I am leaving the Middle-East to the Indian sub-continent in this scenario.
There's massive problem in the South-East Asian Theatre and the Far East.
South East Asian Theatre:
1. Thailand. Great Instability. What with the Red Shirts infuriated, there is bound to be further backlashes.
2. Burma. There was a chance for democracy. It has failed, and situation will deteriorate.
Far East Theatre:
Horrible things have been discovered. Covert torpedoing of a South Korean ship, breaking all international rules. No warning issued, no notification given that the S.Korean ship had accidentally strayed into N.Korea's maritime waters. Loss of 40+ lives.
Japan, S.Korea, Taiwan are , obviously on standby. With the heavily protected DMZ of S.Korea manned by UN troops also, there is little chance of success by the N. Korean regular troops to launch a full-scale offensive.
But the threat of missiles remains.
It is good that the international community is exploring diplomatic options.
But all this instability may affect the Far East and South East markets.
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Showing posts with label thailand. Show all posts
Showing posts with label thailand. Show all posts
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
South East Asia Domino Effect revisited
Decades ago, decision makers were obsessed about the "Domino Effect" in South East Asia.
But could it be that this time their attention is elsewhere (it is only natural).
Note: I am differentiating this theater from the Middle East, and taking the liberty of adding the Indian sub-continent.
Now that everybody os obsessed with the Middlle East and elsewhere, are we missing a "Domino Effect" of INSTABILITY creeping in ?
Take a look at the events occurring in Myanmar, Thailand, parts of Indonesia, parts of Phillipines, recent Kampuchea border incidents...and add-in India and Pakistan. Though Thailand's a pro-democracy movement, still the crux of the matter is - greater chaos.
The Indian sub-continent is suffering a lot from chaotic elements destabilizing a huge, populous region.
If we take this Theatre as one, it has several common characteristics and I can FOLLOW A LOGICAL PATTERN:
But could it be that this time their attention is elsewhere (it is only natural).
Note: I am differentiating this theater from the Middle East, and taking the liberty of adding the Indian sub-continent.
Now that everybody os obsessed with the Middlle East and elsewhere, are we missing a "Domino Effect" of INSTABILITY creeping in ?
Take a look at the events occurring in Myanmar, Thailand, parts of Indonesia, parts of Phillipines, recent Kampuchea border incidents...and add-in India and Pakistan. Though Thailand's a pro-democracy movement, still the crux of the matter is - greater chaos.
The Indian sub-continent is suffering a lot from chaotic elements destabilizing a huge, populous region.
If we take this Theatre as one, it has several common characteristics and I can FOLLOW A LOGICAL PATTERN:
- All the countries have been mainly non-aligned ....remember the many non-aligned movement.
- All the countries are RAPIDLY changing alignments to certain powers, sometimes 2 powers with different ideologies.
- This is resulting in a mini "Clash of the Sub-Civilizations" within this Geopolitical Theatre.
- Most conflicts are in the nature of Intra-country conflicts, or Civil Wars.
- There is a frightening potential of a "Domino Effect" being triggered by a Totalitarian Regime.
Labels:
clash of civilizations,
domino effect,
myanmar,
southeast asia,
thailand
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