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Thursday, May 6, 2010

Conservatives may scrape through

3 results gone to Labour Party.
Now, I have done not even 1 percent the usual psephological analysis I do, but it seems Consevatives may scrape through.

Reasons:

1. > 50% were dissatisfied with the unemployment factor......that's one of the number 1 or munber 2 reasons that count in elections. Number 2 could be security/law and order situation in aparticular country/state. In case of UK, that is not much of a factor, though.
2. 3 results declared show Labour Party winning, but much greater "swing factor" in favor of Conservatives.
3.Would the Lib Dems cut into the Labour Party vote bank ? Since both have a lot in common, so there would be vote division. Advantage Conservatives.

Uh oh...I again took a sneak peak ....9 results declared, Conservatives 0.
But swing factor is +4% in favor of Conservatives.....still hold they'll probably scrape thru' , as others' swing factors show negative.

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