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Thursday, March 20, 2008


My words have come true in the past...check out last post when I PREDICTED oil prices will rose sharply to $112 / barrel.

But then, it is for history to judge the veracity of the statement I just made.

The main reason might be a QUALITATIVE ONE...maybe since just a few policymakers cannot control the economy of 25% of the world's population....maybe the system put too much pressure on the inhabitants of the mountains and plateaus of China, that make up more than two-thirds of its geographical area....maybe something far, far more fundamental.

But then, here's the QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS :

  1. Such a vast economy just CANNOT BE CONTROLLED by a handful of people. It needs a huge number of economists. Who have to have freedom. Freedom to collect neutral data, statistically analyse them neutrally, publish their findings neutrally. DEMOCRACY is needed to make the right decisions on the basis of their findings.
  2. Massive disparity between the urban and the rural in China. The Chinese urban rich people live in plush apartments, enjoying lifestyles that are the envy of even middle class people of developed countries. The rural poor are forced to work in coal mines just to have two square meals a day. Thousands die in a year from coal mine collapses. Bloggers, check the Net for correct figures.
  3. Environmental degradation of the WORST KIND has occured in China, thanks to human greed. Thsi has resulted in collapse of eco-systems, collapse of rural economies, collapse of rural cultures.
  4. Uprising. In the Plateaus of Tibet (Xizang Province) they started. It has spread like wildfire. To parts of Sinkiang (Xinjiang Uygur) ethnic Tibetan groups and even Qinghai province. In exasperation, even the most non-violent, ever-smiling Dalai Lama has been attacked. Dalai Lama....IMHO, one of the most wise man on earth today. And the uprising has spread, and spreading......My friend Tsen Hsu once said, "One day, A wind shall come down from the mountains of China, my friends. That will sweep away the greed of the plains people of China, who control the country."
  5. Oil. The fastest growing Chinese economy needs a vast amount of petroleum. Its foreign policy is so rigid that it will cease to get oil at the right prices from the OPEC countries.
  6. Islamic fundamentalists are growing in power in Eastern Turkestan part of Sinkiang (Xinjiang Uygur), infiltration from Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan Northern Areas and Afghanistan follows. This will be a MAJOR threat to the Chinese.
  7. Massive military spending for developing Missile Defense System, ICBMs, IRBMs and conventional weapons will put strain on the economy.
  8. Cheap "artificially controlled" prices of Chinese goods. As capitalism comes into China, the demand and supply chain will result in prices suddenly spiralling out of control.
  9. China's stock markets are globally linked nowadays. How can you insulate it, how long can a handful of people insulate it from the GLOBAL CAUSES AND RESULTS ??? Tha markets will collapse.
  10. The rural economy is already COLLAPSING.

End- Result : Massive collapse of the TIGHTLY-CONTROLLED, TWO-SYSTEM ECONOMY OF CHINA. Not a mere recession...not even an economic depression....but a total collapse.

BTW, a trillion $ question : how come the Dalai Lama never stops smiling -)

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