Conservatives may scrape through

3 results gone to Labour Party.
Now, I have done not even 1 percent the usual psephological analysis I do, but it seems Consevatives may scrape through.

Reasons:

1. > 50% were dissatisfied with the unemployment factor......that's one of the number 1 or munber 2 reasons that count in elections. Number 2 could be security/law and order situation in aparticular country/state. In case of UK, that is not much of a factor, though.
2. 3 results declared show Labour Party winning, but much greater "swing factor" in favor of Conservatives.
3.Would the Lib Dems cut into the Labour Party vote bank ? Since both have a lot in common, so there would be vote division. Advantage Conservatives.

Uh oh...I again took a sneak peak ....9 results declared, Conservatives 0.
But swing factor is +4% in favor of Conservatives.....still hold they'll probably scrape thru' , as others' swing factors show negative.

German and EU Elections

I have this personal theory about psephology. (Election Prediction Outcome).

When a country / set of countries does well economically for a sustained period, the centre-right parties do well.

When that country , due to some reason, is doing bad on an economic front, the people would vote centre-left.

This is because, rising unemployment and other issues would lead the people to make a change towards a system that would provide them witha "safety bracket".

So, take a look at the German and EU Elections.

Because Europe is relatively doing good compared to other countries,

in Germany the centre-right CDU/CSU party led by Merkel won.

Same happened in the case of the European Union. The elections were won by the right of centre European People's Party (EPP).

In case of the U.S., drastic economic downturn caused the Democrats to overturn the Republicans. People were looking for "safety brackets" with respect to jobs.

India is the most complicated , and here, IMHO, the rural economy not deteriorating caused the centrist Congress party to win.