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Wednesday, December 27, 2006

DISTURB NATURE,
AND IT WILL DISTURB YOU

I must turn to the sad state of the environment. The major issues brought about by the activities of the human race are : deforestation, systematic killing of wildlife species, fossil fuel emissions, “artificial management of ecosystems”, population boom, etc.

Deforestation rates in rain forests is at an alarming rate, and you must remember that these are “ecological hotspots”. One strategic species goes missing from the system, and it can endanger a whole ecosystem web.

Tigers, snow leopards & countless key species are on the verge on extinction, thanks to the Chinese & others. They beam “If the buying stops, the killing will also”, but stopping the buying is actually a low priority in the minds of the people in power.

Mankind is worried only about Global Warming, because we think it’s the way Nature will strike us. Of course, hurricanes can eliminate thousands, tsunamis can decimate hundreds of thousands, but Nature can strike in innumerable ways.
& I’m not talking only of bird flu killing off just a few millions. BE WARNED….

Humans are making big bucks artificially managing ecosystems, introducing one species to offset other species exponential population growth. It is amusing to see developed countries like Australia obsessed with this, now targeting feral cats.
Rule # 1 of the Natural World : It is impossible to control Nature by one who is a sub-set of Nature itself.

But of course, the greatest threat is the population explosion, and you can thank the antibiotics for that. India seems to be in a mad frenzy to beat the others, followed by quite a few countries. They don’t address the issue because of vested interests.

The only solution is to have responsible people like Al Gore at the helm of the leadership in quite a few strategic countries. Unless politicians take initiative, the problem of Global Warming cannot be addressed. We, the common people, environmentalists, wildlife activists, etc have been trying for changes for decades, but the reality is : we’re losing.

Another factor is the participation of rapidly developing countries who are rampantly destroying their vegetation & other natural resources for a few yuans more. China leads the list of rogues, being responsible for the destruction of a keystone predator species, the tiger. Other countries like Brazil are also cutting down on the ecological “hotspots” of the Amazon Rain Forest where most of the biodiversity is concentrated. India’s role is also unsatisfactory.

That is why visionaries like Al Gore, Maneka Gandhi are needed at the helm of affairs. I believe a miniscule percentage of the human species really care about the environment, but still proper networking & unity amongst them can turn things around.

However, much as our species think itself invincible due to its cranial capacity…….I believe NATURE WILL STRIKE BACK….(it has already begun in a very small way, it is amusing to see how we are already alarmed). In future, I will dwell in details on the scenarios of Nature’s Revenge.

Sunday, December 17, 2006

Oncoming War : A Closer Look

As of today, what's going on, folks?

  1. CUBAN MIS(HAP) CRISIS : Not the Missile crisis of the '60 s......but, it seems more hardliners are coming in, Raoul & all. What does it mean : more headache for the US, Canada, etc. B'coz it means Venezuela, Mexico & some other Latin American countries are going to join the party... What it means is: more OIL CRISIS, because of Venezuela....start investing in DOMESTIC OIL STOCKS, because Oil Companies that depend more on overseas oil basins are IN CRISIS.

  2. CHINA FACTOR >> "Dumping" of market goods through "artificial price control" will happen bigtime. The target: European markets + N. American markets. Now, these goods are mainly consumer goods ( categorically textiles, electronics, etc.). This will depress the consumer stock markets....You should get out of these within 1 year. At the same time buy into Steel & Cement because of construction going on in China & India.

Saturday, December 16, 2006

War Escalation & Rising Stocks

As things look of now,

CONFLICTS WILL ESCALATE


Let's look at the threats first....
then look at how the Free World will react.....
& what it means to the stock market

A. THREAT FROM THE COMMUNIST BLOCs

  1. The Communist bloc of countries have gotten a breather after 9/11. As the capitalist powers are engaged in fighting the War on Terror, China is becoming more & more stronger. There will come a time when Chinese expansionism will come in direct conflict with the interests of the Free World. I'm not talking of mere market squabbles. There is bound to be conflict.
  2. Some Chinese allies (N.Korea & others) will take the opportunity. Or rather, they are already flexing their muscles...Taepodong ICBM missiles & what not. But then, these are basically monor compared to Threat
  3. Russia. The capitalist countries should remember that a large part of their nuclear arsenal is still at large.
  4. The other rising Latin American communist blocs, like Cuba & Venezuela. Some other socialist countries are already opposing

B. THREAT FROM THE ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST FORCES

  1. The Taliban is regrouping in Afghanistan Central Asia. The Western Baluchistan & NWFP areas of Pakistan are virtually run by them. As experts agree - another 9/11 scale attack is not a question of if, but when ?
  2. Iraq/Syria/Mid East Sunni powers have aligned with Islamic fundamentalist forces
  3. The Rise of the Shia Crescent. Iran, S. Iraq, Syria through to Lebanon. Not to speak of Iran going nuclear.

HOW THE FREE WORLD WILL REACT

Further terrorist attacks on Western & other capitalist powers will follow, FIRSTLY from the Islamic fundamentalist powers. This will definitely mean counter-attacks by USA & its allies. Nuclear confrontation cannot be ruled out, from either side.

Severe oil price hikes will follow

The Communist Bloc will act opportunistically. Their PRIMARY OBJECTIVE would be to cripple the capitalist market, through "dumping", "artificial price control" or othe means

? STOCK MARKETS :

Overall the indices will act see-saw. Not the trend you are familiar with today. But some stocks will rise after the initial see-saw.

Defence stocks. Their rise will be inevitable. Look into companies specializing in these sectors : companies associated with nuclear technology & missile components, suppliers of missile components & aero-defence, imaging & other surveillance companies

Oil stocks. After initial see-saws, they'll rise.

Steel & cement/infrastructure : Construction follows destruction, remember

AVOID : Fast Moving Consumer Goods Stocks, any stocks associated with spending.

REASON : Consumer spending/confidence will decrease

Next, I'll go into DETAILS of future conflicts, theatre by theatre. As well as how the markets will act.

I'll sometimes focus on the present geopolitical scenario, or what's a blog ;-) ?

Thursday, December 14, 2006

Emerging Market Players

In these times of change, let us look at some sectors.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY :

We are evolving more & more towards a networked society. Where knowledge is shared, so that maximum utilization can be made.
I guess you can put your money on companies that are harnesing the potential of the Net, such as Google. The success of the search engine was just the start. Now one has a whole gamut of services, be it news, blogs, books, open source codes, photo organisers....
But the real stunner, to some, is Google Earth. You can travel to almost any part of the globe (it's like taking a free chopper ride, I'd like you guys to explore the river valleys of the Himalayas, or the Andes)....There seems to be a "gold mine" of Geo-spatial Information still hidden...
Google Earth will evolve, value additions will take place through merging GIS applications, as well as "real time" globe scanning, imagery intelligence, town-planning, etc.
Think of the potential :
You want to take a hike in the Himalayas, let's say to Pindari Glacier during the monsoons....log on to Google Earth RealTime, zoom in ...see if it's raining in there, see if there is any landslide before Dwali or not cutting the trekking route.
A dam with hydel power capacity needs to be built across a river. Civil engineers can study the flow variations in "real-time" for a more effective construction.

CONVERGENCE . It’s the next big thing. You got PCs, mobiles, PDAs, TVs, so on….it’s just become too complex. We all want a SINGLE GADGET, & the companies are funding in for a One Stop Solution. As end – users, we just need ONE THING, not a million gadgets. Now, we ARE moving towards convergence. Your mobile is getting to look more and more like a PC, and vice versa. But, the billion $ question is: which companies are the nearest to the ONE GADGET ?

Nobody is really sure on that. But look around, do your R & D, and I hope you can find the dark horse that wins the race.

All I can say is, it’s going to be a company that you’ve probably not heard of.



Global Opportunities / Global Crisis

We are heading towards a global crisis....to deny it would be to deny Reality.

Bird Flu, Pandemics, Oil Shock, the ongoing wars .....to name a few.

The global stock markets will respond to these crises. For us, a proper market analysis will mean an understanding : When to buy (when others cry)....& when to sell (when others laugh)...

Oil Shock is coming.....imagine the potential of a fledgling company "patenting" a viable alternative energy source ?

HOWEVER, PURPOSE OF THIS BLOG IS MAKING PREDICTIONS....BASED ON PURE NEUTRAL ANALYSIS
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