Learning from survivors of Leh

One can study from the three survivors of Leh flash floods.

Of course, the survivors are traumatized after 2 days' buried beneath the debris. So, I am of firm conviction it is not at all a good idea to ask questions right now. They are right now so traumatized that it would be very difficult to get any rational, logical answers from them.

However, let me analyze a few things:

Labradors were used to retrieve the survivors. But as well as I can remember, there are other breeds of dogs, which I cannot remember, but are probably Golden Retrievers and Saint Bernard dogs. Saint Bernard dogs are of course, used in snow-clad areas of very high altitudes.

One good idea would be to use more of these dogs. Because animals have a sixth sense, which of course, has been found partially scientifically, and they can locate survivors far easily than mechanical devices.

Proper training, keeping the Labradors motivated throughout, and having an optimum amount of skilled canines, is of course a Disaster Management policy, that has to be exploresd, researched more thoroughly.

Solving the Mumbai Oil Spill

Let me point out the problems and solutions to the Mumbai oil slick from a layman's point of view:

From Times of India report, it may take 6 to 8 months to remove the ship from the shallow bed on which it is lying. Solution: An Underwater ROV can be placed to keep a watch on what is happening in and around the ship.

Meanwhile MPT officials have sent in a team to pump out the oil. This is a very good move. Also pumping out oil won't take very long.

The oil slick has reached the shores. Solution: Mumbai authorities have taken right decision to ask people not to panic. One has to look at that Dale Carnegie's portion of "How to Stop Worrying" - tell the people, what is the worst that can happen. The answer is that in Reality, not really something disastrous.

How to solve the oil slick. Solution: Any oil slick will be maximum in the middle. So, the best thing would be to focus on the middle of the oil slick, which has the most concentration. One has to only study the flow of oil to understand this.

I'll be putting forward more on the Mumbai oil slick SOLUTIONS.

Solutions for Containing Mubai Oil Spill

Got wonderful Audio-Visuals and Coverage from India Today regarding Oil Spill:
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/site/Story/108351/LATEST HEADLINE

VISUALS show a lot about the oil spill which is into the 3rd day due to Two Panamanian cargo ships colliding.

Here are my amateur oil spill threats and mitigation /solutions:

We see the cargo containing oil falling - 300 containers carrying oil have
tumbled into the water. SOLUTION :The sea floor bed is relatively shallow.
Those oil containers would be sitting on the sea floor. So, an ingenous solution may be - putting across a long line of plastic with depth of approximately 2 feet. Oil floats on water, and it would be difficult to cross the barrier.

If ship goes down, which it seems it would within a certain time. SOLUTION : Monitor damage to marine life from hazardous elements. Also, monitor chemical amounts ingested by fish. Because this fish might be consumed by humans.

Most important of all - people should be told not to panic. The methodology is given in my earlier postings.

Oil slick is 5 nautical miles in length. SOLUTION : Weather and tide patterns from a historic point of view have to be studied to come to an understanding WHICH WAY THE OIL SLICK WILL BE MOVING.

Solving Environmental Crises - Part 3

This is Part 3 of my humble endeavour to give ideas in solving Global Environmental Catastrophes.
I gave some solutions with respect to the Leh Floods, the Pakistan deluge, the China mudslides and floods, and the Russian wildfires.

Now, here's turning to the Gulf Well Oil Spillage Crisis. Here are my ideas:

First and foremost, people have to be told through Public Broadcasting System not to panic, and to be told that it is a natural catastrophe over which Mankind has no hand. To be more precise, it is an Act of Nature.

Volunteers in cleaning up the oil spill can be given special incentive. This can be in the form of a contest. The person who cleans up the most oil-smattered ecological debris in a plastic bag gets the highest prize.

Research into oil-eating bacteria.

The plug is capped. So, this is a great thing. Since it has been capped on mid-July, there is little chance of more oil spilling.

Innovative sensors can be put to check on the cap. These can be pressure-sensors attached to the cap. Reason is : If the oil starts to surge up, the pressure-sensors can gauge any upcoming oil spill.

Residual oil spill can be tracked by looking at the thermohaline Gulf Stream convective ocean current. The way in which the oil will be moving can be tracked in advance.

I will be writing about 7-8 articles on Environmental Disaster Management if my Net connection stays o.k.

Mud Slide in China - how to solve it

Just few minutes back, surfing the Net got this News from China about a massive mud slide and Flood in China:

"The death toll rose to at least 96 people on Sunday after massive landslides hit northwest China, state media reported.

About 2,000 more people are missing after the landslides, which were triggered by heavy rains, Xinhua news agency said.

The landslides occurred early Sunday morning after heavy rains started pummeling the area Saturday, authorities said."

How to solve it:

1. Afforestation
2. Chinese are very efficient in utilizing manpower. Step 1 can be very effectively carried out.
3. Using plastic bags filled with sand to contain the weak spots in the landslide zone.
4. Again as in last posting, building dams in upper catchment area.
   

Step 4 is for solving the flood problems.

Solutions for the Global Environmental Catastrophes

Since we all live and move within a certain location radius, it is not possible for us to see a Global Environmental Catastrophe.

Here are a few Solutions for the Global Environmental Catastrophes occurring throughout the world:

1. Forest fires around Moscow causing widespread smog. Solutions: The Nuclear Plant has to be saved at first priority. A ditch can be built around the Nuclear Plant constantly filled with Foam, the only thing that resists Fires. Foam is far better than Fire.

2. Leh Floods in India. A good idea would be to construct a Preventionary Dam, with a Diversionary Canal upstream from where the water came.

3. Pakistan Floods. The same idea as in the Leh Floods. Build upstream Dams to divert water in case of Flash floods.

4. Hurricane Season in U.S.A. and other countries. Good thing would be to identify spots where Hurricanes originate. A Plot Graph of locations where Hurricanes have originated. If this can be done, one can look at the root of the problem.

My Understanding of Islam - part 3

This is part 3 of my understanding of Islam. And may I say,to understand Islam, as with all Religions, one needs to not only intellectually , in a prosaic manner Read through the vast lietrature of the Holy Koran and its many associated works, but interact with Muslims.

And it is through this INTERACTION with my 3 close Muslim friends, as well as students who happened to adhere to the faith of Islam, as well as numerous Muslim acquaintances with whom I had chit-chatted on the roads of Calcutta mainly, that I came to an understanding of this Religion.

All with whom I have interacted are mainstream and follow the middle path.
But let me share with you what all have in COMMON: FAITH. DEEP FAITH.

The other traits which I have noticed are:

HONESTY. Almost none have shown to be dishonest. And I was especially astounded at the level of honesty found among the poorer sections of the Muslims. Where does this honesty come from, I wondered, using my brains. But, the answer lay somewhere else, the Honesty comes from the Faith itself.

BRAVERY. When accosted with wierd problems out of a property dispute which is ongoing, the first person I approached was Muslim by faith. In the U.S. of A, the first person who risked his car to teach me driving was a Muslim.

FRIENDSHIP. If you look at my second para, you'll understand that my Friendship with Muslims have stood the test of time. Not only that, even 4-5 hours of friendship, say, on a travelling train, where I can put my luggage in peace, and disembark on a station to buy some poori-luchi, stands the test.

Muslims that I have known, in ONE SIMPLE PHRASE -

NEVER BACKSTABBED ME.

......to be continued

My Understanding of Islam - part 2

My appreciation of Islam grew when I specialized in studying its one aspect - the DEPTH OF THE HOLY KURAN'S LOVE OF NATURE.

That was part of my last posting, but there are so many things unsaid. Like the Prophet's primary dictate regarding the absolute abolition of cutting of trees. His respect for the BASIC ELEMENTS OF NATURE, in which lies the foundations of ECO-CONSERVATION.

Most interesting, I found the Prophet Muhammad's classification of animals. I will dwell upon this later.

Now, comes a STARTLING FACT I DISCOVERED IN ISLAM. And this idea was also formed after my strong interactions with 3 of my very close Muslim friends.

This was the CONCEPT OF SOCIALISM & BROTHERHOOD INHERENT IN ISLAM.

Take a look at the Holy Gatherings. The orderly praying. And after that, the giving away of alms to the needy. This is done after special Holy festivities, too.

Most important is the feeling of Brotherhood, that of All People Being EQUAL, the FEELING during the Mass Prayer. I thought to myself - If the FEELING (Dil Se) OF EQUALITY is absent in other political -isms (Note: Not Religious -isms), what is the point in pushing forward such an agenda.

I will dwell more on this FEELING AND ACTUAL EQUAL DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH UNDER ISLAM in some of my later writings.

My understanding of Islam - part 1

The purpose of this post is to dispel certain misgivings / rumours I have been hearing about me
lately. First let me clarify one thing - I AM HINDU , but regard all religions with respect, and
am a man in search of God.

Post- 9/11 , like MOST people around the world, I began interested in understanding Islam.
Of course, before 9/11, I had 3 VERY CLOSE Muslim friends. I also had some other friends of
Islamic faith, but they were mere acquaintances. Now, with 2 of my Muslim friends, I used to have HOURS AND HOURS of philosophical discussions, and sometimes they used to touch Religion.

So, I had a tentative, HEART-FELT, INTUITIVE UNDERSTANDING of Islam before 9/11.
9/11 shocked me, as it did every human being. And, being the curious creature that I am - like Muezza the Cat, I began delving into the Net about Islam.

My anger slowly dissipated over years as I began to see the surface beneath the depth of a great Religion.

HOURS AND HOURS I spent trying to understand Islam. At the point of time that I am, I have
reached certain conclusions -

Islam respects Nature. In fact, the Holy Koran is rightly called the Book of Nature. One can see
a wonderful movie called "Muhammad, Messenger of Allah" directed by Moustapha Akkad, to come to a
basic understanding of the message of the Prophet Mohammad. In true Islamic tradition, the
Prophet is not shown. Anyway, a cursory viewing of the film reveals the deep love theProphet
Mohammed had for Nature. In this movie is shown the Prophet Mohammed's doctrines underlying his PROHIBITTING CUTTING OF TREES. As also, is shown how his life is saved by Qaswa, his devoted Camel, as also, a spider, doves, the elements of Nature like the DESERT itself.

Searching the Net, one can find wonderful stories about Muezza the Cat. Almost every Muslim knows about the stories of Muezza. This love of the ordinary Cat is extended to all the Big Cats.

It took me hours of research to understand that Islam respects Nature to the extent that ALL
ENVIRONMENTALISTS AND WILD-LIFE ENTHUSIASTS LIKE ME, can learn a lot from Islam.

My take on Paul the Octopus

After my favourite team Germany, of which I was a supporter since 1986, lost - I really am stupefied about this Paul the Octopus.

Obviously, Paul is a FAR BETTER PREDICTOR/MARINE NOSTRADAMUS or whatever than I am, there is no doubt.

Anyway, logically speaking, I can only say these things -

Such predictions have a "mass psychology" effect on the whole team. These are the psychological pressure points :

1. An entire country's population watching the team.
   
2. 11 players , after winning 5 games, TOTALLY IS UNDER INDUCED FAILURE SUGGESTION - that they are going to lose.
   
3. FIFA World Cup is about STRATEGY more than dribbling the ball around. How can the Coach cool-headedly draw up a strategy beforehand.
4. Within the fastest game on earth , forgetting jal-alai, COACHES DYNAMICALLY CHANGE STRATEGIES. With the spectre of Paul hanging on their heads, obviously the Coach can't concentrate. And draw up better plans to counter the offense via more off-side traps, more man-to-man marking, whether to allocate 1 or 2 "sweepers" -the genius concept created by Franz Beckenbauer, whether to switch attack from the left flank to the right flank, whether to initiate attack from the classic midfield position, whether to give very long passes to - say 1 to 3 passes to give the ball to the right person to get a shot at the goal, whether when you are down by one goal - to focus how much on defence and so on and so forth.

I wouldn't eat this Paul the Octopus, the famed Cephalod, neither would I carry out ridiculous experiments on it, but let it loose back into the ocean where it belongs.

Severe Weather Predictions for Bengal for next 5 months

Based on certain parameters, most of which are attributable to Global Warming, one can predict severe Floods, post-Flood problems, Tidal Surges and Cyclones :

1. This whole summer, as also the weather uptil now, has seen a SUSTAINED LONG TIME of higher than normal temperatures over the whole of Bay of Bengal. I am quite sure it is beyond the realm of weather satellites to cover this whole humongous water stretch. Now, what happens due to this whole mass of WARM water body ? It acts as an ENGINE . An ENGINE for CYCLONES to SUPERCYCLONES, as well as sudden FLOODS due to local INTENSE DEPRESSIONS.
   
2. SEVERE FLOODS , caused due to many factors coming together, like heavy rainfall in upper catchment areas + elevated river bed due to silting + many other factors , which I will talk about later. These will flood extensive areas of sub-Gangetic West Bengal as also other states.
3. TIDAL SURGES , like the bhora kotals to others, would add to the FLOODS AND/OR CYCLONIC RAINFALL EFFECT, to overcome the bundhs and embankments and cause FLOODING.
4. SUPERCYCLONES, like AILA of the past year. Statistically speaking, it is highly probable that at least one of such INTENSITY would hit sub-Gangetic Bengal. There is also a medium to high probability that 2 such SUPERCYCLONES could hit sub-Gangetic Bengal. The MULTIPLE EFFECTS, of course, are left to one's imagination.

As in the past year, of course, such SEVERE WEATHER WARNING would be for next 4 to 5 months.

Geopolitical Factors that might affect the Asian Markets

I am leaving the Middle-East to the Indian sub-continent in this scenario.

There's massive problem in the South-East Asian Theatre and the Far East.

South East Asian Theatre:

1. Thailand. Great Instability. What with the Red Shirts infuriated, there is bound to be further backlashes.

2. Burma. There was a chance for democracy. It has failed, and situation will deteriorate.

Far East Theatre:

Horrible things have been discovered. Covert torpedoing of a South Korean ship, breaking all international rules. No warning issued, no notification given that the S.Korean ship had accidentally strayed into N.Korea's maritime waters. Loss of 40+ lives.

Japan, S.Korea, Taiwan are , obviously on standby. With the heavily protected DMZ of S.Korea manned by UN troops also, there is little chance of success by the N. Korean regular troops to launch a full-scale offensive.

But the threat of missiles remains.

It is good that the international community is exploring diplomatic options.

But all this instability may affect the Far East and South East markets.

Root Cause of being Anti-Establishment

The root cause of being Anti-Establishment lies in the Mind.
It does not depend on one's Bank Balance or Total Assets.
I've seen , in India, as well as many other countries, quite rich people (say assets with$5 million) being severely anti-Establishment. Studying these people, I've found it's some die-hard things that they Believe in. It is also, in SOME MINOR CASES, FRUSTRATION. AT NOT REACHING THE SUPER-RICH BRACKET (VHNWI).
The super-rich (VHNWI) are never anti-Establishment. I guess, that's because they just have to be pro-Establishment, to maintain their Brand Equity. What they have achieved through hard work. Example is Bill Gates, he's slipping from his No. 1 position, and that is not his concern. His concern is that people still maintain Faith in Windows and what Microsoft has to offer. Same happened in case of Steve Jobbs, and will probably happen in case of Google's founders.
Meanwhile the middle-class and the poor are a study in contrast.
Let me look at India.
I myself, a middle-class Indian, am pro-Establishment in 90% of things. Though my earnings have really fallen the last 1 year. Still, it's my bent of mind. I like the Capitalist system. I like a Socialist State trying hard, very hard, to embrace a DUAL SYSTEM, trying to balance out Industrialization, at the same time trying to solve the problem of its Rural poor.
I said 90% pro-Establishment.
I'm 10% anti-Establisment in case of Environmental and Wildlife Issues. To a medium degree, because of what I believe in.
With respect to the vast poor people in India, frustration is the root cause of anti-Establishment.
But at the same time I have found some amazing cases of poor people who are pro-Establishment.
Trying to understand the root cause of Anti-Establishment is a very, very difficult thing.
Because it lies in the Mind.
And the Mind itself is mind-boggling ;-)

Revolutionary Project to SAVE South China Tiger

Way back in 2005 or something, I saw a Documentary in the National Geographic channel regarding a REVOLUTIONARY Project to save the South China Tiger.

The basic idea was that there were regions in Africa - Ecosystems, basically, that would sustain and increase the almost extinct in the wild South China Tiger.

It's an extremely detailed Project done by a handful of individuals.

If you are REALLY INTERESTED in saving the tiger, all you have to do is go to their website (which I rediscovered today thanks to Al-Jazeera) :

http://english.savechinastigers.org


It's a model worth studying, believe me.

Some conclusions I've reached

While looking at Global Events ( be it Geopolitics, Current Affairs, Psephology, Defense Analysis, Global Warming, Environmental Crises) most of us always predict the Future from 2 completely polarized, opposite angles:

1. Scientific / Tech Angle. This is , as in modern times, highly specialized. To be quite precise, super-specialized. Whole Governments/Countries depend on this method only.

2. Religion.

Now, could there be a Middle Way to take into account all Religions.....comprising the empirical knowledge/analyses that were after all developed through thousands of years

AND

a Generalized Scientific/Tech approach based on mathematical calculations that really do not require much more than a pocket calculator ?

If you are skeptical, let me give you some examples -

In Business, the richest people made money, say from the stock market and other speculative means, using not much sophisticated Maths. Of course, they spent hours making those calculations.

In Technology, such as I.T., the richest people made money following an uncanny trend to guess in which direction technology would go. Example - Bill Gates figuring out Windows being the future and grabbing the license for DOS from IBM, and then picking up the WIMPs template from Apple.

In War, the greatest generals did not pass out from Colleges. Examples - Napoleon, Stalin, Hitler, Mao, George Washington and so many others. And none of them were specialized and had formal war training. It was the Strategy that mattered.

Environmental Issues...Al Gore made startling revelations that surpassed many specialized scientists.

BBC exit polls totally accurate

I was surprised at the accuracy level of the exit polls conducted by BBC and 2 other organizations.

Watched thru' a part of the program and part on the Net, it was amazing.

Another interesting thing happening in the European Union is how its tackling its financial crisis. I'm sure it EU will overcome.

Conservatives may scrape through

3 results gone to Labour Party.
Now, I have done not even 1 percent the usual psephological analysis I do, but it seems Consevatives may scrape through.

Reasons:

1. > 50% were dissatisfied with the unemployment factor......that's one of the number 1 or munber 2 reasons that count in elections. Number 2 could be security/law and order situation in aparticular country/state. In case of UK, that is not much of a factor, though.
2. 3 results declared show Labour Party winning, but much greater "swing factor" in favor of Conservatives.
3.Would the Lib Dems cut into the Labour Party vote bank ? Since both have a lot in common, so there would be vote division. Advantage Conservatives.

Uh oh...I again took a sneak peak ....9 results declared, Conservatives 0.
But swing factor is +4% in favor of Conservatives.....still hold they'll probably scrape thru' , as others' swing factors show negative.

South East Asia Domino Effect revisited

Decades ago, decision makers were obsessed about the "Domino Effect" in South East Asia.
But could it be that this time their attention is elsewhere (it is only natural).

Note: I am differentiating this theater from the Middle East, and taking the liberty of adding the Indian sub-continent.

Now that everybody os obsessed with the Middlle East and elsewhere, are we missing a "Domino Effect" of INSTABILITY creeping in ?

Take a look at the events occurring in Myanmar, Thailand, parts of Indonesia, parts of Phillipines, recent Kampuchea border incidents...and add-in India and Pakistan. Though Thailand's a pro-democracy movement, still the crux of the matter is - greater chaos.

The Indian sub-continent is suffering a lot from chaotic elements destabilizing a huge, populous region.

If we take this Theatre as one, it has several common characteristics and I can FOLLOW A LOGICAL PATTERN:

1. All the countries have been mainly non-aligned ....remember the many non-aligned movement.
2. All the countries are RAPIDLY changing alignments to certain powers, sometimes 2 powers with different ideologies.
3. This is resulting in a mini "Clash of the Sub-Civilizations" within this Geopolitical Theatre.
4. Most conflicts are in the nature of Intra-country conflicts, or Civil Wars.
5. There is a frightening potential of a "Domino Effect" being triggered by a Totalitarian Regime.

Sinking of New Moore Island a pointer to Global Warming's Effects

I remember, while a kid in Class 8, sometime in 1979, I guess, listening to my Geography teacher, highly erudite vis a vis the border dispute arising from the appearance of an island....It was called the New Moore Island. The rate at which it was growing led many to discuss heatedly whom it belonged to - India or Bangladesh.

Well, seems like Nature had the final say.

Now, New Moore Island has been swallowed by the transgressive sea, just as Digha and other sea towns are being...

Well, check out some stuff from Rave and Rant by Eugence:
"Many of the people on this site are demanding evidence that Climate Change is
happening. After all it is still cold in the winter.

For the people in low lying islands there is little dispute. They can see
their homes disappearing a little more each year. There are many island
nations like the Maldives, Tuvalu, and Kiribati where the highest point in
the nations range from six to fifteen feet. These islanders are looking for
new homes.

This year an island in the Bay of Bengal disappeared below the waves, ending
a territorial dispute between India and Bangladeshi. The Bay of Bengal
island, which India called New Moore Island and Bangladesh referred to as
South Talpatti, has ceased to exist.

This island was uninhabited and had no structures on it, but used to be 1.3
miles long and 1.1 miles wide and was 6 feet above sea level in 1990."

Foggiest Republic Day in India pointer to climate change

This year witnessed probably the foggiest day in Delhi marring the Republic Day celebrations. And this is a pointer of things to come, courtesy the worldwide climatic deviations due to Global Warming.

Well, this winter only, we witnessed the longest chill period. Considering the extremely low mean maximum temperatures, as also the very small mean difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, IT WAS THE MOST UNUSUAL COLD WAVE.

As to the summer extremes and whether the Himalayan Glaciers are facing extinction, only time will tell.

Coming back to the fog..........
I think we would be seeing a gradual increase year by year to more and more FOG-LADEN WEATHER, affecting TRANSPORTATION, such as Railways, Airlines and Roadway Communications of India. I pointed to the 4-5 reasons behind this phenomenon in one of my blogs.

The Railways were very unfortunately hit by this prolonged fog, resulting in quite a number of unprecedented accidents.

There could be a solution to this that could be researched - usage of YELLOW FOG LIGHTS that would have a GREATER RANGE in visualizing the train track lengths.

Mother's Ill Health Cause for Longest Break from Blogging

This is about the longest break from blogging.

It's due to my mother's severe ill-health. As you all know, she was hospitalized with Life-Threatening Deep Vein Thrombosis, and had suffered a series of multiple small subacute infarcts due to mini-strokes.
Recovery is taking a long time, and it is heart-rendering to see the detrioration in her gait. She is slowly recovering.

This came as quite a severe shock to the whole family, and my father as also me are also under quite a lot of physical and emotional distress.

However, I will soon resume Blogging.