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Friday, August 21, 2009

My Hurricane Bill Forecasting - part 4



Hurricane Bill strengthened upto Category 4 as correctly predicted by me. Do see last 4 postings.


Now, here are 2 things, according to my analysis, that are going to save hundreds of lives :


1. Trajectory Change. This may make a dramatic effect in weakening Hurricane Bill from Category 4 to Category 1, saving hundreds of lives.

2. Distance from landmass. Notice that the projected path with its area of influence will be outside Bermuda. Thus the effect on Bermuda may be that of a Tropical Storm or Category 1. Given the huge expanse of the
Atlantic.


Do see the following pic:

But, there is still a chance that it might wobble if there are UNEVEN ISOBARIC PATCHES.

Also, one has to remember that this is a Hurricane that is see-sawing between Category 3 and Category 4.


So, going by the adage -"Better safe and sorry" one has to watch for stretches of unusually warm water that might fall if the Hurricane deviates from the projected trajectory.

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