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Monday, December 8, 2008

Indian Mainstream Media Can't make Correct Psephological Analysis..part 1

Take the Mayavati ("behenji") FACTOR !

Assembly Elections of the Indian States of Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Delhi , Rajasthan are out..
20+ ODD NEWS CHANNELS MISSED OUT on the Mayavati Factor ! Urban, sophisticated, journalism school elite man these channels...BUT THEY CAN'T FATHOM THE WIDTH & DEPTH OF THE MAYAVATI FACTOR.

Like they couldn't fathom in 2004 Lok Sabha Elections..But my prediction came 5 short of the NDA figure (there was a Prize Winning Contest by a leading News channel also)..

I did DETAILED PSEPHOLOGICAL CALCULATIONS..But I also factored in the discussions I had with 7+ people aboard a Sleeper Class 3010 Down Doon Express I was travelling, Dehra Dun - Howrah April 2004 THROUGH THE HINDI "HEART OF INDIA"..and I came near the Truth, Vinod Dua ee-style - Rural India was "not shining"..1 of the 7 only ventured into the share markets, but - "Market se to hum bhi thora kamaya..par hamara chota mota Textile Business ka bara baj giya"..revelation indeed.

This HINDI "HEART OF INDIA" HAS TO BE UNDERSTOOD TO UNDERSTAND INDIA !!! Shame on us that a few Westerners can even make better ANALYSIS..from the time of Jim Corbett.

This HINDI "HEART OF INDIA" accounts for 65% of the Lok Sabha 543 seats. Geographically almost 50% of India..the rest of India is DIVIDED..Do the calculations..

The Dalits, the "ati pichchal jati" , the minorities of India, even the poor Brahmins..residing in villages where there is no electricity (Read the Census of India 2001 >> I think 40-60% still don't have electricity)..are VOTING QUITE CONSIDERABLY FOR MAYAVATI..not in great numbers yet..

But a quiet non-violent revolution is going on in the HEART OF INDIA.
Look at the seats which are being picked up by the BSP...where it had NO PRESCENCE beforehand !

U.P. (Lok Sabha 80 seats) - BSP is the single largest party..sweeping the last Assembly elections.
But these elctions throw up a SURPRISE !

BSP is picking up seats in Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Rajasthan , Chattisgarh..very few. But there was no prescence of the BSP in these remote areas. In previous elections it picked seats in other states, also.

But what does it SAY ?

My prediction is :
Ram Vilas Paswan played the 'kingmaker' of Bihar in the last Bihar ka Assembly elections with even a few seats.

Mayavati is NOW IN A POSITION to play the 'kingmaker' in the NEXT LOK SABHA ELECTIONS..She is cutting into the votebank of the BJP & Congress. Hence both are losing seats. Primarily into the votebank of the BJP.
The BJP stunned everybody by its meteoric rise way back in it may be the BSP. It may even get 50-60 seats out of 543. Greater impact is it will erode seats of BJP & Congress due to the "Swing Factor" + Anti-Incumbency Factor.

The party which allies with BSP..pre-electoral adjustments made correctly will heap RICH DIVIDENDS.

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