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Saturday, August 22, 2009

My Hurricane Bill Predictions - Part 6

As of 8 pm EDT, Hurricane Bill has weakened to a Category 1. Current max. sustained wind speed 85 mph. Expected to pass offshore of New England.

A Category 1 Hurricane has the following damaging potential - "Some damage to building structures could occur, primarily to unanchored mobile homes (mainly pre-1994 construction). Some damage is likely to poorly constructed signs. Loose outdoor items will become projectiles, causing additional damage."

Internal assessment of Hurricane Bill (National Hurricane Center) reveals -

"BILL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT WITH COLD WATERS AHEAD...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. BILL SHOULD BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AFTER THE CENTER PASSES NEAR OR OVER NEWFOUNDLAND.
......
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS."

So, my take is Hurricane Bill would be primarily WEAKENED DUE TO COLDER WATERS that it is touching.

But one has to keep in mind the damaging potential of a Category 1 Hurricane when it strikes the NEW ENGLAND AREA.

I should feel safe within a very consolidated structure at an altitude that would be beyond reach of the combined rip tide + storm surge effect.
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