential of a Category 1 Hurricane when it strikes the NEW ENGLAND AREA.

I should feel safe within a very consolidated structure at an altitude that would be beyond reach of the combined rip tide + storm surge effect.

Friday, August 21, 2009

Hurricane Bill Predictions - part 5


It seems Hurricane Bill poses much lesser risk now. Mainly because it will
TRAVERSE THE OPEN SEAS, far away from landmass. Though it will generate big
swells, rip tides and heavy rain.

But I'd like to point that many parameters makes anybody amongst us very
difficult to predict a Hurricane's exact trajectory and magnitude. But one
amongst these many parameters is the behaviour of the "lesser creatures".

Which way is are the Turtles and other Marine Animals headed ? It has been
shown time and time again that the lesser creatures have a sixth sense.

I studied this phenomenon in past 2 occassions - during Hurricane Katrina's hit
(which I could predict was going to be disastrous) and the Boxer's Day
Tsunami of 2004.

Countless examples of the animals escaping the tsunamis of south of

Banda Aceh, Sri Lanka & Tamil Nadu during the tsunami.

Check out the following article snippet:


"As Hurricane Bill spun north-northwest at about 20 mph Friday with maximum
sustained winds of 105 mph, Bree Varda, a loggerhead sea turtle, paddled due
south at a maximum sustained speed fast enough to put her in third place in a
10-turtle marathon"

"Bree Varda seems to be getting out of Dodge. She swam well west of Hurricane
Bill on Thursday, the last time she surfaced long enough for trackers to get
a satellite signal. She had covered about 314 miles in 19 days and was
heading south toward Grand Bahama. She trailed in the race behind two
leatherback turtles, a much larger species."

My take :

The turtles would instinctively go to the calmest water. So, their trajectory
might be perpendicular to the path of maximum damage of the Hurricane.

Though, being a wildlife enthusiast, I am against radio-collaring an animal
if it comes to any harm.

My Hurricane Bill Forecasting - part 4



Hurricane Bill strengthened upto Category 4 as correctly predicted by me. Do see last 4 postings.


Now, here are 2 things, according to my analysis, that are going to save hundreds of lives :


1. Trajectory Change. This may make a dramatic effect in weakening Hurricane Bill from Category 4 to Category 1, saving hundreds of lives.

2. Distance from landmass. Notice that the projected path with its area of influence will be outside Bermuda. Thus the effect on Bermuda may be that of a Tropical Storm or Category 1. Given the huge expanse of the
Atlantic.


Do see the following pic:

But, there is still a chance that it might wobble if there are UNEVEN ISOBARIC PATCHES.

Also, one has to remember that this is a Hurricane that is see-sawing between Category 3 and Category 4.


So, going by the adage -"Better safe and sorry" one has to watch for stretches of unusually warm water that might fall if the Hurricane deviates from the projected trajectory.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

My Hurricane Bill Forecasting - part 3

My forecasting is PROVING CORRECT (Do see my earlier 3 postings), as Hurricane Bill, feeding on the warm waters,is now strengthening from Category 3 to Category 4.

If isobaric data were available, I could have given a real good forecasting as to which way Hurricane Bill would be moving. You see, if the Hurricane, changes course towards a warmer, moister stretch of water, it has the possibility of gaining strength to a Category 4.

Though I hope, it veers away from any landmass.

Check out source from Associated Press:

MIAMI (AP) _ Bermuda issued a tropical storm warning Thursday as Hurricane Bill regained some of its muscle, while dangerous waves and riptides were likely along most of the eastern U.S. coast over the weekend.
The Category 3 storm's top winds increased to 125 mph (201 kph), and forecasters warned it could return to Category 4 strength by Friday as it feeds on warm Atlantic waters. The stronger designation comes from winds that exceed 130 mph (209 kph).
"It's moving over waters of 84, 85 degrees Fahrenheit (about 29 Celsius), which could provide some fuel to it. We still think it could restrengthen back into a Category 4. The environmental conditions appear to be right," said Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center."

Meanwhile, here in India also, the Cyclone Season is coming up. This coupled with inundated flood waters due to rainfall in the upper catchment areas, can be disastrous.

After carefully studying NOAA websites, and even BBC, CNN 's reporting I am amazed at the way the developed countries go by the motto - "Better safe than sorry" and has developed levels of advisories.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

My Hurricane Bill Forecasting is Correct

I predicted yesterday that given the huge stretch of unusually warm water Hurricane Bill will be Category 3 or even higher.

See the reasons please.

My forecasting has come correct as revealed in the following . Source: bloomberg.com:

"By Brian K. Sullivan

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Bill, already deemed a major storm, intensified over the Atlantic today and is forecast to plow toward Canada after passing between
Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.

Bill packed maximum sustained winds of 135 miles (217 kilometers) per hour, up from 125 mph earlier today, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at about 11 a.m. Miami time. That makes Bill a Category 4 hurricane on the five- step Saffir-Simpson scale of intensity, where a Category 3 storm, with winds of at least 111 mph, is considered major.

A weather front moving east across the U.S. will probably keep Bill away from the country’s eastern seaboard, said Jim Rouiller, a senior energy meteorologist at Planalytics Inc. in Wayne, Pennsylvania.

“This is a very dangerous Category 4,” Rouiller said by telephone. “The East Coast is lucky.”


It's good news that no major coase is threatened till now. But, it seems it is veering off towards the Canadian Coast.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Predictive Strength of Hurricane Bill

Well, the Hurricane season for the American Continent
started late, but check out the following :


source: noaa.gov
"The planet’s ocean surface temperature was the warmest on record for July, breaking the previous high mark established in 1998 according to an analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. The combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for July 2009 ranked fifth-warmest since world-wide records began in 1880."

Also, check out this source from Wall Street Journal :

"Citing warm ocean water and light wind shear, Dennis Feltgen, a National Hurricane Center spokesman, said Bill was "in a very good environment to continue to strengthen.""

My take:

This means that even if a future Hurricane passes through the warmer waters, it will have the source that would provide the core engine to BOOST UP THE STRENGTH of a hurricane.

Meanwhile, looking at the Atlantic map, it seems that tropical storm Claudette (weakened) near the Florida panhandle is in a different path from Hurricane Bill, and will have no effect with respect to Bill.

Now, check out Tropical Storm Ana, which has made landfall over Puerto Rico. Hence, it has weakened.

But if you have a Low-High-Low alternate isobaric regional patches, (which I don't have currently) that means, there is a medium probability that Hurricane Bill will move over the vast warm water stretches, and gather strength.

My prediction is it'll definitely be Category 3, or even more, but the direction it'll take is the most important.


Monday, August 17, 2009

One should not ARTIFICALLY BOOST markets


It just doesn't work in the long run. That's what I learnt from the GURUS of Market Economy - be it Warren Buffet , Alan Greenspan, George Soros or Benjamin Franklin.

As a matter of fact, artificial boosting of the market by injecting funds/capital inflows might HURT THE MARKET IN THE LONG RUN. Because, after all, you're borrowing it from somewhere.

So, as the following report goes, one needs to be cautious till about 2010 - middle, GLOBALLY.


Read this stuff. from Associated Press

"

NEW YORK – Investors are finding out what everybody else already knew: The consumer isn't going to spend the economy into recovery.

Major U.S. stocks indexes tumbled by the biggest amount in six weeks Monday as investors grew worried that they have been too quick to bet on an economic rebound during the market's five-month rally. Overseas markets plunged and investors' demand for safe-haven investments sent the dollar and Treasury prices shooting higher.

The Dow Jones industrial average skidded 186 points and the major indexes fell at least 2 percent. The Nasdaq composite index was hardest hit, falling 2.8 percent, but it also had the biggest advance as Wall Street rallied this year.

A shudder in China's main stock market touched off a wave of selling that spread to Europe and then the U.S. A drop in quarterly profits at home improvement retailer Lowe's Cos. added to worries that an improvement in the economy is far off.

Joe Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading LLC, said the selling was warranted.

"The economics obviously don't support where we've been," he said.

The slide on Wall Street was steep but felt more controlled than the plunges of the past year because stocks ended just off of their worst levels and because analysts have been calling for a retreat after the Dow and Standard & Poor's 500 index raced up 15 percent in only five weeks.

The Shanghai stock market tumbled 5.8 percent Monday as investors worried that stocks had risen too quickly and that the Chinese government would tighten bank lending policies. Investors outside China have been hoping that strengthening there would spill over to other economies.

Worries grew when Lowe's said consumers are putting off big purchases. That's troubling because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.

Some investors used to seeing a quick bounce-back in stocks have underestimated how difficult the recovery could be, even though many analysts have warned that it could take well into 2010 for the economy to regain strength. And some traders seem to be in the same mind-set as three years ago, willing to take big chances even when there was little economic or corporate evidence to justify a huge advance.

Now, with consumers facing high unemployment, weak home prices and mounds of debt, investors are worrying that they had grown too optimistic even though the stock market tends to improve before the economy after a recession."


Meanwhile, I've decided to totally cutoff Election Outcome Predictions and concentrate on the following AREAS for Predictive Analyses. I'd feel real good with a small 2-3 team of statisticians/sociologists/economists :



  • Disaster Early Warning System ( I'll tell you about how I knew it was a Tsunami on Dec 26, 2004 within 30 minutes. And how I could figure out Hurricane Katrina was going to be a Major Disaster. I'm following the latest Hurricane Bill, BTW - given the fact it has a lot of water to cover from which it can suck in its "life blood" though I don't have access to data like surface water temperature (averaged) plus macro atmospheric dynamics. or say forecasting how dangerous a "bhora kotal" adding on a cyclone can be. )
  • Disaster Management (say, how to rectify the "bunds" in the Sunderbans or the dykes in the Netherlands)
  • Global Warming After-Effects (say glacier retreat and effects on the ecology/human aspect)
  • H1N1, H5N1 and other Pandemic Predictions with respect to Magnitude. (For example, what are the risk factors for escalation of a pandemic)
  • Alternative Medicines. For example, for the above Pandemics.
  • I.T. and other technology trend analysis.
  • Macro-Economic Projections.
And some other non-controversial stuff. But one has to do these things in a relaxed manner.


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