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Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Predictive Strength of Hurricane Bill

Well, the Hurricane season for the American Continent
started late, but check out the following :


source: noaa.gov
"The planet’s ocean surface temperature was the warmest on record for July, breaking the previous high mark established in 1998 according to an analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. The combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for July 2009 ranked fifth-warmest since world-wide records began in 1880."

Also, check out this source from Wall Street Journal :

"Citing warm ocean water and light wind shear, Dennis Feltgen, a National Hurricane Center spokesman, said Bill was "in a very good environment to continue to strengthen.""

My take:

This means that even if a future Hurricane passes through the warmer waters, it will have the source that would provide the core engine to BOOST UP THE STRENGTH of a hurricane.

Meanwhile, looking at the Atlantic map, it seems that tropical storm Claudette (weakened) near the Florida panhandle is in a different path from Hurricane Bill, and will have no effect with respect to Bill.

Now, check out Tropical Storm Ana, which has made landfall over Puerto Rico. Hence, it has weakened.

But if you have a Low-High-Low alternate isobaric regional patches, (which I don't have currently) that means, there is a medium probability that Hurricane Bill will move over the vast warm water stretches, and gather strength.

My prediction is it'll definitely be Category 3, or even more, but the direction it'll take is the most important.


1 comment:

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