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Thursday, October 1, 2009
When a country / set of countries does well economically for a sustained period, the centre-right parties do well.
When that country , due to some reason, is doing bad on an economic front, the people would vote centre-left.
This is because, rising unemployment and other issues would lead the people to make a change towards a system that would provide them witha "safety bracket".
So, take a look at the German and EU Elections.
Because Europe is relatively doing good compared to other countries,
in Germany the centre-right CDU/CSU party led by Merkel won.
Same happened in the case of the European Union. The elections were won by the right of centre European People's Party (EPP).
In case of the U.S., drastic economic downturn caused the Democrats to overturn the Republicans. People were looking for "safety brackets" with respect to jobs.
India is the most complicated , and here, IMHO, the rural economy not deteriorating caused the centrist Congress party to win.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Anyway.....Yet another factor why there is more flooding - due to lesser replenishment of sediments, the Deltas are sinking.
The various Dams that have been built across the Ganges and its tributaries come into mind. Ganges - well, the Tehri Dam. As to its tributaries, so many...starting from the Yamuna, Kosi and even the Tista.
Looking at a News Source : BBC . Reporting by R. Black
"Damming and diverting rivers means that much less sediment now reaches many delta areas, while extraction of gas and groundwater also lowers the land.
Rivers affected include the Colorado, Nile, Pearl, Rhone and Yangtze.
About half a billion people live in these regions, the researchers note in the journal Nature Geoscience.
They calculate that 85% of major deltas have seen severe flooding in recent years, and that the area of land vulnerable to flooding will increase by about 50% in the next 40 years as land sinks and climate change causes sea levels to rise"
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
So often we forget that after all Japan still is the world's 2nd largest economy.
With strategically placed very healthy amount of Forex, Bullion, Reserves.
Friday, September 11, 2009
Take a look at a longitudinal vortex appearing really harmless at about 10 degrees north and 90 degrees east. South of Andaman Nicobar.
I would say it is rather harmless.
But such complex is Nature to predict.
Given a warm stretch of water in the Bay of Bengal where it can derive its energy + the already vortex formation (which is in another Sat Image of Kalpana-1 showing wind directions) + no barriers of opposing low prssure troughs....who knows, even this harmless vortex might bring in considerable rain.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
At least one thing is CERTAIN - that increasingly Planet Earth is moving towards a more chaotic future courtesy the following -
- Over Population. Type in Human Biomass and you'll come up with some amazing facts and figures.
- Global Warming
- Effects of Global Warming - Hurricanes, Severe Drought, Sudden Floods, Desertification, Drop in Water Table level, Transgression of Seas,
- Global Conflict
- Reduction in Biodiversity
- Pandemics like H1N1, H5N1
So, here I quote from a certain Dr. Deb Brown -
"My 96-year-old grandmother is a vibrant, sharp-minded woman who spent most of her life gardening in her large backyard in Massachusetts, and her significant contributions to the American Hosta Society have earned her over 2,500 results if you Google her name.
Many spiritual Teachings tell us that we can learn all we need to know just from observing nature. So I asked my grandmother several years ago what she learned from a lifetime of gardening. She thoughtfully considered the question for a moment and then responded with a twinkle in her eye, “Life will find a way. The crocus will come up through the snow. The grass will grow between the cracks in the sidewalk. The plant that you think is dying will suddenly thrive. Life will find a way.”
I’ve thought of her words many times over the years, particularly when times are so dark that I can’t turn on the T.V. or the radio without hearing about death, conflict, and destruction. I breathe, and I remind myself that life will find a way."
And folks, incidentally, from now on, my Original Analysis / Original Writing / My Take will be appearing in Blue.
And I'm thinking of putting all my Blogs into this one only. Save 2 or 3 specialized ones.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Do Note my Flood Advisory made on September 5. And do read in details the observations made. Of course, sliding the Kalpana 1 Satellite Dynamic pics Timer from the default 95 to 1000 milliseconds I noticed the DRAMATIC VORTEX FORMATION.
I rely heavily on the Indian Meteorological Department's website for the case of India. The Site's real good.
Do check out the following news :
Villagers were caught unawares after the DVC released water from the Maithon and Panchet dams, following heavy rainfall in Jharkhand and parts of Bihar.
The rising water levels are causing floods in different areas of Burdwan, Bankura, Hooghly, Howrah and East and West Medinipur Districts.
Consequently, over 200,000 people have been rendered homeless in about 150 villages.
“Water rose suddenly yesterday at around 9 in the night. Our homes have been inundated. We are forced to spend the day on the river dam, which is higher” said Runa Doloi, a resident of Singpur village.
Among the worst affected villages are Singhpur, Ramchak, Chawli, Mansukha, Khansbar, Ranichak, Ramchandrapur which have been submerged by the floods.
Over the past forty-eight hours 100 thousand cusecs"
Good reporting was also done in a local News Channel named Channel 10. I found they gave very up-to-date prompt reports.
IT'S A CHAIN-REACTION.
- Low pressure increases storm surge.
- Add the tidal surge.
- The strong vortex was going to suck up a lot of water and there was going to be heavy rainfall in Gangetic West Bengal.
- The sub-cyclonic formation was of enough width to carry it forward and deposit rain in the upper catchment areas.
- The reservoirs have to release water.
- The water raises the water-level at the lower Ganga Plains tributaries flowing into Hooghly, as well as those draining thru' the Sunderbans.
- The water due to moderate rain in Burdwan, Bankura, Hooghly, Howrah and probably even Midnapur and 24 Parganas next cannot go out due to the risen up water level.
Monday, September 7, 2009
Above are snapshots of 2 softwares from the same company.
One, as you can see is buying and selling of stocks. Other is Gold.
As is evident, it's far easier buying/selling/place alert/put hold on Gold and Silver Buying.
Also, I heard, a few people have made a fortune from selling off their Gold held in Certificates.
But, yet we hesitate in Bullion and go for Stocks.
Is this another example of the "mass psychology" effect ?
The trading is probably governed by a long-standing tradition, as well as our ego.
Saturday, September 5, 2009
I found this vortex growing steadily from 01:00 IST 4 September 2009.
Courtesy the Kalpana Satellite Pics.
Well, go to the Indian Meteorological Department Site:
Here you have the dynamic satellite pics from the Kalpana-1
Satellite , Asia Mercator Projection. It's an ANIMATION. With sliced Sat Pics.
Make the Pause at 1000 Milliseconds. (the default is set at 95). Fill in 1000 to observe the Vortex Formation clearly.
Now observe closely.
You'll SEE the vortex formation.
It has the potential of a moderately heavy cyclone.
Now add the constant drizzling rain in the upper catchment area adding to the Hoogly and distributaries' water volume.
Also add 4 more Factors:
1. The Full Moon Tide Effect. 4 September was Full Moon.
2. Storm Surge Effect due to low pressure.
3. The Funnel shaped Bay of Bengal, resulting in the combined Full Moon Tide Effect & Lo-Pressure Surge Effect. Obviously experts must have made measurements with
Reynold's Number and what not in the different sub-channels.
4. The embankments that may be in bad shape.
One has to keep watch on potentially devastating floods
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Source - Times of India Group:
"NEW DELHI: Telecom major Tata Indicom on Tuesday launched a 'pay per call' plan for its pre-paid subscribers, in which subscribers will have to
pay fixed charge on a per-call basis both for local and STD usage, regardless of the call duration.
"Our pre-paid subscribers will pay a fixed charge of Re 1 per local call and Rs 3 for STD calls for unlimited duration, said MD of Tata Teleservices Anil Sardana while launching the new tariff system. Tata Indicom operates CDMA-based mobile services in the country and has a customer base of 40 million subscribers.
The new tariff system, which will intensify the rate war, is valid on all calls made by Tata Indicom subscribers to "any mobile phone or landline connection on any network", said a statement issued by Tata. The new offer has also cut SMS charges to 50 paise per SMS for both local and national messages. "
My take -
This scheme will immediately draw a huge subscriber base towards the Tata Group.
My analysis is that younger people talk for hours on the phone, especially teenagers, young adults and women. So, now, with India having a HUGE YOUNG POPULATION, this is a very smart move. A huge chunk of the population will want to pay just Re. 1 for , say, 20 minutes of call.
A Gallup poll/statistical analysis will definitely reveal the actual figures for the URBAN areas.
Very smart business move.
Of course, I think, the other telecom giants also will see the wisdom and start similar schemes.
Saturday, August 22, 2009
A Category 1 Hurricane has the following damaging potential - "Some damage to building structures could occur, primarily to unanchored mobile homes (mainly pre-1994 construction). Some damage is likely to poorly constructed signs. Loose outdoor items will become projectiles, causing additional damage."
Internal assessment of Hurricane Bill (National Hurricane Center) reveals -
"BILL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT WITH COLD WATERS AHEAD...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. BILL SHOULD BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AFTER THE CENTER PASSES NEAR OR OVER NEWFOUNDLAND.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS."
So, my take is Hurricane Bill would be primarily WEAKENED DUE TO COLDER WATERS that it is touching.
But one has to keep in mind the damaging potential of a Category 1 Hurricane when it strikes the NEW ENGLAND AREA.
I should feel safe within a very consolidated structure at an altitude that would be beyond reach of the combined rip tide + storm surge effect.
Friday, August 21, 2009
It seems Hurricane Bill poses much lesser risk now. Mainly because it will
TRAVERSE THE OPEN SEAS, far away from landmass. Though it will generate big
swells, rip tides and heavy rain.
But I'd like to point that many parameters makes anybody amongst us very
difficult to predict a Hurricane's exact trajectory and magnitude. But one
amongst these many parameters is the behaviour of the "lesser creatures".
Which way is are the Turtles and other Marine Animals headed ? It has been
shown time and time again that the lesser creatures have a sixth sense.
I studied this phenomenon in past 2 occassions - during Hurricane Katrina's hit
(which I could predict was going to be disastrous) and the Boxer's Day
Tsunami of 2004.
Countless examples of the animals escaping the tsunamis of south of
Banda Aceh, Sri Lanka & Tamil Nadu during the tsunami.
Check out the following article snippet:
"As Hurricane Bill spun north-northwest at about 20 mph Friday with maximum
sustained winds of 105 mph, Bree Varda, a loggerhead sea turtle, paddled due
south at a maximum sustained speed fast enough to put her in third place in a
"Bree Varda seems to be getting out of Dodge. She swam well west of Hurricane
Bill on Thursday, the last time she surfaced long enough for trackers to get
a satellite signal. She had covered about 314 miles in 19 days and was
heading south toward Grand Bahama. She trailed in the race behind two
leatherback turtles, a much larger species."
My take :
The turtles would instinctively go to the calmest water. So, their trajectory
might be perpendicular to the path of maximum damage of the Hurricane.
Though, being a wildlife enthusiast, I am against radio-collaring an animal
if it comes to any harm.
Now, here are 2 things, according to my analysis, that are going to save hundreds of lives :
1. Trajectory Change. This may make a dramatic effect in weakening Hurricane Bill from Category 4 to Category 1, saving hundreds of lives.
Do see the following pic:
But, there is still a chance that it might wobble if there are UNEVEN ISOBARIC PATCHES.
Also, one has to remember that this is a Hurricane that is see-sawing between Category 3 and Category 4.
So, going by the adage -"Better safe and sorry" one has to watch for stretches of unusually warm water that might fall if the Hurricane deviates from the projected trajectory.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
If isobaric data were available, I could have given a real good forecasting as to which way Hurricane Bill would be moving. You see, if the Hurricane, changes course towards a warmer, moister stretch of water, it has the possibility of gaining strength to a Category 4.
Though I hope, it veers away from any landmass.
Check out source from Associated Press:
MIAMI (AP) _ Bermuda issued a tropical storm warning Thursday as Hurricane Bill regained some of its muscle, while dangerous waves and riptides were likely along most of the eastern U.S. coast over the weekend.
The Category 3 storm's top winds increased to 125 mph (201 kph), and forecasters warned it could return to Category 4 strength by Friday as it feeds on warm Atlantic waters. The stronger designation comes from winds that exceed 130 mph (209 kph).
"It's moving over waters of 84, 85 degrees Fahrenheit (about 29 Celsius), which could provide some fuel to it. We still think it could restrengthen back into a Category 4. The environmental conditions appear to be right," said Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center."
Meanwhile, here in India also, the Cyclone Season is coming up. This coupled with inundated flood waters due to rainfall in the upper catchment areas, can be disastrous.
After carefully studying NOAA websites, and even BBC, CNN 's reporting I am amazed at the way the developed countries go by the motto - "Better safe than sorry" and has developed levels of advisories.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
See the reasons please.
My forecasting has come correct as revealed in the following . Source: bloomberg.com:
"By Brian K. Sullivan
Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Bill, already deemed a major storm, intensified over the Atlantic today and is forecast to plow toward Canada after passing between
Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.
Bill packed maximum sustained winds of 135 miles (217 kilometers) per hour, up from 125 mph earlier today, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at about 11 a.m. Miami time. That makes Bill a Category 4 hurricane on the five- step Saffir-Simpson scale of intensity, where a Category 3 storm, with winds of at least 111 mph, is considered major.
A weather front moving east across the U.S. will probably keep Bill away from the country’s eastern seaboard, said Jim Rouiller, a senior energy meteorologist at Planalytics Inc. in Wayne, Pennsylvania.
“This is a very dangerous Category 4,” Rouiller said by telephone. “The East Coast is lucky.”
It's good news that no major coase is threatened till now. But, it seems it is veering off towards the Canadian Coast.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
started late, but check out the following :
"The planet’s ocean surface temperature was the warmest on record for July, breaking the previous high mark established in 1998 according to an analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. The combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for July 2009 ranked fifth-warmest since world-wide records began in 1880."
Also, check out this source from Wall Street Journal :
"Citing warm ocean water and light wind shear, Dennis Feltgen, a National Hurricane Center spokesman, said Bill was "in a very good environment to continue to strengthen.""
This means that even if a future Hurricane passes through the warmer waters, it will have the source that would provide the core engine to BOOST UP THE STRENGTH of a hurricane.
Meanwhile, looking at the Atlantic map, it seems that tropical storm Claudette (weakened) near the Florida panhandle is in a different path from Hurricane Bill, and will have no effect with respect to Bill.
Now, check out Tropical Storm Ana, which has made landfall over Puerto Rico. Hence, it has weakened.
But if you have a Low-High-Low alternate isobaric regional patches, (which I don't have currently) that means, there is a medium probability that Hurricane Bill will move over the vast warm water stretches, and gather strength.
My prediction is it'll definitely be Category 3, or even more, but the direction it'll take is the most important.
Monday, August 17, 2009
It just doesn't work in the long run. That's what I learnt from the GURUS of Market Economy - be it Warren Buffet , Alan Greenspan, George Soros or Benjamin Franklin.
As a matter of fact, artificial boosting of the market by injecting funds/capital inflows might HURT THE MARKET IN THE LONG RUN. Because, after all, you're borrowing it from somewhere.
So, as the following report goes, one needs to be cautious till about 2010 - middle, GLOBALLY.
Read this stuff. from Associated Press
NEW YORK – Investors are finding out what everybody else already knew: The consumer isn't going to spend the economy into recovery.
Major U.S. stocks indexes tumbled by the biggest amount in six weeks Monday as investors grew worried that they have been too quick to bet on an economic rebound during the market's five-month rally. Overseas markets plunged and investors' demand for safe-haven investments sent the dollar and Treasury prices shooting higher.
The Dow Jones industrial average skidded 186 points and the major indexes fell at least 2 percent. The Nasdaq composite index was hardest hit, falling 2.8 percent, but it also had the biggest advance as rallied this year.
A shudder in China's main stock market touched off a wave of selling that spread to Europe and then the U.S. A drop in quarterly profits at home improvement retailer. added to worries that an improvement in the economy is far off.
Joe Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading LLC, said the selling was warranted.
"The economics obviously don't support where we've been," he said.
The slide on Wall Street was steep but felt more controlled than the plunges of the past year because stocks ended just off of their worst levels and because analysts have been calling for a retreat after the Dow and Standard & Poor's 500 index raced up 15 percent in only five weeks.
The Shanghai stock market tumbled 5.8 percent Monday as investors worried that stocks had risen too quickly and that the Chinese government would tighten bank lending policies. Investors outside China have been hoping that strengthening there would spill over to other economies.
Worries grew when Lowe's said consumers are putting off big purchases. That's troubling because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
Some investors used to seeing a quick bounce-back in stocks have underestimated how difficult the recovery could be, even though many analysts have warned that it could take well into 2010 for the economy to regain strength. And some traders seem to be in the same mind-set as three years ago, willing to take big chances even when there was little economic or corporate evidence to justify a huge advance.
Now, with consumers facing high unemployment, weak home prices and mounds of debt, investors are worrying that they had grown too optimistic even though the stock market tends to improve before the economy after a recession."
Meanwhile, I've decided to totally cutoff Election Outcome Predictions and concentrate on the following AREAS for Predictive Analyses. I'd feel real good with a small 2-3 team of statisticians/sociologists/economists :
- Disaster Early Warning System ( I'll tell you about how I knew it was a Tsunami on Dec 26, 2004 within 30 minutes. And how I could figure out Hurricane Katrina was going to be a Major Disaster. I'm following the latest Hurricane Bill, BTW - given the fact it has a lot of water to cover from which it can suck in its "life blood" though I don't have access to data like surface water temperature (averaged) plus macro atmospheric dynamics. or say forecasting how dangerous a "bhora kotal" adding on a cyclone can be. )
- Disaster Management (say, how to rectify the "bunds" in the Sunderbans or the dykes in the Netherlands)
- Global Warming After-Effects (say glacier retreat and effects on the ecology/human aspect)
- H1N1, H5N1 and other Pandemic Predictions with respect to Magnitude. (For example, what are the risk factors for escalation of a pandemic)
- Alternative Medicines. For example, for the above Pandemics.
- I.T. and other technology trend analysis.
- Macro-Economic Projections.
Sunday, July 19, 2009
"Environment minister Jairam Ramesh asserted that New Delhi was "simply not in a position" to accept any legally binding emission reductions and made it clear that India was not running away from responsibilities on the issue.
The minister's comments came at a joint press conference with US secretary of State Hillary Clinton after she toured the ITC Green Building here which showcases environment-friendly practices in India.
The US wants India to agree to limit its carbon emissions ahead of the signing of a new UN climate treaty in Copenhagen in December.
Giving a suggestion in this regard, Clinton pointed out that India's green house gas pollution was projected to grow by about 50 per cent between now and 2030 and the country was vulnerable to climate change."
My take :
This is great dialogue. Mrs. Hillary Clinton is 100% right in stating that Green House Gas Pollution may grow 50% by 2030. Of course, she is looking at the Global Scenario, the immense Green House Emission problem caused by the BRIC countries. She does have a point.
Now, I read in the detailed Times of India News that in lieu of reducing the Green House Gas pollution, Dr. Jairam Ramesh has offered to increase the forest cover. Now, increase of forest cover would automatically suck in/recycle the Green House Gases. This is a wonderful idea that Global Environmentalists/ Wildlife enthusiasts would agree upon.
What better way to counter GreenHouse Emission than by Nature itself ? Though, we have seen time and time again, that this is a very complicated issue - choosing the right flora, and introduction of the right fauna into the afforested areas.
Case in point - Australia.
However, once the afforestation sets in either through prevention of tree/shrub clearing OR planting new saplings, I'm sure, with India's biodiversity, the newly introduced (either artificially or naturally) species will do greatly
Sunday, June 28, 2009
- Team Obama's amazing Flexibility and Open Government Initiative is truely historic. Feedback from anybody can be filtered, analysed and positive steps can be taken.
- My outcome prediction for 38 out of 42 seats for the state of West Bengal came correct. That's an accuracy of 90.47 %. I spent a lot of time on this particular matter, and was myself astounded by my success. Beat all the Media & Surveys.
- Europeaan Union's Elections..makes me think - had I access to the Data 5 months back - would have been interesting trying to figure out predictive analysis. I guess India lacks the maturity to hear the Truth, but the EU doesn't. Jus' kidding ;-)
- Silver 'n' Gold. My prediction made 1.5 years back are holding steady.
- Global Economy at the same time is slowly recovering. Thanks to the long-term vision and unity between the North American, EU and Pacific Rim countries. As also co-operation from the BRIC, Mid-East and other parts of the World.
- Great Initiative by Obama's Team as also EU and other countries in understanding the problems of the Islamic Bloc and negotiating with the Mid-East countries. Truly historic from a Geopolitical sense.
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Now, here's a real fast analysis of sectors that should beat a real heavy recession. (Note that I am assuming a real heavy one). The rationale behind is also synopsised :
1. Healthcare and Medical. Reason is a long-drawn Recession would invariably make quite a large segment of the population sick from the prolonged stress and intra and inter-contry strifes.
2. Petroleum. Though there are recent downturns..it stands that the Global Petroleum reservoirs' supply/demand would encourage companies to maximise profit. This is an unfortunate truth.
3. Agro-based. Since this is a new sector, and a reduced venture capital influx to Industries, in general would encourage shift of capital to this sector.
4. Fertilisers. Since this is dependent on Agriculture.
5. Pharmaceuticals. Since this is dependent on Med.
6. Bullion-based. As well as certain Metals. Reason being people investing in them as a hedge against inflation.
7. Certain Finance sectors. This is because people will tend to park their money back into safer instruments. But I guess one should exercise caution as quite a few might fail. So, in this particular Sector, I guess one should be highly cautious of stocks.
Sectors that should not lose out are - Core Engineering, Petrochem, certain segments of Infrastructure, etc..
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Certain points for pondering :
- Much research has to be done on Strategic Partnerships vis a vis Countries. The European Union has had a head-start only due to analysis of such data.
- Economic partners should be such that they are not much skewed in one
direction. That is, one country should not be dependent on a single
country vis a vis Imports, or even Exports.
- Big Companies will struggle to keep afloat. So, they have to sub-contract at a cheaper price Projects / Consultancy Work to smaller companies. I see lot of small companies who have the necessary overall
idea about Global Macro-Economics profitting.
- Trade and other Deficits. It is unbelievable how such simple things could have been overlooked, even a schoolkid can do the basic maths. I guess we need Economic "Ankit Fadia" s (the legendary cyber-security expert)..the entire Macro-Economic Model that the Capitalist Bloc of
Countries is TOO MUCH REGIMENTED.
Disclaimer : If you've received this in your e-mail, it's part of my auto-forwarding list..which I sometimes forget revising in a hurry.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Anyway, coming back to ground reality regarding this Global Economic Meltdown...some points to ponder :
- How come most "expert" business / finance portals show the STOCK INDICES on a LINEAR SCALE ?
- Why not a SCALE based on %WISE...or logarithmic ?
- Anyone made a QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS of the COMPARATIVE SUCCESS within the last 10 years of the 4 MAJOR CAPITALIST BELTS : the U.S. - Canada belt, the EU (European belt), the Pacific Rim Belt and the Developing Countries' belt ?
Points to ponder indeed...........