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Tuesday, August 12, 2008

The Russian Threat...Ukraine factor....frightening

I am really surprised at how and why the West was caught napping.

I heard a TV news broadcaster in a reputed channel saying that Ukraine may be at threat. Now, that is very,very,very serious.

Georgia has a population of I guess....7-8 million and area-wise 27,000 square miles.
But Ukraine's population is 52 million ! Area 233,000 square miles !

Ukraine had a split mandate as far as I can recollect vis a vis its relation with Russia.

The Russian tanks stormed rapidly into Georgia, though how they crossed the Caucases I dunno...some passes maybe. But they should have been heavily guarded.

My hunch is it's a fight for Oil or Strategic Positioning. Or that Georgia wants to join NATO so Russians move into Southern Ossetia.

But what about Ukraine ?

  • I heard the Black Sea Fleet is mobilized. That's a very large sub-unit of the Russian Navy. An amphibious assault from the South into Ukraine via the Black Sea Coast.
  • Combined with the Russian cocktail of Tank + Armored Vehicle + Infantry attack (one should study the Cold War history & WW2 to see how effective it is, IMHO...numero uno) will be..... say the least.

BTW, I'm just a neutral blogger examining the possibilities.....
But, one interesting thing is : If one can keep one's mind totally's difficult, believe me, and inputs the various could have seen this coming.

Though I don't think Ukraine is currently at risk.


lastochka said...

Just to clear the situation about the war in South Ossetia.

1.It's the evidence of an american who lives in South Ossetia Russia mourns victims of Ossetian blooshed

D. Dutta-Roy said...

Lastochka, thank you very very much. Your evidence + analysis + perspective in your blog I'm looking at very carefully.
Will communicate soon.