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Saturday, July 26, 2008

OIL SCARCITY Cause...a Lesser Known Fact..and How to Make Money

We, as consumers of Oil, are worried about the end-prices of the gasoline/petrol.

But here's a lesser known chilling factor ..... LESSER & LESSER OIL RESERVES THAT CAN BE PROFITABLY UTILIZED ARE BEING DISCOVERED !
Check out the bar graph from hubbertpeak.com (Dr. Campbell's, I believe?) :


My take : We are on borrowed time vis a vis crude oil....it's all past discoveries. (gray shaded bars)

White shaded bars are future discoveries that have yet to be extracted.....we know the reservoirs there based on S.P., Resistivity, gamma and other geophysical logs. But, it's still to be run to production.

But, since it is only natural human psychology to only think in terms of 5 to 10 years, at the max., lot of specialists think it's over........

THE GLOBAL OIL CRISIS HAS JUST STARTED....yeah, it will be eased, just like crude oil's dropping $/barrel -wise ....but it's just a temporary respite 'cuz a few OPEC countries, led by the Saudis are revving up the oil production.

But within 5 years......DEMAND WILL FAR OUTREACH SUPPLY.


But, here's a silver lining behind every cloud :
Petro-stocks/funds, etc will be SWINGING WILDLY, one can make money buying & selling on a short-term basis.
IF THEY KNOW THE RESERVOIR POTENTIAL THE COMPANY HAS BOUGHT ;-)

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Do the companies reveal the amount of gasoline within the reservoir ? Or is it fudged up.

D. Dutta-Roy said...

Company gives true figures vis a vis OIL RESERVES /OIL POTENTIAL.
This is because:
It can be checked easily using geophysical tools like resistivity, S.P., gamma & other neutron, etc. logs.
+ drilling core bits, etc...
Also, most importantly, a medium to big sized company will not LET IT'S REPUTATION GO DOWN. So it does give good reports on oil reserves / potential.

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