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Tuesday, July 15, 2008

OIL SCARCITY & GEOPOLITICAL CONSEQUENCES

I was scouring the Net for almost an hour to find an image like this....maybe I was searching in the wrong places, because it doesn't generally take this much time.

Source of this image : Oil and Gas Journal...found it on the Net.



Any way, a picture tells a thousand words, as they say.

A careful analysis of this pic tells a chilling story :

  • In this globe of almost 200+ nations, the top 20 countries hold 95% of the world's oil.
  • Corollary : If, even 10 of them form a strategic partnership, they can hold the whole world AT RANSOM. Very chilling, indeed.
  • SEVERE CONFLICT ZONES hold 62 % of the world's oil !!! I did the maths...add up Saudi Arabia + Kuwait + Iraq + Iran + UAE + Qatar + Libya + Nigeria (do check the news, please) =799 billion barrels. THAT IS = (799/1292) x 100 = 62 %. (Maybe I dropped 1 or 2 billionbarrels somewhere, go find it...am not responsible for the consequences ;-)
  • Corollary : 62% in 8 countries that are SEVERE CONFLICT ZONES where nobody is winning. This means from "mass psychology" - intensification of conflict. This will INCREASE OIL PRICES like anything.
  • Europe holds almost no oil ! Though the European Union's GDP is now about 2 to even 3 times that of the richest nation, U.S.A. I project their moneypower + unity might helpthem, this based on some calculations I did which are still inside my head -)
  • U.S. consumes 25% of the world's oil. But they hold just 2% of the world's oil. But I notice their population is increasing at a fast rate, thanks to rapid rate of immigrationand population growth. I think the country is headed for a big problem. Well quitefrankly, I don't have an answer for their problems. And even if I did, shouldn't I be paid $$million$$ for that ;-)
  • The projected #2 and #3 greatest oil-consuming nations in the years to come, that is India and China have insufficient oil vis a vis their demands. Severe inflation will hit these 2. Though there may be temporary let ups.

But, in these uncertain times, only a handful of people who can gauge the WILD UPS AND DOWNS of the market will MAKE A HUGE AMOUNT OF MONEY. (no peace of mind for them,though).

This is fact, dunno if it's good or bad.
I'm just a neutral analyst, BTW.

3 comments:

student loans said...

Can you add some more photos?


student loans

D. Dutta-Roy said...

Yeah..will add soon. Am interested. Searching for pie charts,other types of charts related to : PROJECTED OIL PRODUCTION PER COUNTRY in future years to come, "Peak Oil Graphs" , etc...

These charts are helpful for implementation of foreign policy for all countries.

Anonymous said...

What is projaction for Europe? What make you say EU can face not crisis

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