Indian Mainstream Media Can't make Correct Psephological Analysis..part 1

Take the Mayavati ("behenji") FACTOR !

Assembly Elections of the Indian States of Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Delhi , Rajasthan are out..
20+ ODD NEWS CHANNELS MISSED OUT on the Mayavati Factor ! Urban, sophisticated, journalism school elite man these channels...BUT THEY CAN'T FATHOM THE WIDTH & DEPTH OF THE MAYAVATI FACTOR.

Like they couldn't fathom in 2004 Lok Sabha Elections..But my prediction came 5 short of the NDA figure (there was a Prize Winning Contest by a leading News channel also)..

I did DETAILED PSEPHOLOGICAL CALCULATIONS..But I also factored in the discussions I had with 7+ people aboard a Sleeper Class 3010 Down Doon Express I was travelling, Dehra Dun - Howrah April 2004 THROUGH THE HINDI "HEART OF INDIA"..and I came near the Truth, Vinod Dua ee-style - Rural India was "not shining"..1 of the 7 only ventured into the share markets, but - "Market se to hum bhi thora kamaya..par hamara chota mota Textile Business ka bara baj giya"..revelation indeed.

This HINDI "HEART OF INDIA" HAS TO BE UNDERSTOOD TO UNDERSTAND INDIA !!! Shame on us that a few Westerners can even make better ANALYSIS..from the time of Jim Corbett.

This HINDI "HEART OF INDIA" accounts for 65% of the Lok Sabha 543 seats. Geographically almost 50% of India..the rest of India is DIVIDED..Do the calculations..

The Dalits, the "ati pichchal jati" , the minorities of India, even the poor Brahmins..residing in villages where there is no electricity (Read the Census of India 2001 >> I think 40-60% still don't have electricity)..are VOTING QUITE CONSIDERABLY FOR MAYAVATI..not in great numbers yet..

But a quiet non-violent revolution is going on in the HEART OF INDIA.
Look at the seats which are being picked up by the BSP...where it had NO PRESCENCE beforehand !

U.P. (Lok Sabha 80 seats) - BSP is the single largest party..sweeping the last Assembly elections.
But these elctions throw up a SURPRISE !

BSP is picking up seats in Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Rajasthan , Chattisgarh..very few. But there was no prescence of the BSP in these remote areas. In previous elections it picked seats in other states, also.

But what does it SAY ?
The stunning GEOGRAPHICAL SIZE INTO WHICH THE BSP HAS PENETRATED...

My prediction is :
Ram Vilas Paswan played the 'kingmaker' of Bihar in the last Bihar ka Assembly elections with even a few seats.

Mayavati is NOW IN A POSITION to play the 'kingmaker' in the NEXT LOK SABHA ELECTIONS..She is cutting into the votebank of the BJP & Congress. Hence both are losing seats. Primarily into the votebank of the BJP.
The BJP stunned everybody by its meteoric rise way back in 1999..now it may be the BSP. It may even get 50-60 seats out of 543. Greater impact is it will erode seats of BJP & Congress due to the "Swing Factor" + Anti-Incumbency Factor.

The party which allies with BSP..pre-electoral adjustments made correctly will heap RICH DIVIDENDS.

Post-Obama projections...OMG I'll be terribly unpopular

Change was needed. There was no doubt about that. But..may I ask a few questions at the RISK OF BEING HIGHLY UNPOPULAR:

• EXPERIENCE. Was it that hard to find someone as experienced , or half as experienced as Gen Colin Powell ?
  
• Obama will have to rely HEAVILY on Advisors..Good to see some Google people being inducted into their ranks -)
• The Global Economic Meltdown..the trillions of $ of deficits of many countries..Anybody has ANY IDEA as to the UNITED ELITE TEAM that has to be formed to save the Economy ??? Warren Buffet's a real good choice, yeah..But didn't somebody say.."The Buck Stops here" -) Advisors can give advice..but to sort out the relevant and make a DECISION..that's what counts
  
• Defense Policies..Zbrenewski (heck, I'll have to check on the spelling) is an excellent foreign policy advisor. Though I do not agree totally with his hardliner policies. But what about the conflict / DISUNITY amongst the team ? I liked Zbrenewski ;-) he gave a HARD TIME to the BBC anchorman hosting Hard Talk..for a change. Heh..heh
• The reaction from the EU has been not that vigorous..which makes me thinking. They seem to be MORE IN TOUCH WITH THE ECONOMIC REALITIES than the HYPE stuff in the U.S. of A.
• The U.S. of A. that I saw in the 1988-94 Era..was a very CONFUSED , disoriented one. Now I do not have any objection with the stuff they used to watch on T.V...but I was aghast at THEIR KNOWLEDGE of World Affairs..as opposed to the VETERANS (people in their 60's say)..I hope Obama chooses some of the veterans..
• Most importantly, COME AT AN UNITED POLICY..be it Foriegn Poilicy, Global Security Issues, Economic Policies..
  

Non-Disclaimer to my ex-Professors / Economists / others on auto forward list: Your comments / feedback are most welcome on this blog. No need to e-mail me. Your writing directly on this blog will be a GLOBAL DEBATE we most need. FEEL FREE......

ECONOMIC NOSTRADAMUS...It is a bit painful to see the Future

Yeah..folks. But the TRUTH that is unfolding has to be told. It is a combination of
GEOPOLITICAL FACTORS, MARKET TRENDS....and WAR.

The TRUTH, as I see it is...my dear Friends :

THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC MELTDOWN WILL CONTINUE. People ignored stalwarts like George Soros, Warren Buffet..You all want to hear the TRUTH...don't you ?

THE DEFICIT...GLOBAL, NATIONWISE,STATEWISE..shall have to be DECREASED. There will be many casualties..Financial Institutions will collapse.

Individually, loan-takers will suffer. SACRIFICES HAVE TO BE MADE..LOANS HAVE TO BE RECOVERED, AND WILL BE RECOVERED BY BANKS.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC MELTDOWN WILL HAVE MANY GEOPOLITICAL UPSETS :

• Obama has a greater chance of becoming President of the U.S. Yes, the tables have turned. But...to turn around the U.S. Economy will be a task greater than that what Roosevelt (WW2) faced.
• Russia > Putin or his protege will turn stronger. Russia will grow strong. Look Westwards.
• India > NDA will come to power. Some Indian States will see greater turmoil if issues are handled by people who DO NOT UNDERSTAND THE GLOBAL SCENARIO.
• Japan will grow stronger. Will start building its military.
• China will start facing confusion and economic slowdown, and possibly disaster. Sorry, but you cannot change what is coming.
• Mid East countries, rich in Oil..will grow stronger. And start calling the shots. Strategic oil trade partnerships will decide a lot of which countries will propsper amongst the Non Aligned Countries.
• European Union will grow stronger. A great merger /sub-merger of nations will start to happen.
• Financial mergers on a STRATEGIC SCALE. Globally speaking.
• WAR. There is quite a possibilty that we will see World War 3. Sorry if I sound shocking, but that's Reality..
  

Think about World War 2 ..Did it have a specific date ? ? we all like to put a date...But,
When did it really start ? Food for thought indeed.

Sorry...but that's what I see in the Future - ESCALATION OF CONFLICTS..

I discovered my PERSONALITY TYPE, BTW - the ORACLE..
I wasn't exactly pleased, to be quite frank..being the ORACLE can be bit painful, you
see....IT IS NOT EASY TO "SEE" A GREAT WAR COMING...BUT THAT WILL BE THE REALITY YOU WILL ALL FACE..

Disclaimer : I keep changing my auto-forwarding list so often....sometimes in a hurry
forget revising the names...hope this doesn't reach the wrong person....hope you go through ALL my blogs 'n' enjoy the new look

"Industrial Capitalism" versus "Financial Capitalism"

Clearly, "Industrial Capitalism" is the backbone...that creates infrastructure, creates employment. Most importantly, it creates a "chain reaction" to create more industries.

Also, innovative and creative spirit has to be there behind this brand of capitalism.

Any economy that is making a transition from a "socialist model" should benefit mostly from the clean, efficient, planned implementation of this brand of capitalism.

"Financial capitalism" is speculative....recent developments showing the collapse of many stalwarts have led to panic. But still, it is necessary as the tool for raising/pumping in money into the industry.

Let us take 3 hypothetical industries : RAMO, SAMO and TAMO.

RAMO is on a high...
TAMO stocks are currently low...

Now, a shrewd investor, seeing TAMO's potential would buy it...Quite a few would...

This would result in much needed influx of capital into TAMO....which can increase productivity.

But the problem with "Financial Capitalism" is the fast-buck approach that has led to the collapse of the giants...sub-prime lending being amongst them....

Global Economic Meltdown...steps to rectify it

I had a talk with one of my friends, a top-notch banking official...who pointed out a very significant fact : the relative insularity of the Indian nationalized banks, and more importantly, the Indian economy. He was right in saying that "sudden mindless liberalization" has led in the past...to the collapse of some S.Asian economies. Indonesia is an example.

Yes, Indian markets are protected due to this factor..but there are other severe risks we run..like scarcity of oil production, rapid percentage of population growth (especially the younger generation that would be consuming at a higher rate)....but that is later. Ki Bolish re...boshe discuss korte hobe toder 3 jon'er saathe. Ar Gabon'er contact'tao dish to...(jader kache auto-forward korlam)

The Global Economic Meltdown is inevitable , unless these steps are taken :

1. Alternative Energy Sources are found. A huge chunk of money has to go into the R & D of this.
2. We all talk about individuals should learn to conserve oil...but in real life..ask yourself the question - how many do ? And can you check it ? So what must be done is a strict check should be put on the oil companies..their startegic mergers and demergers..so that the gasoline price comes down.
   
3. Sub-prime lending to dubious companies is not stopped.
4. Loan recovery has to be stringent.
   
5. Loans are given to publicize a bank. Let this publicity be curtailed. A person in need of loan is tempted by the glitzy advertisements...nowadays every second person I know has taken a humongous amount of loan...
6. A country's loan !!! How could the U.S. ignore stalwarts like Warren Buffet, Soros...their warnings..I wonder ?
7. War Economy will continue..it is inevitable..as far my prediction goes..so one should follow Japan's genius Macro-Economic Strategy of Forex and Bullion Reserve.
   

Brilliant pieces of writing....

I'm referring to Mr. Sankarshan Thakur's article in a Calcutta-based newspaper "The Telegraph"...

where he talks of a new horrifying phenomenon in India , aptly named Mobocracy.

Arre..oi office'e kotodin jaoa hoi nai..

I met Mr. Thakur once..I was on the opposite side of the table. Just exchanged a few words with him. He was real, real busy...while most of the others in the Office were gossiping. Your covering of the Kargil War was the best. Though I think Ms. Barkha Dutt gave you run for your money, huh ? Drass, Batalik or which sector ..I've forgotten. Tiger Hill'ka strategic capture I remember..

LOC' ka theory wrong hai..ji. Apun ka aisa hi lagta hai.

telegraph'e dui jon Pothik..arre Dada mone acche..junior tumi'o to gurudev. gondogol hoye jai. Aro kara kara jeno aache ?

Identity crisis hoye jacche mairi...

Statesman'eo jaoa hoi nai..koto kal..arre I.T. 'ke thik bhabe kaaje lagate parle hoye jeto.

Asian Age'e ar TOI 'te jeno kara kara ?

Ganashakti ar Bangla kagoj 'guloi jete hobe mone hochche..Eto jhamela..life heaven kore dilo property dispute.

Some facts that are pointers to the future....

Quoting Sheela Bhatt in New York City (source > rediff) :

"Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh will be meeting the Republican nominee for US presidency, Senator John McCain , on September 24 in New York. Significantly, Dr Singh will not be meeting the Democratic nominee for the President's post, Senator Barack Obama"

.........Acc to my calculations....next U.S. Prez would be John Mc Cain due to factors pointed out earlier....60% sure...

this is only further confirmation/ pointer.....

Disclaimer : I keep changing my auto-forwarding list so often....sometimes in a hurry forget revising the names...hope this doesn't reach the wrong person

Global Economic Meltdown ...how I saw it coming...and steps that can be taken

I have this nasty habit of striking up a conversation with bankers, banking professionals inside the banks.

Starting from juniors, the freshers to the top- the Branch Head, maybe.

I do it just FOR AN INTELLECTUAL EXERCISE - to understand where our / global economy is heading.

It always follows the same pattern : first the freshers start....they try to "sell" me a scheme..this scheme - it's good for you..on the "long run"...I always LISTEN. I'm a good listener, one of the best.

After 5-10 minutes, I start contradicting them.....start pointing out the flaws.

It's then that the horrifying facts come up....
MAINLY I HAVE GATHERED THESE FACTS FROM THE TOPMOST BRANCH MANAGERS..etcetera...I will always keep their identity secret.

The horrifying facts of

• THE CRUDE OIL PRICES FORCING THE BANKS TO LEND FAR,FAR,FAR ABOVE THEIR CREDIT LIMIT TO THE OIL COMPANIES....
• HOW INTEREST PRICES CANNOT BE RAISED..."THE BANKS MIGHT FAIL...if we don't raise the interest prices !!!" - one top-notch Banking Official said. I understand. But who will convey the complex message to the masses ?
  
• THE SUB-PRIME LENDING THAT THE BANKS DO....IT'S DIFFICULT TO UNDERSTAND A PERSON/COMPANY'S PAYING-BACK CAPABILITY
• THE NPA's (%-wise)
  
• HOW INFLATED THE STOCK MARKETS ARE...I ask them and get strange answers - the SCHEME/FUND/STOCKS THEY THEMSELVES WERE TRYING TO SELL...they DON'T HAVE IT IN THEIR PORTFOLIO ! THEIR OWN PERSONAL INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO !!

And so on and on......

But I believe there are some ways out of the GLOBAL ECONOMIC MELTDOWN.....THE WORST IS YET TO COME...ALL SAY...there will be UPSWINGS....but THE WORST IS YET TO COME....

Obviously . all those high-paid MBA's have failed...they are brilliant students...but THEY COULDN'T THINK OUT OF THE BOX !!!

That's why we are having this ECONOMIC SHAKE-UP....

...it's just the TIP OF THE ICEBERG...believe me....

Disclaimer : I keep changing my auto-forwarding list so often....sometimes in a hurry forget revising the names...hope this doesn't reach the wrong person....hope you go through all my blogs 'n' enjoy the new look

On the World's Cheapest Car and some Global Economic Predictions...

Tata Motors, producing the world's cheapest "revolutionary car"...harbinger of a paradigm shift...will come through. The dubious nature of the agitators first thoroughly confused the entire Indian industrial thinktank. It has now angered the whole Global Economic thinktank. One should read the global news....
The supply chain management of the vendors on a downstream level, dependent on this car is threatened. On a local to international level. THIS IS BECAUSE ALL THE VENDORS WERE RELYING ON HIGH VOLUME SALES WITH MINIMAL MARGINS. Small investors/vendors, who had invested on Tata Motors heavily, some even with their life's savings, are now jeopardized !
My prediction is...ultimately, the world's cheapest car will smoothly sail through, though this company has suffered huge financial losses due to the mindless disrupters.

U.S. Economy will be on a downswing. We all saw legendary Investment Giants suffer, starting with the collapse of Lehmann Brothers. Losses suffered by Morgan Stanley, AIG, Goldman Sachs and others.

However, my prediction is the next U.S. president will be John McCain...due to the Vice-Prez choice Ms. Palin factor + his own track record as a legendary war hero + being not partial towards any lobby.

GOP (Republican Party) coming to power + falling U.S. Economy = GREATER OUTSOURCING OPPORTUNITIES for countries like India. U.S. MNC's HAVE TO OUTSOURCE to stay afloat. One might even see some Eastern States of India steal the limelight by bagging "huge orders" if they contact the correct people, who knows ? Probably on the ITES and KPO sector.

Japan has a "trick up its sleeve". It had the world's largest Gold and $/Euro Reserve. Since the 2 parameters have an inverse ration...I predict, this country will start economic recovery. Very clever strategy, not to speak of their strategic overseas real estate holdings.

Chinese economy will start a downswing...this is my prediction (though only 1% would agree with me)...due to it's being too much controlled by very few people.

Russian economy will do good since it has had strategic partnerships vis a vis OPEC countries + other deals.

European economy will flourish the most....this is purely due to the internal trading between the EU countries. And the wonderful unity that one sees between separate countries. Unbelievable. One has to study the Euro currency versus all other major currencies....some say the "Oracle of Omaha" W.Buffet has traded all his currencies to bank on the Euro !

On Globalization and Ratan Tata...a Most Misunderstood Man

First some Reality Check points :

• Globalization is Reality. It means greater challenges thrown to Emerging Markets.
• Tatas were the FIRST Global Indian Industrialists.
• Global Markets are intensively INTERLINKED. The FAILURE of Tata's pet projects would have devastating effects on the Global Economy.
• Failure of projects would mean a CASCADING EFFECT...the entire Supply Chain of vendors are affected. On a local, national to international level.

Let me quote Mr. Ratan Tata On risk:" Risk is a necessary part of business philosophy. You can be risk-averse and take no risks, in which case you will have a certain trajectory in terms of your growth. Or you can, while being prudent,take greater risk in order to grow faster."

What can I say ? He had a Dream : The World's cheapest Car...a Rupee 1 Lac Car ...US$ 2,200 ...A Car for the Common Man. A person riding a mobike can afford that Car. Through easy monthly installments, of course.

BUT HIS DREAM WAS MISUNDERSTOOD...
Dream to be transformed to Reality means implementation. But right now, we see
DISRUPTIVE activities WITH A CERTAIN OBJECTIVE standing in the way of his dream.

The Tatas have always also shown their philanthropic aspect also...

Global Economy has benefitted from his previous projects...be it the Steel Industry, I.T. Consultancy, Internet infrastructure, All his Projects were aimed at INFRASTRUCTURE building of a country.

The Wall Street Journal quotes today: "The escalating conflict is the starkest sign
yet of how rapid industrialisation is clashing with skepticism towards
modernisation and the reach of big business into rural India."

Rural Economy would have benefitted, with the Supply Chain and the cascading effect of ancilliary units.

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS ALARMED at such activities.

Disclaimer : I keep changing my auto-forwarding list...one can read all my blogs ..my lightning strike video on greenblueplanet and others

Cell Phone Fixation in India and Broadband scenario

We Indians seem to follow a "mass psychology" trend.....one example is the very low percentage of broadband users compared to the cell phone...which almost every kid 'round the block has...and educates me a thing or two about....

Found this article ..Quoting from Source : The Financial Express written by the Corporate Bureau :

"India may have emerged as the fastest growing telecom market in the world, however, in terms of Internet access and broadband numbers, the country has some major catching up to do. With almost close-to-zero broadband penetration, India is far behind most economies of the Asia-Pacific region. On the other hand, the region is the world's largest broadband market with a 39% share globally."

My take : The Asian Tigers, especially the Pacific Rim countries....show tremendous growth ! This will lead to further boost in their economy.

"While some Asia-Pacific economies are world leaders in information and communication technologies (ICT) where broadband access is ultra-high speedy, affordable and close to ubiquitous, in most of the region's poorer countries, Internet access is limited and low-speed according to ITU's Asia-Pacific Telecommunication and ICT Indicators report.

India and China make up for a quarter of the world's total mobile subscribers with over 600 and 280 million mobile cellular subscribers, respectively. However, India still has to debut in mobile broadband. Same is the case with China, which recently overtook the US with 253 million Internet users (according to China Internet Network Information Center)."

? : What's Ms. Rebecca MacKinnon's number - about the 253 million ? the "Great Firewall"...does it allow 253 mn? check out her blog in Rconversation...go find it...very interesting stuff in there

"The Asia Pacific region as a whole is home to almost half the world's fixed telephone subscribers. It has 42% of the world's Internet users, and with 1.4 billion mobile cellular subscribers, it also has the largest mobile phone market. In terms of ICTs, the report pegs Asia-Pacific as a region of superlatives with the region being the leader in broadband numbers too. However, there is a wide chasm between the economies of the region when it comes to Internet access especially in terms of speed.

In some of the rich economies of the region, one in four persons is a broadband subscriber while in most of the region's low and lower-middle income economies, high-speed Internet access is limited to urban areas at best, typically expensive, and often not available at all. India numbers too paint a sorry picture. The country has close to 50 million Internet users while its number of broadband users is abysmally low at 4.5 million"

? : 4.5 million......that is really pathetic. I guess people spend more on cellphone and accesories than on their broadband....I don't blame the broadband operators...

"Compare that with countries like Hong Kong (China) and Japan, and operators there have launched one-Gigabits per second (Gbps) broadband and triple-play services aimed at the residential market which include Internet telephony and television. These high-income economies are also leaders in terms of third generation (3G) mobile cellular deployment.

But, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. With the recent change in government policies on 3G and Internet telephony things have started looking up for the country. While 3G is expected to roll-out by next year, the decks have also been cleared for Internet telephony."

My take : As long as rural communites don't realize the advantages of the Net vis a vis trading, information exchange of rural economy related matters.....%age of broadband penetration may still be low...I think some people took entrepreneurial steps in that direction in rural India.

Innovative Technology

Was just trying out the Google Map Maker....

Seems like I.T. is heading for a PARADIGM SHIFT from Programming to :

Viewing the Global Information as a

NETWORKED, CREATIVE RDBMS (Relational Database Management System)

Techno Finance Gurus of India

It's a sad thing we forget our own people who contributed so much to the Growth of the current Indian Economy. But, good to so...their work lasts on the Net. Scouring the Net brings us lot of info about their pioneering work.

This was done on a Techno Financial Front.....by many :

• Dewang Mehta .....without whom I wouldn't have been able to write this blog, perhaps. He was the pioneer who was campaigning for BROADBAND HI-SPEED INTERNET as top priority for India. His slogan was ...India needs "Roti, kapda aur Broadband" ....nobody believed him when he started campaigning. Hats off to you...Late Mr. D. Mehta. He died early....what he could have given to this country had he been alive today.
• Sam Pitroda....he ushered in Modern day Telecommunications....Interesting to see those tech-savvy(?) teenagers to 40 year-olds, even...brandishing their myriad gadgets...unable to remember him. A lot of people opposed him....saying personal computers were bad for the Indian economy !
  
• Dr. Manmohan Singh....he was never a politician. India has forgotten that he saved Indian Economy from the brink of Total Bankruptcy. Now, many people have different opinions about him. But I'm sure History will write the right words about him 100 years from now.

All these people were not politicians... used by them..but were instrumental in powering India to what it is TODAY.

These visionaries were what I'd call :

Techno Financial Gurus of India

The Russian Threat...Ukraine factor....frightening

I am really surprised at how and why the West was caught napping.

I heard a TV news broadcaster in a reputed channel saying that Ukraine may be at threat. Now, that is very,very,very serious.

Georgia has a population of I guess....7-8 million and area-wise 27,000 square miles.
But Ukraine's population is 52 million ! Area 233,000 square miles !

Ukraine had a split mandate as far as I can recollect vis a vis its relation with Russia.

The Russian tanks stormed rapidly into Georgia, though how they crossed the Caucases I dunno...some passes maybe. But they should have been heavily guarded.

My hunch is it's a fight for Oil or Strategic Positioning. Or that Georgia wants to join NATO so Russians move into Southern Ossetia.

But what about Ukraine ?

• I heard the Black Sea Fleet is mobilized. That's a very large sub-unit of the Russian Navy. An amphibious assault from the South into Ukraine via the Black Sea Coast.
• Combined with the Russian cocktail of Tank + Armored Vehicle + Infantry attack (one should study the Cold War history & WW2 to see how effective it is, IMHO...numero uno) will be.....

DISASTROUS....to say the least.

BTW, I'm just a neutral blogger examining the possibilities.....
But, one interesting thing is : If one can keep one's mind totally neutral.....it's difficult, believe me, and inputs the various parameters....one could have seen this coming.

Though I don't think Ukraine is currently at risk.

PREDICTION COMING TRUE vis a vis Rise of Russia

Do see my posting on 3rd June, '08....and some others roundabout that time, I guess.

Russian forces have crossed into Georgia, Southern Ossetia. IMHO, Russians are the masters of the game when it comes to Ground Offensive combo of Tanks + Armored Vehicles + Infantry + Artillery ....and more.

Almost "Shock and Awe" or Blitzkrieg...call it whatever you may.

The capital of Southern Ossetia has fallen. Casualties 1500...officially.

The country of Georgia is under threat itself.

What is it for ? Oil, natural resources...one may never know. But as a layman, one can only guess.

Who's next ? Ukraine, Belarus, Latvia, Estonia. I don't think Ukraine, because it's quite formidable.

But this is SCARY....the Masters of Retreat and Attack, of Strategy & Tactics ...have applied their Logistics with respect to Ground Frontal Offensive and gobbled up a part of Georgia !

Is it ready ???? The European Missile Defense Shield....I mean.

OIL SCARCITY Cause...a Lesser Known Fact..and How to Make Money

We, as consumers of Oil, are worried about the end-prices of the gasoline/petrol.

But here's a lesser known chilling factor ..... LESSER & LESSER OIL RESERVES THAT CAN BE PROFITABLY UTILIZED ARE BEING DISCOVERED !

Check out the bar graph from hubbertpeak.com (Dr. Campbell's, I believe?) :

My take : We are on borrowed time vis a vis crude oil....it's all past discoveries. (gray shaded bars)

White shaded bars are future discoveries that have yet to be extracted.....we know the reservoirs there based on S.P., Resistivity, gamma and other geophysical logs. But, it's still to be run to production.

But, since it is only natural human psychology to only think in terms of 5 to 10 years, at the max., lot of specialists think it's over........

THE GLOBAL OIL CRISIS HAS JUST STARTED....yeah, it will be eased, just like crude oil's dropping $/barrel -wise ....but it's just a temporary respite 'cuz a few OPEC countries, led by the Saudis are revving up the oil production.

But within 5 years......DEMAND WILL FAR OUTREACH SUPPLY.

But, here's a silver lining behind every cloud :

Petro-stocks/funds, etc will be SWINGING WILDLY, one can make money buying & selling on a short-term basis.
IF THEY KNOW THE RESERVOIR POTENTIAL THE COMPANY HAS BOUGHT ;-)

Historic Blunder made with regard to a Deal

Currently, I've gotten into this habit of talking in riddles, so here goes :

No...I'm not opposing the deal itself. As it might be of strategic interest vis a vis India's N.E. 15,000 feet + A.P. border areas taking into account certain strategic placements of certain...
probably adding more 50 would have made a difference.

But what has ANGERED 95% of neutral Indians is the way in which it was achieved. And which has been revealed clearly by the media, for after all we are a democracy.
Which raises doubts as to does this foreign power wants us to totally remain within their control and hence a weak country? How much right do we really have to exercise our own free will in case there A.P. is threatened, not just the regular infiltrations that are occurring every day.

The same foreign policy mistake has been done by this foreign power vis a vis the following countries which it did not trust :

• Japan......a stronger Japan would have meant a bulwark against China & N. Korea.
• France, Germany & other European countries.....which would have served as a bulwark against an Eastern Socialist country that is now rapidly growing in power. There would have been no need of a Missile Defense Shield at all.
• A few of its southern neighbours.....now some real totalitarian regimes seem to be cropping up real fast.

" A bogeyman thought of a thousand times becomes the truth"...adapted from somebody else's quote.

Hope that doesn't become the case with this country now grappling with an Oil Crisis...

...or lack of intelligent foreign policy makers, shall I say.

OIL PRICE ESCALATION AMID CONFLICTS IN OIL RESERVE ZONES

Last posting, pointed out that 62% of Oil Reserves fall within SEVERE CONFLICT ZONES.

Now, juxtapose that with the "Hubbert Peak for World Oil" a theory propounded in the 1950s by Dr. M. King Hubbert is a Theory now widely accepted last few principles being :
1.Oil Production rises to a peak which can never be surpassed;
2. Once the peak has been passed, production declines until the resource is depleted.

I believe, we are extremely near the peak.

Of course, there WILL BE TEMPORARY SPURTS IN OIL PRODUCTION WITH DISCOVERY / PROFITABLE EXTRACTION OF OIL FROM RESERVES....

Note : Canada & other countries do have large oil reserves, but they are NOT PROFITABLY EXTRACTABLE.

Check out this graph from source : hubbertpeak.com




Note that negative figures mean NO OIL can be PROFITABLY EXTRACTED.
Positive figures = show number of years that oil can be PROFITABLY EXTRACTED.

Well, the graph, that's by Dr. Campbell, a geologist, shows an even grimer picture, doesn't it ?

I'd say, even 90% of the WORLD'S OIL RESERVES WHICH CAN BE PROFITABLY EXTRACTED FALLS WITHIN SEVERE CONFLICT ZONES.

Conflict zones where the majority of people are fluent with Avtomat Kalashnikova 47 & its variants , as also Katyushka ( Russian sense o' humour, I say) rockets...as say a Bengali is with fluently juggling deals with "real estate developers"....or a Marwari kid with day trading...or a young kibbutznik to infiltrate behind the opposite lines.

I say, this portends a SEVERE CRISIS !

....unless macro-managed, THE ESCALATIONS WILL RISE.

RESULTING IN STEEPER CRUDE OIL PRICES , "OIL SHOCK" and of course, the resultant CHAIN-REACTIONS >>> inflation, economy collapse for a few countries ( 10% at least).

This is because, when demand even for a temporary very short period exceeds supply, the market PANICS.

Message for all the auto e-mail receivers : BTW, I keep on changing / adding my auto
email postings as per my blogs, do it in a hurry. I got some 100+ on my list of all hues
and colors... including the White House, some senators to even quite a few socialists.
For example, my apologies if this reaches Feroz, and he gets annoyed for some reason...do e-mail me to let know which blogs auto-posting you would like to receive or not receive. For example, Feroz, you might want to receive getricheasily.blogspot.com but not this, do let me know. Cool, man, Take it easy....

OIL SCARCITY & GEOPOLITICAL CONSEQUENCES

I was scouring the Net for almost an hour to find an image like this....maybe I was searching in the wrong places, because it doesn't generally take this much time.

Source of this image : Oil and Gas Journal...found it on the Net.



Any way, a picture tells a thousand words, as they say.

A careful analysis of this pic tells a chilling story :

• In this globe of almost 200+ nations, the top 20 countries hold 95% of the world's oil.
• Corollary : If, even 10 of them form a strategic partnership, they can hold the whole world AT RANSOM. Very chilling, indeed.
• SEVERE CONFLICT ZONES hold 62 % of the world's oil !!! I did the maths...add up Saudi Arabia + Kuwait + Iraq + Iran + UAE + Qatar + Libya + Nigeria (do check the news, please) =799 billion barrels. THAT IS = (799/1292) x 100 = 62 %. (Maybe I dropped 1 or 2 billionbarrels somewhere, go find it...am not responsible for the consequences ;-)
• Corollary : 62% in 8 countries that are SEVERE CONFLICT ZONES where nobody is winning. This means from "mass psychology" - intensification of conflict. This will INCREASE OIL PRICES like anything.
• Europe holds almost no oil ! Though the European Union's GDP is now about 2 to even 3 times that of the richest nation, U.S.A. I project their moneypower + unity might helpthem, this based on some calculations I did which are still inside my head -)
• U.S. consumes 25% of the world's oil. But they hold just 2% of the world's oil. But I notice their population is increasing at a fast rate, thanks to rapid rate of immigrationand population growth. I think the country is headed for a big problem. Well quitefrankly, I don't have an answer for their problems. And even if I did, shouldn't I be paid $$million$$ for that ;-)
• The projected #2 and #3 greatest oil-consuming nations in the years to come, that is India and China have insufficient oil vis a vis their demands. Severe inflation will hit these 2. Though there may be temporary let ups.
  

But, in these uncertain times, only a handful of people who can gauge the WILD UPS AND DOWNS of the market will MAKE A HUGE AMOUNT OF MONEY. (no peace of mind for them,though).

This is fact, dunno if it's good or bad. I'm just a neutral analyst, BTW.

GLOBAL ECONOMY REVIVAL SOLUTION...Problems & Solutions

1 Single Economic Problem can be solved most successfully by a Specialist.

Multiple Economic Problems, inter-connected, factors that have to be considered(economic,global security,geopolitical,"mass psychology",national considerations) can only be solved by a Generalist. Reason: A Specialist has a 1-track mind, a Generalist keeps his mind open.

Here are the PROBLEMS of the Global Economy right now...and in the persisting future. WARNING : Problems will sometimes seem to disappear, but only TEMPORARILY :

• Crude Oil is $140 / barrel. My prediction of it touching $200 / barrel (made in January 2008) now seems to be an accepted fact arrived after much calculations by the world's leading economists with Ph.D.'s, MBA's & what not under their belt.
• $140/barrel to upwards to $200/barrel will cause severe . The Money has to come from somewhere - where from ? The Banks, the Reserves, the Gold, Forex.
• Deficit.....$ trillion deficits by many countries....Apply Common sense. You owe the bank lotta money, the collector's gonna come some day, ain't it ? The deficit & amount owed by certain countries is mind-boggling....obviously the big manufacturers will stop having confidence in selling their stuff to these countries.
• Deficit Corollary. The relative devaluation of certain currencies will cause investors to flee certain markets....the stock markets will plunge drastically.
• Stock Markets Over-valued. This is especially true with respect to some developing countries where Foreign Investors (Institutional or Direct or otherwise) come flocking, make a "fast buck", buy/sell within months, and disappear to some other green pastures. Their own citizens are most to blame, buying and selling in hordes. These countries' stocks are highly over-valued. Obviously, they'll crash. Some have now crashed to realistic levels.

I've run out of time...could carry on & on.

So let me offer hasty SOLUTIONS :

• Deficit should be cut down at all costs. Increase tax. Encourage small businesses, instead of just appeasing the big monopolistic ones. This is especially applicable to developing countries.
• Oil rationing should be made part of a nation's policy. A radical thought, but any other short-term solution ?
• Developing nations' oil/gas companies should be privatized. To cut down on unnecessary costs.
• Human population Control.....In many sense, this is the numero uno problem.
• Over-reliance on specialists should be stopped IMMEDIATELY. Entrepreneurs, businessmen and even a few Under Grads might be able to offer "out of the box" solutions.

IN CASE THE DEVELOPED NATIONS FORGET....this was the way they became RICH NATIONS. U.S.A., European Countries, Asian Tigers took the lead not through a structured system.

But how do you recruit for part-time/freelance these generalists?

Very easy....let the countries' authorities apply Open Source Intelligence or OSINT , commercial I mean...(readers who don't know the meaning can search extensively via Google Search)

Gold price exponential rise post 9/11....get it before it's too late

Well, folks....one only has to look at the Gold Price (U.S.$ / ounce) post - 9/11 to arrive at certain conclusions.

Image source of graph is kitco.com :

My take :

The price covers a time range from 1975 - 2008 ...i.e. 33 years . I see a humongous peak round 'bout 80....time span is relatively moderate.

But check out how gold price is climbing steadily post- 9/11 !
In fact, the spike started from 1978....about the time when there was the OPEC First Oil Crisis, I guess......

But, remember, that was a relatively peaceful time....

The climb post December 2001....goes on and on and on....

PLUS......THIS IS IN DIRECT CORRELATION WITH THE ESCALATING GLOBAL TENSIONS.

But, then...the IMPORTANT QUESTION IS : how far has it climbed - % wise ?

If you look at the %wise climb ......I believe, one can STILL BUY GOLD.....

Wait till 5 years till the world is a bit calmer.....& SELL.....

Escalating Conflicts that will drive up Oil Prices

Besides Iraq, Iran & Afghanistan...there are some other conflicts/situations that will drive up oil prices:

• Escalating Nigeria conflict between Northern & Southern parts.
• Iran Pipeline thru' Afghanistan to India & beyond in jeopardy as the entire stretch is conflict-bound.
• Yemen Islamic fundamentalists & Qaeda elements infiltrating Saudi Arabia.
• Russian oil pipelines under threat from Chechen militants.
• Turkish infiltration into oil-rich Kurdistan
• Central Asian countries' destabilization due to Turkish ambitions and over-ambitious oil companies.
• Kuwait oilfields under the shadow of the Shia Crescent rising in power.
• Same applies for the smaller countries of the Mid-East

Global Conflicts cause Rising Oil Prices that Trigger Inflation Hike

Global conflicts ...some new fronts might open up : such is the worry in the market.

A few such are : A massive Israeli military exercise and some remarks that point to a possibility of a confrontation with Iran. This is speculation...but if it happens it will have massive impact on oil prices.....MASSIVE. reason is 40% of the world's oil passes through the narrow Gulf of Hormuz off Iran. This is an extremely strategic area.

A conflict in Iran might mean shutdown of oil from Iran as well as Iraq as all the oil has to pass through this.

Recent attacks in oil-rich Nigeria......these are hit and run operations from speedboats.

The ongoing Iraq & Mid East Crisis. Pipelines are easy targets and there is no cheaper alternative to it.

Oil Prices are hence on the boil.

Leading to massive global inflation.

My crude oil price predictions coming true

Do see my earlier posts when I predicted crude oil CAN EVEN TOUCH $200 / BARREL by 2008 end !

People were skeptical...I guess they are not now. Oil's touching $ 140 / barrel . It was $ 65 / barrel last June.

Check out Graph source is from www.wtrg.com ....





So.....what does it imply ?


Massive inflation rate globally.

Countries that are not able to manage macro-economic factors, falling into debts.....will have to repay it sometime....and in

the process suffer severe losses.

I would bet the European Union would DO STRONGLY ON A LONG-TERM BASIS.

If you are a global investor, buy blue-chip European Stocks.
Developing countries' blue chip stocks buy after serious research.

Wasn't Nostradamus a poor feller like me ? Heck, who cares ?

Predictions come true again - Indian Stocks nosediving

Check out my last post....when I said the Indian stocks are way over-inflated.

Well, as I write....the Sensex (Indian equivalent of the Dow Jones) has nosedived below 15,000. Check out the graph I gave last post...... It's elementary to note from such a sharp steep peak.

Well, here's the quantitative analysis :

• Crude oil prices sky rocketting, now it'll breach $140 / barrel
• US subprime lending problem
• Global credit crunch
• Inside India...rising inflation rates
• Slowdown in domestic industrial production numbers
• Middle East Crisis may deepen with Iran flexing up its ante
• High inflation rates, ACTUALLY double digit (real rate, that is....it doesn't take a genious to figure out it's double digit already if one goes to the market)
• slowdown in GDP has been reported
• corporate earnings have fallen in many key sector year-to-year basis
• Foreign investors are fleeing the market. Problem with most Indians is that they have very little confidence in their own stock markets.....whenever they see FIIs fleeing, they start dumping their own stuff. This is a crying shame.
• Another big factor is - Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh 's hands are tied. He saved India from ruins way back. But now, political compulsions have forced him NOT TO TAKE BOLD STEPS........this may be the SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR TO THE INDIAN STOCK MARKET TAKING EVEN MORE HEAVY BLOWS.

But I think the good news is:

The lowest level the SENSEX will go down is to 12,000. I've come to this figure inputting all the factors cumulatively. This is THE REALISTIC FIGURE.

In fact, even now, one can buy into some blue chip stocks.
As also steel, I.T. (those which depend heavily on offshore projects), pharma, banks, cement.

U.S. Stocks (DJIA) versus Indian Stocks(Sensex) .....graph analysis

I'm comparing this graph (Graph source: yahoo.com) Indian Stocks (Sensex) versus the U.S. Stocks (Dow Jones Industrial Average).

Red line = DJIA

Blue Line = Sensex

Note that the graph is a linear one, not logarithmic.

Well, I find something fishy over here.

Sure, the Indian economy IS GROWING at a fast paced, blistering rate. The U.S. economy is slowing down.

But is the DIFFERENCE so great ????

And this is a percentage % increase graph.......so that's why I think the Indian stocks are quite ..................
OVER-VALUED.

Note the extremely SHARP RISE OF THE GRAPH AFTER 2005 !

Just too steep a gradient. Beats me......

Rise of Russia .....within the next 10 years

Last posting...I predicted the Fall of the Chinese economy. I hurt a few of my friends who happened to be socialists in this part of India....waaaah, waaaah...so sorrrrry.

And, this is for Alana del Valle Israel, who I thought was from Israel, but who turned out to be from Phillipines, actually in the U.S., but dating an Indian. Globalization 101 (practical lab) for me.

But you see, my dear readers, I only write from an OBJECTIVE, NEUTRAL point of view.

So, here's my prediction as to WHY Russia will rise again. Quantitatively, here are the points :

• Russian Military & Defense Strategies. They are one of the best in the world, IMHO. Historically, Russians have proven to be masters at this. Flashback the Great Russian Retreat from the forces of Napolean and the unthinkable crushing of Napoleon's mighty forces. This was the beginning of Napoleon's downfall. Cut back also to World War 2. Russian Retreat straight back uptil Stalingrad. The Battle of Stalingrad. The Germans never recovered from this. This was the beginning of Hitler's downfall.
• Russians still have the largest number of nuclear warheads, I believe. 17,000...as against 10,000+ of the U.S. Though the accuracy of these nukes are bad.
• AK47 (Atomotav Kalashnikova) was designed by Mikhail Kalashnikov while he was in a hospital bed. I blame it on the nurses, I tell ya...had they paid proper attention, this mischievous, most innocent looking genious wouldn't have gone about making such stuff. The design was so flawless that it has stood the test of time. 60+ years.......think 'bout it. So, They posess one of the best brainpower. Their mathematical ability is acknowledged as one of the best. Apply that brainpower to warfare and you have a deadly cocktail.
• ECONOMY. Russia has had enough flow of capital into its system. It has huge reserves of basic stuff, like oil, ores, etc.
• Oil. Russian has struck extremely clever strategic partnerships with Venezuela and other countries, and has not angered the Middle East OPEC countries. It can later utilize this.
• Politically, I really don't want to comment much.....but at least compared to China, there was no vast disparity between the urban rich and the rural poor during the time of the Soviets.
• Middle tier and small businessmen could flourish in Russia.....if this is allowed, economic backbone will remain strong.
  

Russia does have quite a lot of negatives like suppression of civil liberties and stuff like that, which I stronly disagree with. But then, this is just an objective analysis.

...........To Russia with love

CHINESE ECONOMY WILL COLLAPSE WITHIN 5 YEARS

My words have come true in the past...check out last post when I PREDICTED oil prices will rise.....it rose sharply to $112 / barrel.

But then, it is for history to judge the veracity of the statement I just made.

The main reason might be a QUALITATIVE ONE...maybe since just a few policymakers cannot control the economy of 25% of the world's population....maybe the system put too much pressure on the inhabitants of the mountains and plateaus of China, that make up more than two-thirds of its geographical area....maybe something far, far more fundamental.

But then, here's the QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS :

1. Such a vast economy just CANNOT BE CONTROLLED by a handful of people. It needs a huge number of economists. Who have to have freedom. Freedom to collect neutral data, statistically analyse them neutrally, publish their findings neutrally. DEMOCRACY is needed to make the right decisions on the basis of their findings.
2. Massive disparity between the urban and the rural in China. The Chinese urban rich people live in plush apartments, enjoying lifestyles that are the envy of even middle class people of developed countries. The rural poor are forced to work in coal mines just to have two square meals a day. Thousands die in a year from coal mine collapses. Bloggers, check the Net for correct figures.
3. Environmental degradation of the WORST KIND has occured in China, thanks to human greed. Thsi has resulted in collapse of eco-systems, collapse of rural economies, collapse of rural cultures.
4. Uprising. In the Plateaus of Tibet (Xizang Province) they started. It has spread like wildfire. To parts of Sinkiang (Xinjiang Uygur) ethnic Tibetan groups and even Qinghai province. In exasperation, even the most non-violent, ever-smiling Dalai Lama has been attacked. Dalai Lama....IMHO, one of the most wise man on earth today. And the uprising has spread, and spreading......My friend Tsen Hsu once said, "One day, A wind shall come down from the mountains of China, my friends. That will sweep away the greed of the plains people of China, who control the country."
5. Oil. The fastest growing Chinese economy needs a vast amount of petroleum. Its foreign policy is so rigid that it will cease to get oil at the right prices from the OPEC countries.
6. Islamic fundamentalists are growing in power in Eastern Turkestan part of Sinkiang (Xinjiang Uygur), infiltration from Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan Northern Areas and Afghanistan follows. This will be a MAJOR threat to the Chinese.
7. Massive military spending for developing Missile Defense System, ICBMs, IRBMs and conventional weapons will put strain on the economy.
8. Cheap "artificially controlled" prices of Chinese goods. As capitalism comes into China, the demand and supply chain will result in prices suddenly spiralling out of control.
9. China's stock markets are globally linked nowadays. How can you insulate it, how long can a handful of people insulate it from the GLOBAL CAUSES AND RESULTS ??? Tha markets will collapse.
10. The rural economy is already COLLAPSING.

End- Result : Massive collapse of the TIGHTLY-CONTROLLED, TWO-SYSTEM ECONOMY OF CHINA. Not a mere recession...not even an economic depression....but a total collapse.

BTW, a trillion $ question : how come the Dalai Lama never stops smiling -)

Oil prices might rise from today's $98 / barrel soon

This is immediately attributable to the fact that Turkey's troops have crossed into Iraq's Kurdistan. Kurdistan is oil-rich.

More than that it has high oil potential reserves. Are they after Iraq's Kurd-dominated Mossul, Kirkuk oilfields ?

Factor in also the Iranian unrest.

Escalating demand expectation from India after launch of world's cheapest car.

Venezuela - Russian agreement.

And, as I said earlier.....realization sinking in that the Earth is running out of oil that can be extracted profitably.

My global friends might start buying oil even at this price -)

Asian Stocks Slump.....are the fears justified ?

Today, we saw a meltdown of all the Asian Stock Markets......I was especially surprised at the Nikkei registering its sharpest fall since 9/11.

Are things really that bad ? I don't think so....

The U.S. economy might tend towards a recession, based on which assumption there was a reduction in the funds rate from 4.25 to 3.5 percent, that is 75 basis points. This, BTW, marked the greatest funds rate since 1990.

But then, such a move was aimed two-fold :

1. To prevent a recession
2. To prevent a panic global stock sell-off.

It might cause the opposite !

Because, the greatest rate cut in 18 years , AMIDST ALL THIS TALK OF RECESSION IN 3-4 COUNTRIES, would unnerve all.
Result: More and more people would sell off.
Leading to, of course.....more stocks slumping.

If outsourcing is ended, U.S. Economy might hit deep recession

It is the Era of Globalization.

One has to accept that developing countries would be exporting at much lesser prices, much lesser than the Euro or the U.S. $. price tag, be it on textiles or be it cars.

But then, at the same time, to stay afloat / make more profit, developed countries' companies have resorted to "outsourcing"......this is NECESSARY.......as it doesn't take much for a rival company to beat you....it can steal the thunder in 2 quarters.....

It is the "outsourcing" which has kept the U.S. economy afloat.

Let's take a look at the stock charts for the last 5 years
Image source: finance.yahoo.com
If we look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the last 5 years,

the profit percentage is much lesser than the Indian stock market.......it is apparent from the "COMPARATIVE STEEPNESS" of the 2 curves. The Indian stock markets had a far greater higher RETURN.

Even if you look at the 5 year chart (Image source : finance.yahoo.com ) of Singapore Straits, it shows a steady rise.......




Which is why, U.S. global investors are pouring in funds into Emerging Markets.

Again, one has to keep in mind, that the U.S. economy is doing this well primarily due to outsourcing.

If the Democrats come to power, and put an end to outsourcing.....rival European companies would start "outsourcing" to developing countries........and even some U.S. companies would find a way around to beat the others.