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Monday, March 5, 2007

Future Political Destabilization in India?

Recent assembly elections were held in Uttarakhand, Punjab & Manipur. The result? The Congress lost power in Uttarakhand & Punjab, but held on to Manipur. Now what does that mean?

Anti-incumbency was not the only cause. The underlying reason was the failure of the state governments on the economic front.

Price hikes of 9% (real value)…not talking of Consumer Price Index or Wholesale Price Index, only. WPI & CPI do not reflect real inflation. This over a sustained period of time caused angst among the voters.

The UPA government came to power in May 2004 highlighting failure of the NDA on the rural front. So obviously, there was great expectation amongst rural voters. But Congress failed miserably managing this front. So, in the Assembly elections rural voters went the BJP way.

In the urban areas, the UPA lost due to rising unemployment & rampant administrative corruption.

So, what does this project?

The coming U.P. elections are going to be a bad for the Congress also.

Remember, Congress has only 145 out of 543 Lok Sabha seats. It is artificially “supported” by the Communists, Samajwadis & most importantly other regional parties.

The Communists would come in a collision course with Congress due to differences in economic policy.
The Samajwadis are already in conflict with Congress after withdrawal of support in U.P.
The major blow would be the non-support of regional parties of South India, especially Tamil Nadu. (where also Congress is becoming unpopular).

The magic figure is 273…halfway of 543.

Communists are “blackmailing” the Congress.
SP has withdrawn power. After U.P., it will definitely never give support.
The key lies with the regional parties. DMK+ has a huge number of seats. If they decide they can get better governance with the BJP in centre, it can withdraw power. Or at least threaten to.

Which means…..UPA can fall short of 273
The key lies with DMK+……if they withdraw, the Left Front do not have the numbers to prop up the government.

The present government falls. Another mid-term elections…..

But this scenario is based on many “if-what” scenarios……it’s difficult to predict a total fall.

But I’m 100% sure, Congress would be in severe pressure for the next 2 years it is in power in India. (till May 2009 Lok Sabha elections, that is)

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