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Tuesday, August 12, 2008

The Russian Threat...Ukraine factor....frightening



I am really surprised at how and why the West was caught napping.

I heard a TV news broadcaster in a reputed channel saying that Ukraine may be at threat. Now, that is very,very,very serious.

Georgia has a population of I guess....7-8 million and area-wise 27,000 square miles.
But Ukraine's population is 52 million ! Area 233,000 square miles !

Ukraine had a split mandate as far as I can recollect vis a vis its relation with Russia.

The Russian tanks stormed rapidly into Georgia, though how they crossed the Caucases I dunno...some passes maybe. But they should have been heavily guarded.

My hunch is it's a fight for Oil or Strategic Positioning. Or that Georgia wants to join NATO so Russians move into Southern Ossetia.

But what about Ukraine ?

  • I heard the Black Sea Fleet is mobilized. That's a very large sub-unit of the Russian Navy. An amphibious assault from the South into Ukraine via the Black Sea Coast.
  • Combined with the Russian cocktail of Tank + Armored Vehicle + Infantry attack (one should study the Cold War history & WW2 to see how effective it is, IMHO...numero uno) will be.....

DISASTROUS....to say the least.

BTW, I'm just a neutral blogger examining the possibilities.....
But, one interesting thing is : If one can keep one's mind totally neutral.....it's difficult, believe me, and inputs the various parameters....one could have seen this coming.

Though I don't think Ukraine is currently at risk.

2 comments:

lastochka said...

Just to clear the situation about the war in South Ossetia.

1.It's the evidence of an american who lives in South Ossetia
http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/28788/video

2.today Russia mourns victims of Ossetian blooshed
http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/28945/video

D. Dutta-Roy said...

Lastochka, thank you very very much. Your evidence + analysis + perspective in your blog I'm looking at very carefully.
Will communicate soon.

http://chitika.com/publishers.php?refid=debajyoti