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Tuesday, July 22, 2008

OIL PRICE ESCALATION AMID CONFLICTS IN OIL RESERVE ZONES

Last posting, pointed out that 62% of Oil Reserves fall within SEVERE CONFLICT ZONES.

Now, juxtapose that with the "Hubbert Peak for World Oil" a theory propounded in the 1950s by Dr. M. King Hubbert is a Theory now widely accepted last few principles being :
1.Oil Production rises to a peak which can never be surpassed;
2. Once the peak has been passed, production declines until the resource is depleted.

I believe, we are extremely near the peak.

Of course, there WILL BE TEMPORARY SPURTS IN OIL PRODUCTION WITH DISCOVERY / PROFITABLE EXTRACTION OF OIL FROM RESERVES....

Note : Canada & other countries do have large oil reserves, but they are NOT PROFITABLY EXTRACTABLE.

Check out this graph from source : hubbertpeak.com




Note that negative figures mean NO OIL can be PROFITABLY EXTRACTED.
Positive figures = show number of years that oil can be PROFITABLY EXTRACTED.

Well, the graph, that's by Dr. Campbell, a geologist, shows an even grimer picture, doesn't it ?

I'd say, even 90% of the WORLD'S OIL RESERVES WHICH CAN BE PROFITABLY EXTRACTED FALLS WITHIN SEVERE CONFLICT ZONES.

Conflict zones where the majority of people are fluent with Avtomat Kalashnikova 47 & its variants , as also Katyushka ( Russian sense o' humour, I say) rockets...as say a Bengali is with fluently juggling deals with "real estate developers"....or a Marwari kid with day trading...or a young kibbutznik to infiltrate behind the opposite lines.

I say, this portends a SEVERE CRISIS !

....unless macro-managed, THE ESCALATIONS WILL RISE.

RESULTING IN STEEPER CRUDE OIL PRICES , "OIL SHOCK" and of course, the resultant CHAIN-REACTIONS >>> inflation, economy collapse for a few countries ( 10% at least).

This is because, when demand even for a temporary very short period exceeds supply, the market PANICS.

Message for all the auto e-mail receivers : BTW, I keep on changing / adding my auto
email postings as per my blogs, do it in a hurry. I got some 100+ on my list of all hues
and colors... including the White House, some senators to even quite a few socialists.
For example, my apologies if this reaches Feroz, and he gets annoyed for some reason...do e-mail me to let know which blogs auto-posting you would like to receive or not receive. For example, Feroz, you might want to receive getricheasily.blogspot.com but not this, do let me know. Cool, man, Take it easy....

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