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Wednesday, April 28, 2010

South East Asia Domino Effect revisited

Decades ago, decision makers were obsessed about the "Domino Effect" in South East Asia.
But could it be that this time their attention is elsewhere (it is only natural).

Note: I am differentiating this theater from the Middle East, and taking the liberty of adding the Indian sub-continent.

Now that everybody os obsessed with the Middlle East and elsewhere, are we missing a "Domino Effect" of INSTABILITY creeping in ?

Take a look at the events occurring in Myanmar, Thailand, parts of Indonesia, parts of Phillipines, recent Kampuchea border incidents...and add-in India and Pakistan. Though Thailand's a pro-democracy movement, still the crux of the matter is - greater chaos.

The Indian sub-continent is suffering a lot from chaotic elements destabilizing a huge, populous region.

If we take this Theatre as one, it has several common characteristics and I can FOLLOW A LOGICAL PATTERN:
  1. All the countries have been mainly non-aligned ....remember the many non-aligned movement.
  2. All the countries are RAPIDLY changing alignments to certain powers, sometimes 2 powers with different ideologies.
  3. This is resulting in a mini "Clash of the Sub-Civilizations" within this Geopolitical Theatre.
  4. Most conflicts are in the nature of Intra-country conflicts, or Civil Wars.
  5. There is a frightening potential of a "Domino Effect" being triggered by a Totalitarian Regime.

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